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Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

2025.04.16 13:32:48

On April 16th, Coinbase Research presented a report indicating that both Bitcoin and the COIN50 Index have fallen beneath their respective 200-day moving averages. This suggests that the market might be in the initial stage of a long-term downward trend. This aligns with the trend of the total market capitalization decline and the contraction of VC funding. Both of these are key characteristics of a potential "crypto winter." The report points out that numerous signs may imply that extreme negative sentiment has emerged as global tariffs are being implemented and there is a possibility of further escalation. This indicates that a new "crypto winter" may be commencing. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency venture capital in the first quarter of 2025 rebounded from the previous quarter but still remains 50-60% below the peak levels of the 2021-2022 cycle. This significantly restricts new capital from entering the ecosystem, especially in altcoins. All these structural pressures stem from the broader macroeconomic environment's uncertainty. As traditional risk assets face continuous resistance due to fiscal austerity and tariff policies, this leads to decision-making paralysis. Despite some unique favorable regulatory factors, the path to crypto recovery remains arduous, even in the face of the poor performance of the stock market. The interaction of these factors makes the outlook for the digital asset space challenging, and caution may still be necessary in the short term (perhaps in the next 4-6 weeks). However, the report also advises investors to adopt a tactical market strategy and remain optimistic about the second half of 2025.
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Expert: Iran Briefly Reopens Strait, Then Recloses It; Trump's Optimism on Negotiation Prospects Questioned

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April 19th, Mehdi Tabatabaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Presidential Office, cited the reason for closing the Strait of Hormuz: “Iran allowed conditional passage through the strait to show goodwill and peaceful intentions. However, due to repeated U.S. betrayals and exploitation of this major concession for propaganda purposes, the strait has been blocked again.” (FXStreet)

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Iran Notifies Closure of the Strait of Hormuz

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Iranian Official Says Ships Paying Hormuz Strait Transit Dues Will Be Given Priority

On Saturday, April 19, a senior Iranian official told CNN that Iran will prioritize vessels paying transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz. “Given the limited number of vessels permitted to transit, Iran has decided to prioritize those that can faster comply with the new Strait of Hormuz regulations and pay the security service fee,” the official stated. The official added that vessels failing to pay the fee will face delays. Earlier Saturday, Iran reimposed restrictions on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, citing the U.S.’s “repeated betrayals” in the bilateral ceasefire. The official characterized the prioritization measure as part of Iran’s efforts to manage maritime traffic under the new order governing the strait.

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