Analysis: Binance Bitcoin order absorption ratio drops to one-year low, extreme pessimism could signal a short-term reversal
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin has accelerated its pullback in recent days, dropping 17.5% from its recent peak of $87,400 — a correction relatively common in a bull market phase. However, bearish sentiment in the derivatives space is intensifying. Binance’s order book buy-sell ratio has fallen to a 1+ year low of 0.85, with sell orders dominating the platform’s trading volume. Meanwhile, the monthly average of this metric has plummeted to 0.97, hitting a new low since February this year when Bitcoin plunged below $60,000 and accelerated its pullback. The analyst explained that this data reflects derivatives traders are trapped in extreme bearish sentiment. Still, such extreme pessimism often occurs in the later stage of a pullback; in the short term, this indicator typically acts as a bullish "contrarian signal". When market panic is fully priced in, it often signals an upcoming rebound opportunity.
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Data: Bitcoin is nearing a breakdown below the on-chain average cost line, and has remained below the cost basis of short-term holders for five consecutive days.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote that Bitcoin once fell to around $68,000 and has stayed below the short-term holder realized price of $75,429 for five consecutive days. The price-to-cost ratio is approximately 0.90, indicating that short-term holders as a whole face an unrealized loss of around 10%, and the gap between the spot price and the average cost of recent buyers has further widened. Over the same period, the MVRV Z-Score dropped 0.13 week-over-week to 0.54. The indicator remains positive, but the market’s overall unrealized profit buffer is narrowing. If it falls below zero, it means the price has dropped below the on-chain average cost. The analyst noted that when this indicator turned negative in late 2022, it was accompanied by the final capitulation sell-off of the bear market. The last time the indicator approached this reading was on August 19, when Bitcoin traded at around $69,335, and it rose by about 14% a week later. Over the past year, the indicator has been at or below this level on 38% of trading days. Bitcoin is still in a correction; if it can sustainably rise back above the short-term holder realized price, it will reinforce the view that the market is building support. If the MVRV Z-Score breaks below zero, it signals deeper pressure.
8 minutes ago
Promised Not to Store User Data, But Secretly Did So? Fireworks Hacked, Notion AI Chat Logs Leaked
Beating AI News Flash: New developments have emerged in the data breach incident involving AI inference and model training platform Fireworks. Notion confirmed that hackers obtained real chat records of some Notion AI users, including user queries and AI-generated responses. Affected workspaces account for less than 1% of the total. These chat logs come from Notion’s Insights feature. Notion sends user-AI conversations to Fireworks for analysis to help enterprise administrators understand how employees use AI.
Notion stated that Fireworks had committed in its contract not to retain such data. However, investigations found that Fireworks actually stored parts of the chat content, which were ultimately accessed by hackers. On November 2, Fireworks initially notified Notion that only fictional test data was affected. Notion immediately cut ties with Fireworks on November 3. It was not until November 8 that Fireworks further confirmed real customer data had also been accessed.
Notion said the vast majority of leaked chat logs do not include user names, company or workspace information, but the conversations themselves may still contain sensitive content such as trade secrets and passwords. The company has notified affected customers, advising them to review their chat records and change any potentially compromised passwords and API keys.
Currently, Notion has disabled the Insights feature and no longer provides open-source AI models via Fireworks. The company is verifying whether other AI service providers are actually complying with their commitments not to retain customer data.
8 minutes ago
Trump: Considering short-term military action against Cuba, hopes to resolve the Cuba issue before leaving office.
US President Donald Trump said in an interview that he would consider launching a short-term military operation against Cuba. When asked by the host if he would approve a one-week operation requiring only a small number of military forces, Trump responded that he would consider the proposal. Trump also noted that he aims to resolve the Cuba issue before leaving office and is closely monitoring the situation on the ground there.
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Analysis: Binance’s Bitcoin taker order ratio drops to a one-year low, extreme pessimism may signal a short-term reversal
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin has accelerated its pullback in recent days, falling 17.5% from its recent peak of $87,400 — a correction relatively common in bull markets. However, pessimism in the derivatives market is intensifying. Binance’s taker buy-sell ratio has dropped to a more than one-year low of 0.85, with sell orders dominating the platform’s trading volume. The monthly average of this metric has also plummeted to 0.97, marking a new low since February this year, when Bitcoin plunged below $60,000 and accelerated its pullback. The analyst noted that this data indicates derivatives traders are in extreme pessimism. However, such extreme bearish sentiment often emerges in the late stage of a pullback; in the short term, this metric typically serves as a bullish contrarian signal. Once market panic is fully priced in, it often signals an impending rebound opportunity.
8 minutes ago
Whale Accumulates 25,498 $ETH ($49.44M) Despite $11.3M Unrealized Loss, Buys 10,380 $ETH in 1 Hour
Whale 0x4cee, who made $3.66M buying low and selling high on 10,500 $ETH ($23.64M) 2 months ago, bought another 10,380 $ETH ($19.91M) just 1 hour ago.
The whale has now accumulated 25,498 $ETH ($49.44M) at an average price of $2,382 and is sitting on $11.3M in unrealized losses.
8 minutes ago
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