Analysis: Bitcoin's on-chain realized market capitalization returns to growth, with its price recovery backed by fundamentals.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. published a note stating that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap returned to positive territory on August 24 after 87 consecutive days of negative growth, and rose to +0.88% on September 6, indicating that BTC’s on-chain capital base is recovering. Bitcoin’s Realized Cap currently stands at around $1.068 trillion, having increased by approximately $9.36 billion over the past 30 days, and has continued to rise even as BTC fluctuated around $80,000 recently. Adler Jr. noted that this shows the previously contracting Realized Cap is improving. However, this metric briefly turned positive back in May before falling again, so it remains to be seen whether the current capital growth can be sustained. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Realized Premium Z-Score dropped from 4.17 during BTC’s rally on August 19 to 0.90 on September 6, though it still remains in positive territory. Adler Jr. explained that the metric’s decline does not signal a weakening price trend, as the anomaly relative to the 28-day average naturally decreases as new price levels gradually enter calculations. Overall, current on-chain signals are positive but have not yet confirmed a sustained bull market: Realized Cap is growing, while BTC has held onto its prior gains. Going forward, if the 30-day Realized Cap change remains positive and is accompanied by further expansion of Realized Cap, this will further support the continuation of the recovery; if the metric falls back below zero, it will weaken this outlook.