Serenity questions SIVE's development strategy, arguing that it should pivot to the U.S. market, otherwise its valuation will be stuck.

Serenity has published an analysis note questioning Sivers Photonics (SIVE)’s development strategy, arguing the company remains overly focused on the Swedish market, while US investors likely prioritize its future growth potential and actual economic value derived from orders. Serenity noted US analysts are more inclined to focus on the implications of SIVE’s recent two wafer fab capacity allocations, and how much revenue and operating leverage these capacities will unlock amid supply bottlenecks and rising Average Selling Prices (ASP). Additionally, factors such as the 2028 volume ramp-up of CPO players including NPO/CPO, pluggable optical modules, and Ayar, ELS products’ collaboration with O-Net, and the scale and potential Total Addressable Market (TAM) of six new pluggable customers also warrant in-depth discussion. By contrast, local market concerns center on issues like “how to stem the bleeding”, why private clients cannot be disclosed, why the focus on transceivers, and what the “business opportunity pipeline” actually entails, forcing management to spend substantial time addressing these queries instead of discussing future growth. Serenity believes the more time SIVE devotes to the Swedish market, the more its valuation will be constrained by Swedish market investment logic, hence the need to actively showcase future growth opportunities and their underlying economic value to US investors.