Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), US-listed crypto-related stocks continued to strengthen during intraday trading. Details: Strategy (MSTR) rose 2.11%; Circle (CRCL) gained 0.83%; MARA Holdings (MARA) surged 15.27% after announcing the acquisition of a Texas-based 2000MW computing power park project company for up to $600 million; Riot Platforms (RIOT) climbed 6.1%.

JPMorgan Chase’s analyst team noted that the market views Strategy’s Bitcoin sale plan as a key risk for the crypto sector, but it is not a major structural threat to Bitcoin. The more fundamental risk lies in tokenization, payments, and settlements increasingly taking place on permissioned infrastructure that does not rely on public blockchains. If this trend continues, the entire crypto ecosystem could face a "structural downgrade"—marked by slower transaction activity, reduced liquidity, and weaker capital inflows—ultimately weighing on Bitcoin. The analysts stated bluntly: "In our view, a more significant risk stems from the way blockchain is adopted in traditional finance, which continues to bypass public, permissionless networks." The analysts explained that institutional adoption so far has clearly favored permissioned chains, as they offer advantages in privacy, KYC/AML controls, governance, throughput, legal accountability, and regulatory certainty, posing a competitive threat to public blockchains like Ethereum. If tokenized deposits are widely adopted—especially in non-transferable forms favored by regulators—it could reduce demand for stablecoins in institutional payments and settlements; SWIFT’s blockchain initiative and central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects such as the digital euro and digital renminbi further strengthen regulated alternatives. In the roughly $500 billion tokenized real-world assets market, while Ethereum currently holds a certain share, this likely reflects early-stage experimentation rather than the market’s long-term structure. As institutional adoption grows, issuance, custody, settlement, and lifecycle management will likely be conducted more on private or permissioned infrastructure that meets requirements for identity, confidentiality, and operational resilience, with public blockchains used only for distribution and limited secondary trading.

On-chain investigator Specter has issued a community security alert, warning of potential fund misappropriation risks associated with the CodexField project on BNB Chain. On-chain tracking shows the project has amassed over $85 million in funds. Specter detected abnormal on-chain fund flows yesterday: a wallet bridged 17.3 million USDT from TRON to Ethereum, then swapped the tokens for DAI via Bitget Swap on Polygon. So far, $6.5 million has been transferred out, while the remaining $10.8 million is still in transit. The funds were originally bridged from Ethereum to TRON roughly six months ago, and the source wallet is linked to CodexField’s deposit contract. Below are key addresses for users to verify on their own: EVM: 0xBc606358910b3720d136F0d4Ce12b759C270747a TRON: TQNTEYadFVVQeobBtctSjurJ5RpfBsTmqh, TAzpg8L1WkkzCxxZk8TYnvaRYahehh52MK Related deposit contract: 0x9E6A75b546B65E7B9D34E2c9aB8Fe224B9aA52AA Additional red flags: The project requires a minimum $100 deposit for participation. Blockchain security tool Blocksec MetaSuites initially labeled the deposit contract as "Fake CodexField", but Specter’s follow-up investigation found the contract is actually operated by the CodexField team itself. The project uses multiple domains and subdomains to collect user deposits, and the team previously shared these domains via official channels. Its fund flow pattern is unusual, deviating from standard fund management practices: the project bridges funds across multiple blockchains, routes them through intermediate wallets, and ultimately sends assets to centralized exchanges. Specter noted that based on on-chain activity, the project warrants high vigilance. It advises all users interacting with CodexField to exercise extreme caution until the team provides a transparent explanation of its fund movements.

QIZ Security, a crypto posture and post-quantum cryptography (PQC) management platform, announced the completion of a $17 million seed funding round, led by Bessemer Venture Partners and Merlin Ventures, with participation from Evolution Equity Partners, Qbeat Ventures, Singtel Innov8, and Qino Cyber Capital. The capital will be used to accelerate product R&D and market expansion. QIZ Security was co-founded by Ben Volkow, Lenny Ridel, and Itan Barmes; the team has years of experience in cybersecurity, enterprise services, and post-quantum transformation, with Barmes previously leading Deloitte’s global quantum cybersecurity readiness team. Its platform helps enterprises identify and assess crypto asset risks and implement remediation measures, and is currently applied in industries including finance, telecommunications, healthcare, and critical infrastructure. It has also established partnerships with Cisco, AWS, Google, CrowdStrike, Deloitte, EY, and IBM, among others.

Hyperliquid Policy Center (HPC) and Phantom have jointly submitted comments to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in response to the agency’s request for feedback on whether existing rules keep pace with the evolution of financial technology, proposing to explicitly extend the distinction between "building tools" and "operating regulated businesses" to on-chain markets. The comments note that software engineers have been developing matching engines for regulated futures trading platforms for decades, and the CFTC has never classified them as trading platform operators. However, developers in the digital asset sector have long lacked such clarity, forcing many to opt for offshore development. The current CFTC, led by Chairman Selig, is working to address this gap and carve out room for innovation for fintech firms in digital asset and derivatives markets. The two entities put forward three key recommendations: First, explicitly confirm that merely publishing on-chain protocol software itself does not require registration — a factor often decisive for engineers when choosing where to develop. Second, establish a clear path for the CFTC’s registration bodies to operate regulated functions using on-chain infrastructure, enabling trading platforms and clearinghouses to replace decades-old legacy systems with transparent infrastructure. Third, formalize Phantom’s recent no-action letter into official rules, eliminating the need for self-custody wallet providers to apply for approved exemptions on a case-by-case basis. HPC and Phantom stress that self-custody and transparent on-chain systems can embed investor protection directly into technology, while regulated intermediaries retain responsibility for issues that technology cannot resolve independently. This approach will bring the next generation of financial markets within reach of U.S. consumers.

Micron Technology plans to increase spending on its new U.S. factory to $250 billion to meet the surging demand for memory chips driven by the global artificial intelligence boom. The move adds $50 billion to Micron’s previously announced $200 billion commitment to expanding domestic U.S. chip manufacturing, covering projects in New York, Idaho, and Virginia. The expenditure is expected to run through 2035, and will help the company achieve its target of producing 40% of its DRAM products in the U.S. within the next decade.