Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

According to market sources, U.S. House Democrats plan to expand the Cryptocurrency Investor and Consumer Rights Act, introduced by Representative Maxine Waters, into a more comprehensive 2025 Market Structure Act. The proposal would grant the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) broader regulatory authority, expand its oversight role over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and introduce federal-level ethical restrictions. If advanced, the plan could impact the U.S. crypto market’s regulatory framework and the regulatory division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC.

US President Donald Trump said the Republican Party's defeat in the midterm elections was largely attributable to the Iran issue. When asked whether taking action against Iran was worthwhile, Trump responded "it was worth it" and noted he "actually had no other choice".

Serenity noted in a post that the current market deleveraging has been severe, with investors indiscriminately selling off stocks related to the AI industry chain, and some companies’ share prices have even fallen back to levels seen before major orders and earnings expectations were met. Taking storage chip firm ESMT as an example, Serenity pointed out that the company has a market cap of around $2 billion, generated $526.2 million in gross profit and $330 million in net profit in the third quarter, with net assets of approximately $937 million, including net cash of about $740 million. Based on annualized current earnings, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is only around 1.6x. Despite ongoing market concerns about a cycle peak, unsustainable earnings, and lack of competitive moats, the exit trend from DDR2 and DDR3 production lines is tightening supply. ESMT expects it may offset weakening consumer demand in the fourth quarter by raising average product prices. Serenity further noted that manufacturers including Samsung and Micron are gradually exiting DDR2 and DDR3 production lines, and Nanya Technology has also halted related lines; ESMT’s revenue is mainly derived from these two types of storage products. It believes the market has underestimated the price support brought by the contraction in traditional storage supply, and overlooked that firms like Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, and SanDisk are locking in profitability through long-term supply agreements and price floors. Serenity criticized that the market is simultaneously selling off AI and storage industry chain companies that actually generate massive cash flow, while channeling funds to firms like Walmart (with a P/E ratio of around 47x) and CrowdStrike (with a forward P/E ratio of approximately 180x). In its view, the market is currently not focusing on the actual free cash flow created by enterprises, but is trapped in indiscriminate selling.

According to CBS, after the Republican Party suffered major losses in the U.S. midterm elections, U.S. President Donald Trump is considering replacing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. No additional details are currently available regarding the timing of the personnel adjustment or potential successors.

Per TradingBeats' monitoring, a Hyperliquid trader today failed to close their positions amid falling oil prices, instead transferring remaining USDC in their wallet to the platform to add to their position. Currently, their crude oil long position’s unrealized loss has expanded to roughly $13 million. They hold 1 million BRENT contracts (valued at ~$95.9 million) and 581,000 CL contracts (valued at ~$52.2 million), with total exposure of ~$148.1 million and leverage of approximately 9x. On November 3, the same trader held 869,000 BRENTOIL contracts (valued at ~$91.1 million) and 581,000 CL contracts (valued at ~$56.2 million), for a total crude oil long exposure of ~$147.3 million and leverage of 7.8x. At that time, the combined unrealized loss of the two positions stood at around $1 million.

According to TradingBeats' monitoring, as the overall crypto market rebounds, the 25x leveraged ETH long position held by the address of "Big Brother Ma Ji" Huang Licheng has now generated an unrealized profit of over $500,000. His long position size has increased from 2,725 ETH to 6,699 ETH, with the latest entry price at $2,359.82.