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The probability on Polymarket of the "Sell Any Bitcoin by End of Year" strategy has surged to 90%.

2026.05.10 16:41:44

On May 10, the probability linked to a Polymarket prediction market question—“Will Strategy sell any of its held Bitcoin before year-end?”—surged to 90%, up from just 12% on May 5. Additionally, the odds of Strategy selling any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026, stand at 49%, while that figure rises to 75% for June 30, 2026. Previously, Strategy founder Michael Saylor broke the company’s longstanding “never sell” stance for the first time. During the Q1 2026 earnings call livestream, he noted the firm may sell a portion of its Bitcoin holdings to fund dividends. “We might sell some Bitcoin to pay a dividend,” Saylor said, “with the key goal of desensitizing the market and signaling that we have indeed done so.”
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