Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

According to OnchainLens monitoring, the Coldcard wallet vulnerability incident has affected over 5,200 addresses so far, with a total of approximately 1,816 Bitcoin (worth around $114 million) stolen. The confirmed first through third attack waves resulted in combined losses of 1,367.05 Bitcoin (about $88.6 million). The fourth wave of attacks, which leveraged pattern matching, caused 462 suspected victims to lose 388.93 Bitcoin. On-chain data is currently being used to identify related attack clusters; the attackers have not yet transferred the stolen funds. The attack cluster remains active, with its latest transaction recorded just minutes ago.

Binance will delist four spot trading pairs—QNT/BTC, RPL/USDC, SIGN/BNB, and SKL/USDC—at 11:00 UTC+8 on August 7, 2026, primarily due to insufficient liquidity or trading volume. The delisting only affects these specific pairs; the related tokens remain tradable on other pairs, and the corresponding spot trading bot services will be terminated simultaneously. Users are advised to handle their pending orders and bot configurations in advance.

Binance officially launched its Bitcoin-collateralized "Lite Loan" micro-loan product today, allowing eligible users to borrow up to 1,000 USDT using BTC as collateral without selling their Bitcoin. The product targets users with small, short-term funding needs: the pledged Bitcoin can come from Simple Earn flexible products and continue to earn returns, while the borrowed USDT can be used for trading.

U.S. Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut sent a joint letter to the SEC chairman on Monday, demanding an investigation into the Trump-themed meme coin TRUMP to determine if the coin facilitated any illegal fraud or improper gains. Warren and Blumenthal stated bluntly in the letter: "We are concerned that President Trump’s meme coin scheme may constitute an illegal scam." Trump launched the meme coin several days before his January 2025 inauguration, with 80% held by entities affiliated with the Trump Organization. Its peak valuation was roughly $9 billion, and it is now worth less than $400 million. Data from crypto analytics platform Nansen shows nearly 1 million investors have suffered losses on the coin, with total losses hitting $3.8 billion as of the end of June. The letter links the TRUMP meme coin to a rug pull, describing it as a "soft rug pull"—a scenario where market capitalization support fades gradually rather than collapsing abruptly.

Italy’s largest bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, disclosed in a 13F filing that it cut its holdings of IBIT common shares from 646,809 to 40,723 at the end of the second quarter, a 93.7% drop. The lender also reduced the underlying share count of its IBIT call options from 2,496,500 to 18,000, a 99.3% decline. While trimming its Bitcoin spot ETF positions, Intesa Sanpaolo added IBIT put options and lifted its stake in the iShares Staked Ethereum ETF from 116,200 shares to 349,600, an increase of just over threefold.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio delivered his sternest market warning on the "CEO Diary" podcast, bluntly stating that the AI frenzy has pushed markets into bubble territory similar to the 1929 and 2000 bubbles. When the host referenced Jeremy Grantham’s earlier claim that the current period is "the biggest investment bubble in U.S. history," Dalio responded directly: "He’s right." Dalio outlined the core contradiction of bubble dynamics with a simple scenario: Investors buy AI company shares for $100, then borrow against them as collateral. When the market reverses and everyone needs cash simultaneously, prices could crash to $25, while the loans remain due. "Wealth is not money," Dalio emphasized. "You see many people getting rich, but wealth can’t be spent—you have to sell it to get cash. Many inexperienced investors flooding into leveraged ETFs in today’s market are essentially gambling." Dalio noted two typical bubble-popping forces: rising interest rates increasing debt financing costs, and a surge in stock issuance. The latter is already a reality: SpaceX went public in June but trades below its issue price; S&P projects its free cash flow will stay negative through 2029. Anthropic has secretly filed for an IPO, set to debut as early as October with a nearly $1 trillion valuation. OpenAI has also filed an application, targeting over $1 trillion. Dalio’s more urgent warning is not about the market itself, but the political and geopolitical conflicts that could follow a bubble burst. The U.K. changing six prime ministers in seven years is a symptom of government funding drying up and voters clashing over how to raise money, he said. An AI bubble burst could trigger political turmoil at the end of an 80-year cycle. Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs and Apollo have recently issued similar signals, pointing to an earnings bubble in tech stocks and the breakdown of the 60/40 investment portfolio strategy that worked for 40 years.