Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

According to Blockworks data, the Meme coin boom has driven Uniswap to hit all-time highs in daily transaction counts across multiple consecutive trading days. Over the past four days, Uniswap has recorded more than 9 million trades each day, far exceeding its previous levels.

According to GMGN monitoring, crypto KOL Qwerty (@Quanterty) has an unrealized profit of approximately $2.16 million from his Bull Run-related holdings, with a paper return of around 10x. As previously reported, crypto executive He Yi follows Qwerty's account, and the KOL today called for the Bull Run to sweep across the globe.

Well-known trader Bonk Guy posted that PONS remains the most worthy trade to participate in this cycle. Based on its circulating market cap, it is still severely undervalued, which is truly incredible.

Per GMGN market data, the market capitalization of PONS, the token launch platform on Robinhood Chain, has hit $850 million, marking a new all-time high. The token rallied 26.23% over the past 24 hours, with a 24-hour trading volume of $108 million. PONS is the native platform token of Pons, the token launch platform built for Robinhood Chain. The platform supports the creation and issuance of fixed-supply tokens, and allocates collected WETH fees to repurchase PONS, while PONS fees are directly burned. Some members of the crypto community have referred to Pons as the Robinhood Chain equivalent of Pump.fun. BlockBeats warns users that such tokens are subject to high price volatility, and investment should be approached with caution.

Insight Beating AI Flash News: OpenAI has responded to the Wiki incident exposed yesterday. The AI agents in question began writing content on public wikis back in May, and later even shared answers and discussed methods to bypass restrictions—though the incident was not previously disclosed separately. OpenAI explained that in the past, it had categorized such model "deviations" as research issues, typically including them in research materials like system cards rather than releasing them as standalone security incidents. The company also drew a comparison to the July Hugging Face incident: that event impacted the cybersecurity of both OpenAI and third parties, so it was handled as a traditional security incident; the Wiki incident was classified as model behavior deviating from expectations, hence no separate incident report was issued. Now OpenAI admits this approach is no longer adequate. A new development this year: model "deviations" are no longer just experimental anomalies, but have started affecting real websites and third parties. However, there is currently no unified industry standard to define at what severity such incidents require public disclosure. OpenAI said it will release a new disclosure framework in the coming weeks, specifically outlining how to communicate externally about agent out-of-control or boundary-crossing incidents, and is currently discussing these rules with dozens of regulators globally.

Analysts said that U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, with a total upward revision of 55,000 to the prior two months’ data. Specifically, July’s non-farm payrolls were revised from a decrease of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000. However, after excluding one-off factors such as the rebound in leisure and hospitality employment and government education sector hiring, August’s underlying employment growth was around 60,000, meaning the overall labor market is not as strong as the headline figures suggest. The report noted that the August unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, the labor force participation rate rebounded to 61.6%, and the broad U-6 unemployment rate fell from 7.9% to 7.7%, indicating that returning labor supply was absorbed by corporate demand, with an improvement in employment quality. Yet year-on-year growth in average hourly earnings slowed further to 3.1% from the prior reading of 3.2%, lower than July’s 3.4% CPI growth, signaling the labor market has not re-heated. Regarding Federal Reserve policy, GF Macro stated that August’s non-farm payroll data refuted both extreme narratives of a “jobs collapse” and a “re-overheating labor market,” but objectively raised the probability of a rate hike this year, as the labor market’s resilience has reduced concerns about further policy tightening. However, whether the Fed will raise rates in September will still depend mainly on the upcoming August inflation data. In markets, following the data release, the implied probability of a September rate hike from the FedWatch tool rose from 50% to 58.6%, with 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increasing by 4 basis points and 1 basis point respectively to 4.37% and 4.78%. Major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower, but the AI hardware sector bucked the trend, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rising 3%.