Lookonchain APP

App Store

Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

2025.04.16 13:32:48

On April 16th, Coinbase Research presented a report indicating that both Bitcoin and the COIN50 Index have fallen beneath their respective 200-day moving averages. This suggests that the market might be in the initial stage of a long-term downward trend. This aligns with the trend of the total market capitalization decline and the contraction of VC funding. Both of these are key characteristics of a potential "crypto winter." The report points out that numerous signs may imply that extreme negative sentiment has emerged as global tariffs are being implemented and there is a possibility of further escalation. This indicates that a new "crypto winter" may be commencing. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency venture capital in the first quarter of 2025 rebounded from the previous quarter but still remains 50-60% below the peak levels of the 2021-2022 cycle. This significantly restricts new capital from entering the ecosystem, especially in altcoins. All these structural pressures stem from the broader macroeconomic environment's uncertainty. As traditional risk assets face continuous resistance due to fiscal austerity and tariff policies, this leads to decision-making paralysis. Despite some unique favorable regulatory factors, the path to crypto recovery remains arduous, even in the face of the poor performance of the stock market. The interaction of these factors makes the outlook for the digital asset space challenging, and caution may still be necessary in the short term (perhaps in the next 4-6 weeks). However, the report also advises investors to adopt a tactical market strategy and remain optimistic about the second half of 2025.
Relevant content

HSBC requires some existing investment clients on the Chinese mainland to submit declarations of fund sources; failure to do so in a timely manner may lead to termination of relevant services.

According to National Business Daily, after requiring new account applicants to confirm their funds come from legal overseas sources, some Hong Kong banks have begun initiating fund source declaration procedures for existing mainland Chinese investment clients. Reporters learned that HSBC Hong Kong has recently sent notices to some of its existing mainland Chinese investment clients, requiring them to submit the "Account Opening/Maintenance Declaration" via the HSBC Hong Kong App by September 12 and update their contact information. The declaration requires confirmation that investment funds originate from legal sources outside mainland China, and that the bank may disclose personal information upon request from law enforcement or regulatory authorities. The notice also states that failure to submit the declaration by August 20 may lead to suspension of investment-related services, while non-submission by September 12 may result in termination of such services. In an exclusive response to National Business Daily on August 18, an HSBC spokesperson said: "When managing investment client relationships, we adhere to relevant regulatory requirements. We are therefore inviting relevant mainland Chinese investors to provide self-declarations and confirm that the information they submitted under 'Know Your Customer' and 'Customer Due Diligence' is up-to-date and valid. This move helps us continue to deliver uninterrupted services to our clients." HSBC emphasized that the latest declaration requirement only applies to investment service clients.

9 minutes ago

Mitsui Sumitomo: Fiscal discipline and Bank of Japan interest rate hikes are key to curbing the yen’s weakness.

Mitsui Sumitomo DS Asset Management strategist Masahiro Ichikawa stated that if the Japanese government demonstrates a commitment to fiscal discipline and maintains an appropriate pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, repeated exchange rate interventions would not be necessary to curb further yen depreciation. Ichikawa added that while government interventions typically struggle to shift overall market trends, recent interventions have been effective because they successfully halted the yen’s rapid, disorderly decline toward the 164 threshold against the U.S. dollar. (Jinshi)

9 minutes ago

South Korea's KOSPI index fell more than 2% in late trading.

According to Bitget's market data, South Korea's KOSPI index fell more than 2% in late trading.

9 minutes ago

Alibaba Cloud Launches Its Third Data Center in South Korea

Alibaba Cloud has officially launched its third data center in South Korea, alongside the simultaneous rollout of Agentic AI-related services, to further meet the local market’s growing demand for AI and cloud computing. Recently, Alibaba Cloud has been steadily expanding its AI and cloud infrastructure footprint in markets including France, Japan, Malaysia, and Mexico. After this round of expansion, Alibaba Cloud’s global infrastructure will cover 30 regions and 104 availability zones, with plans to further extend its reach to countries and regions such as Brazil.

9 minutes ago

The EU is expanding its crypto sanctions regime, with plans to allow banning transactions with third-country crypto platforms that help Russia evade sanctions.

The European Union (EU) has adopted its 21st round of sanctions against Russia, expanding restrictions on the crypto industry. New measures will allow the EU to impose comprehensive transaction bans on third countries that fail to prevent Russia from using crypto assets to evade sanctions. The sanction package was approved on July 23, including restrictions targeting the Russian ruble stablecoin network A7 and related entities, and placing 14 crypto service platforms based in Georgia, Panama, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Marshall Islands, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and other regions under transaction restrictions. Additionally, the new rules will ban Russian and Belarusian citizens from holding ownership, control or management positions at crypto service providers in the EU subject to MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation). The restrictions will take effect on August 25, applying to more services including crypto asset advisory, portfolio management and client asset transfer services. The EU has also added a new crypto transaction ban mechanism targeting third countries. Under the revised regulations, if a country is deemed to have "systematically and persistently failed" to prevent its domestic crypto service providers from helping evade EU sanctions, the European Commission can add it to a restricted list and ban transactions with crypto platforms in that country. Economic sanctions expert Nick Turner said this means the EU is moving toward "secondary sanctions," which require third-country regulators to block EU sanctions targets from conducting activities via local crypto platforms. However, he noted that such measures could trigger regulatory conflicts between different jurisdictions in the future. To date, the EU has not announced any countries added to this third-country list.

9 minutes ago

Sequoia China is reportedly seeking to raise $1.2 billion for its first U.S. dollar fund since spinning off.

According to people familiar with the matter, Sequoia China has held initial discussions with investors on multiple funds, including its first U.S. dollar fund since spinning off. The sources said the investment firm is in talks to raise at least $1.2 billion for an early-stage fund, targeting companies in the AI, healthcare and consumer sectors. Sequoia China has been led by Neil Shen since 2005. They added that Sequoia China is also considering launching a growth-stage fund, though the exact timing and size remain undecided. One source added that the firm is also weighing a RMB-denominated fund. This fundraising will test the appeal of the long-established China-focused investment institution. Three entities under the original Sequoia brand were already largely independent: one focused on the U.S. and Europe, another on China, and the third on India and Southeast Asia. After the split, the China branch adopted HSG as its English name, and has invested in AI startups including Unitree Robotics, Minimax and Moonshot AI. (Cailian Press)

9 minutes ago

Popular tokens

BitcoinEthereumHyperliquidSolanaTRONBNBTetherAaveXRPPepeFartcoinOndoJupiterUniswapBonkPendleEthenaArbitrumAvalancheLidoChainlinkPolygonDogecoinCardano