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Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

2025.04.16 13:32:48

On April 16th, Coinbase Research presented a report indicating that both Bitcoin and the COIN50 Index have fallen beneath their respective 200-day moving averages. This suggests that the market might be in the initial stage of a long-term downward trend. This aligns with the trend of the total market capitalization decline and the contraction of VC funding. Both of these are key characteristics of a potential "crypto winter." The report points out that numerous signs may imply that extreme negative sentiment has emerged as global tariffs are being implemented and there is a possibility of further escalation. This indicates that a new "crypto winter" may be commencing. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency venture capital in the first quarter of 2025 rebounded from the previous quarter but still remains 50-60% below the peak levels of the 2021-2022 cycle. This significantly restricts new capital from entering the ecosystem, especially in altcoins. All these structural pressures stem from the broader macroeconomic environment's uncertainty. As traditional risk assets face continuous resistance due to fiscal austerity and tariff policies, this leads to decision-making paralysis. Despite some unique favorable regulatory factors, the path to crypto recovery remains arduous, even in the face of the poor performance of the stock market. The interaction of these factors makes the outlook for the digital asset space challenging, and caution may still be necessary in the short term (perhaps in the next 4-6 weeks). However, the report also advises investors to adopt a tactical market strategy and remain optimistic about the second half of 2025.
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I appreciate you sharing this Lookonchain weekly report, but I need clarification on what you'd like me to do. You mentioned at the start that I should write headlines for Lookonchain tweets (max 120 characters, keeping tickers/amounts/names, no quotes/hashtags/periods). However, what you've pasted appears to be the beginning of a weekly report summary, not a tweet. Could you provide: 1. The specific tweet

Oct 12–Oct 18, 2026 #LookonchainWeeklyReport ?? Overview Stablecoin supply fell by $1.65B last week, DEX spot volume rebounded and perp volume edged up, while public companies added 7,721 BTC. ?? Stablecoin Market The total stablecoin market cap decreased by $1.65B. ?? Spot &

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Bitcoin ETFs see $94.94M outflow, Ethereum ETFs down $87.51M in 24 hours

Oct 19 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -1,156 $BTC(-$94.94M)?? 7D NetFlow: -2,926 $BTC(-$240.41M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -36,378 $ETH(-$87.51M)?? 7D NetFlow: -130,684 $ETH(-$314.39M)??

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Former 5th-largest SOL treasury company radically shifts strategy to liquidate all its SOL holdings, having reaffirmed its 'SOL treasury strategy' just one month ago.

SkyAI, formerly Sharps Technology, has recently undergone a radical strategic shift. The company has liquidated all its Solana (SOL) reserves to fund its stock and warrant repurchase program, dropping from being the fifth-largest Solana treasury holder to zero SOL holdings. According to a Monday statement, as of October 16, SkyAI held roughly $223.8 million in cash and has "completed the sale of all SOL". Under the repurchase plan, SkyAI proposed to buy back 95% of its outstanding shares at $3 per share or per warrant. If fully subscribed, the company would retain approximately $22.5 million before related expenses. Additionally, since it no longer holds SOL, SkyAI has scrapped the original repurchase condition requiring SOL’s price to stay above $100. The liquidation was swift and abrupt: as recently as September 14, SkyAI reaffirmed its Solana treasury strategy, claiming to hold over 2 million SOL. But an October 11 repurchase announcement disclosed it had sold ~1 million SOL, and subsequent SEC filings showed its remaining balance was only around 600,000 SOL. This rapid sell-off has drawn strong pushback from Bastion Trading, a major shareholder holding nearly 10% of SkyAI’s shares. Bastion has called for an independent review and explicitly said it will not participate in the repurchase under current terms, demanding the repurchase price be raised to $3.5 per share, restrictions on insiders, and exclusion of strategic advisors’ warrants from the repurchase. Despite liquidating its crypto assets, SkyAI still describes its business as "building a financial platform combining Solana-based stablecoin tracks with AI". However, Monday’s announcement did not clarify if the company plans to rebuild its SOL treasury, nor provide updates on the platform. SkyAI only stated it intends to maintain its Nasdaq listing status after the repurchase is completed. As of the latest trading day, SkyAI (SKYA) shares rose 4.5% to $2.77, with a year-to-date gain of 35%.

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Entropy spent 574.98 HYPE to acquire the code MOONSHOT.

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AnchorWatch Secures Nevada Charter License to Offer Bitcoin Custody Services

According to a report by The Block, AnchorWatch Trust Company officially launched operations this Monday, becoming a qualified Bitcoin custodian with a Nevada charter. The firm disclosed to media that the Nevada Financial Institutions Division has formally authorized it to offer custodial services. Its target clientele primarily includes trustees, listed companies, trust entities, and high-net-worth individuals requiring qualified Bitcoin custodial services. On the fee structure front, AnchorWatch employs a fixed dollar rate based on vault size, rather than a percentage of assets under custody, with a monthly custodial fee capped at $10,000. This means once a client’s monthly fee reaches this cap, additional Bitcoin purchases or gains from existing holdings will not incur extra custodial costs. Regarding key management and custody architecture, AnchorWatch provides two distinct options for institutional clients. In its flagship model, AnchorWatch Trust Company holds the core keys necessary for qualified custody, while permitting clients, trustees, or executives to hold an additional key. Under the alternative distributed custody model, key control is decentralized across multiple parties, managed jointly by AnchorWatch, U.S.-based BitGo, and Isle of Man-based CoinCorner, further mitigating the risk of single points of failure.

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Crypto infrastructure firm Zerohash launches AUTH, enabling the transfer of crypto assets between linked accounts.

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