Lookonchain APP

App Store

Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

2025.04.16 13:32:48

On April 16th, Coinbase Research presented a report indicating that both Bitcoin and the COIN50 Index have fallen beneath their respective 200-day moving averages. This suggests that the market might be in the initial stage of a long-term downward trend. This aligns with the trend of the total market capitalization decline and the contraction of VC funding. Both of these are key characteristics of a potential "crypto winter." The report points out that numerous signs may imply that extreme negative sentiment has emerged as global tariffs are being implemented and there is a possibility of further escalation. This indicates that a new "crypto winter" may be commencing. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency venture capital in the first quarter of 2025 rebounded from the previous quarter but still remains 50-60% below the peak levels of the 2021-2022 cycle. This significantly restricts new capital from entering the ecosystem, especially in altcoins. All these structural pressures stem from the broader macroeconomic environment's uncertainty. As traditional risk assets face continuous resistance due to fiscal austerity and tariff policies, this leads to decision-making paralysis. Despite some unique favorable regulatory factors, the path to crypto recovery remains arduous, even in the face of the poor performance of the stock market. The interaction of these factors makes the outlook for the digital asset space challenging, and caution may still be necessary in the short term (perhaps in the next 4-6 weeks). However, the report also advises investors to adopt a tactical market strategy and remain optimistic about the second half of 2025.
Relevant content

US Stock Market Close: Three Major Indexes All Up Over 1%, Nasdaq Rises for the 13th Straight Day to Hit a New Record High

U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, April 18: the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 1.79%, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.52%. The Nasdaq notched its 13th straight trading day of gains, marking its longest winning streak since January 1992. Among major tech names: Apple (AAPL.O) climbed 2.5%, Tesla (TSLA.O) added 3%, Meta Platforms (META.O) rose 1.7%, while Netflix (NFLX.O) dropped nearly 10%.

2 hours ago

Iranian Foreign Ministry: Never Considered Transferring Enriched Uranium to the United States

April 18 – An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Iran has never considered transferring enriched uranium to the U.S. as an option, adding it rejects proposals from U.S. officials and media on the Iranian nuclear issue. An Iranian official noted Tehran and Washington are drafting a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to outline a comprehensive framework for a final permanent peace agreement. The official expressed optimism the MoU will be signed during upcoming negotiations in Pakistan in the coming days. He also said the MoU sets a 60-day window for follow-up talks to advance the final agreement.

2 hours ago

Iranian Foreign Ministry: Non-Military Vessels Allowed to Pass Through the Strait of Hormuz

On April 17, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei announced that in light of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, Iran will honor its earlier commitment this month to allow non-military vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz. However, these vessels must use Iran’s designated waterway and coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Navy. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported that Baghaei warned the U.S. naval blockade would be deemed a violation of the ceasefire agreement. If the blockade persists, Iran will take necessary countermeasures. Baghaei also urged the media and public not to fall for the enemy’s propaganda tactics, noting the enemy often makes contradictory statements in a single day to manipulate public opinion. He emphasized Iran is the “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz and will never compromise on protecting the interests and rights of the Iranian people.

2 hours ago

Federal Reserve Governor Waller Adopts Cautious Stance on Rate Cut, Warns of Long-Term Inflation Risk

April 18, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he’s cautious about near-term interest rate cuts due to an energy shock from the Iran conflict, warning the unrest could sustainably impact inflation. In his remarks, Waller outlined two key scenarios: 1. **If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows normalize**: Officials can look past the energy price surge and shift focus to a weakening job market later this year. “If that happens, I think underlying inflation could keep falling toward the 2% target—meaning I’d be wary of cuts now, and more likely to support a cut later this year when the outlook is stable,” he noted. 2. **Risk of prolonged conflict**: Waller warned oil prices and markets have underestimated this risk. “On inflation, the longer the conflict drags on and energy prices stay high, the more likely those costs will seep into other prices as businesses factor energy expenses into their pricing,” he said. He added that if prolonged conflict unfolds al

2 hours ago

Iranian Foreign Minister Says Hormuz Strait is Open, Multiple Oil Tankers Sail Through

April 18th: Within hours of Iran’s foreign minister announcing the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, at least eight oil tankers headed toward the strait quickly. Ship tracking data shows five of the tankers—previously anchored north of Dubai—began entering the waterway Friday afternoon local time, shortly after the foreign minister’s full reopening announcement. Three other tankers waiting roughly 70 miles west have also started moving toward the strait. If these vessels stay on course, their movement would mark one of the clearest signals that the Strait of Hormuz is open to non-Iranian shipping since the war broke out on February 28. Despite Iranian media reports that the country is still trying to impose restrictions, the tankers are continuing to move. (Kryptonite)

2 hours ago

The US is considering returning to Pakistan and Iran for negotiations within a few days

April 18 — As it enforces a maritime blockade on Iran, the Trump administration is weighing restarting diplomatic efforts in the coming days, possibly redeploying senior officials to Pakistan to resume talks with Iran. Arrangements are still under review, with talks potentially restarting as early as next Monday. Vice President Pence is a potential delegation head, and he may travel to Islamabad alongside Middle East Envoy Wittkof to pick up previous backchannel talks. Last week’s talks in Pakistan failed to yield a breakthrough, as the U.S. and Iran remain at odds over core issues including Iran’s nuclear activities and terms for ending tensions. Still, both the U.S. and Iran have signaled openness to continuing dialogue, meaning diplomatic channels remain open. Meanwhile, European leaders held an emergency meeting in Paris to discuss safeguarding freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, with proposed measures including escort operations, mine clearance, and intelligence s

2 hours ago