Analyst: $1.6 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiring Today, Low Volatility Expected

May 22: Per data from Greeks.live, a total of 21,000 Bitcoin (BTC) options expired today. The put-call ratio for these contracts hit 0.66, with a maximum pain point of $78,500 and a notional value of $1.6 billion. On the Ethereum (ETH) side, 129,000 ETH options are also set to expire today, carrying a put-call ratio of 0.92, a maximum pain point of $2,200, and a notional value of $2.8 billion. Adam, an analyst at Greeks.live, noted that Bitcoin wrapped up a month-and-a-half-long rebound this week, though on-chain support for the asset remains strong. The broader market has stayed relatively quiet with low investor attention so far this period. Notably, less than 5% of both BTC and ETH options are expiring this week—delivery volumes are light on both fronts. For BTC, the small delivery volume paired with the maximum pain point being close to the current price means the gamma/pin effect will be more pronounced around expiry. ETH, meanwhile, is seeing half the delivery volume it had last week, and its current price sits below the maximum pain point. The brief stretch where ETH options dominated activity this month is coming to an end, with short-term implied volatility (IV) likely to fall post-expiry. Looking at key metrics: Skew has decreased slightly, while IV across major tenors is significantly lower than last week—down more than realized volatility (RV), pushing the volatility risk premium (VRP) higher. Bitcoin’s IV across all major tenors has dropped below 35%, and Ethereum’s has fallen below 50%, with further declines expected in the short term. Most trading activity here centers on structured transactions, as whales continue opening short-term, low-cost protective positions. With low volatility expectations, overall market enthusiasm is lower than anticipated.