Wintermute: BTC’s Short-Term Direction Hard to Judge, September FOMC Will Be Key Catalyst

Wintermute stated in a report that Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting has pushed market expectations for a September interest rate hike to 61.9%. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting will serve as a key catalyst for risk assets, including the crypto market. In August’s cross-asset performance: 20+ year US Treasuries rose 1.01%, the S&P 500 gained 0.47%, Nasdaq advanced 0.42%, BTC climbed 0.10%, ETH dropped 0.86%, while gold and Brent crude oil rose 3.42% and 4.31% respectively. Over the past week, BTC has consolidated its prior 23% rally, briefly breaking above $81,000 before falling back below $78,000 after Warsh’s speech, ending the week up 0.10%. Wintermute noted that despite the Fed’s hawkish remarks, a pullback in chip stocks, and month-end factors, BTC has not reversed its earlier breakout, with overall performance remaining relatively positive. However, $82,000 has repeatedly acted as a resistance zone. Current underallocation to BTC by some investors remains an important support for its price. BTC’s key current levels are $75,000 (support) and $82,000 (resistance); if it closes below $72,000 on a weekly basis, there will be no clear support below that level. In the short term, a healthier move would see BTC retest the $75,000 level, complete deleveraging, before attempting to break higher. Wintermute added that the first two weeks of September will significantly impact market direction. The non-farm payrolls data due September 4 could notably shift interest rate expectations ahead of the FOMC meeting. Two key signals will be watched for any change in its outlook: weekly net outflows from BTC ETFs, or a weekly close of BTC below $72,000.