Federal Reserve: Short-term inflation expectations in the US cooled in July, while consumers grew more optimistic about the job market.
The latest survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that Americans’ overall expectations for the U.S. job market improved in July, while their inflation outlook also shifted. Consumers’ one-year ahead inflation expectation edged down slightly to 3.6% from 3.7%. Their three-year and five-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.3% and 3% respectively. The perceived probability that unemployed workers will find a new job rose to 46.2%, the highest level so far this year. This increase was most notable among individuals with a high school diploma or less and households earning less than $50,000 annually. Consumers grew more optimistic about the stock market, with the probability they assign to stock prices rising a year from now hitting its highest level since April 2021 in this survey series.
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State Taxation Administration of China responds to new overseas taxation policy: Residents’ overseas income is subject to tax in accordance with the law, and this is not a new policy.
China’s State Taxation Administration (STA) responded to recent discussions on taxing Hong Kong insurance gains, stating that Chinese tax residents must fulfill their tax obligations on global income in accordance with the law. Overseas insurance gains fall within the scope of taxable income; this is not a new policy nor is it specifically targeting the Hong Kong insurance market. The STA noted that individual residents’ overseas insurance gains and other investment income should be declared and taxed in accordance with the law, and relevant rules treat overseas income from different countries and regions equally. Caixin reported yesterday that, with the normalization of Common Reporting Standard (CRS) information exchange, Chinese tax authorities can now fully access dividend and cash value data of overseas insurance policies, gradually filling gaps in tax collection and management. Currently, the collection of taxes on insurance gains from overseas income has been initiated.
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Jane Street plans to transfer $11 billion in public debt to external investors to gain flexibility for further AI investments.
According to a Financial Times report, Jane Street is in talks with investors including Pimco to shift roughly $11 billion in debt from public markets to private instruments via a private credit deal. Analysts note that the debt move is aimed at reducing quarterly financial disclosure requirements to numerous creditors, while giving the company greater flexibility to further invest in AI infrastructure such as data centers and related technologies.
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UBS: Gold rally has solid support, gold prices expected to approach $5,000 next year.
UBS Chief Investment Officer Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and her team stated: “This round of gold rally is underpinned by fundamentals. We expect gold prices to approach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027.” Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran in late February, gold prices came under pressure and dipped temporarily. UBS strategists noted that near-term risks persist: if oil prices rise, or if the market prices in a more hawkish Federal Reserve monetary policy and higher bond attractiveness, gold prices will face headwinds. However, the bank remains optimistic about gold’s medium- to long-term outlook. Hoffmann-Burchardi added that her team anticipates inflation will gradually ease, the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady this year, and will restart its rate-cut cycle in 2027. “Rising expectations of lower policy rates will likely push down real yields, weigh on the U.S. dollar, and in turn boost gold investment demand, creating a more favorable market environment for gold.”
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Kalshi launches AI risk control tool Blanket to help small businesses hedge operational risks through prediction markets.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has announced the launch of an AI tool called Blanket, designed to help small businesses hedge operational risks—including those related to weather, energy prices, tariffs, and elections—using event contracts. Developed by independent fintech entrepreneur Lauris Zminsky, Blanket operates on Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated prediction market but is not an in-house product of Kalshi. The tool does not directly execute trades or process funds; instead, it leverages AI to analyze the risks faced by businesses and recommend Kalshi event contracts suitable for hedging.
6 minutes ago
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