Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

Jensen Huang’s sudden departure has put Nvidia’s over $500 billion "AI cycle financing machine"—built on equity investments, guarantees, and buybacks—at risk of stalling. Fourteen institutions including Goldman Sachs and UBS have successively cut Nvidia’s price targets, warning that if the company stops channeling funds to clients and suppliers, even temporarily, it could instantly drain over $500 billion in liquidity, equivalent to triggering an "AI version of quantitative tightening." Affected by this, CoreWeave, which relies heavily on Nvidia’s credit endorsement, plunged 11% on the day; the $40 billion loan it is promoting, with Nvidia as the guarantor, faces uncertainty. Over the past three years, Nvidia has effectively acted as the "lender of last resort" for the AI industry. Through a circular logic of buying chips, funding buyers, and backing landlords, it has built a massive portfolio including $99 billion in equity investments, $108.5 billion in guarantees, and $56 billion in repurchase agreements. This model has packaged emerging cloud service providers with low credit quality (such as Neocloud) as investment-grade debtors. Now that its key operator has left, some clients and Wall Street partners have begun demanding to renegotiate terms and increase backstop ratios, meaning credit spreads across the entire downstream industrial chain will widen broadly. Currently, Nvidia’s previously high-profile $500 billion financing platform has been stalled for three months, with no transactions closed yet. On November 17, interim CEO and CFO Colette Kress will host the earnings call. Kress, who tried to rein in high-risk guarantee transactions during the boom period, is now being closely watched by the market: Will the "Nvidia Bank" without Jensen Huang continue operating as usual, or quietly shift to a stock maintenance mode?

Beating AI Express News: Microsoft has officially confirmed that the global service outage lasting over 24 hours has been fully restored. Per the latest announcement, affected products including Microsoft 365 (enterprise and consumer editions), Outlook, Teams, and Copilot have all returned to normal operation. The service status page now shows "All products are operational" and email backlogs have been cleared. The outage began on November 12, impacting more than 70 countries and regions worldwide. Microsoft stated it has fixed the root cause and restored services to remaining affected customers and regions. The tech giant apologized earlier, noting the outage stemmed from a technical issue introduced during an earlier network capacity upgrade (exposed after subsequent network changes), and was unrelated to cyberattacks or AI. It also pledged to release a full post-incident report later.

Binance announced that its swap and trading pages now support the direct purchase of tokenized bStocks using up to 49 fiat currencies. Users can buy the assets via fiat balance, bank card, Apple Pay or Google Pay, without needing to convert to cryptocurrency.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, Abraxas Capital’s two hedge accounts on Hyperliquid have posted a combined cumulative profit of over $512 million, with their total short positions now reduced to $572 million. Data shows: the main address has a cumulative profit of $301.25 million and an unrealized profit of $69.38 million; the hedge address has a cumulative profit of $219.43 million and an unrealized profit of $61.16 million; the two accounts’ total unrealized profit stands at around $131 million, with current leverage ratios of 3.91x and 3.60x respectively. As a London-based asset management firm, Abraxas Capital previously held short positions exceeding $1.45 billion. The short size has now shrunk to $572 million, a reduction of roughly 60.6% from its earlier level. From short positioning of over $1.4 billion to cumulative gains of more than $500 million, this multi-month hedge trade has become one of the most closely-watched institutional trading cases on Hyperliquid.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that the proportion of active Bitcoin supply currently in a loss state has exceeded that of profitable supply. The estimate excludes Bitcoin that has not moved for over a decade. After adjustment, the share of supply in profit stands at less than 45%, meaning the majority of Bitcoin in this group is currently trapped in losses. Historically, when this proportion falls below 40%, it typically aligns with the bottom of a market correction phase. Conversely, when this proportion approaches 100%—meaning nearly all active Bitcoin holdings are in profit—the risk of a downward market reversal rises. The analyst argues that contrarian investing is becoming increasingly attractive: building positions gradually when the market is dominated by losses, while reducing positions appropriately when profitability becomes widespread.

According to monitoring by OnchainLens, a crypto whale received 4,892 ETH from Galaxy Digital via over-the-counter (OTC) trades over the past two months, worth roughly $11.85 million. The whale has since transferred a total of 4,637 ETH back to Galaxy Digital’s deposit addresses, valued at around $10.1 million. Of today’s transfers alone, 1,796 ETH (worth approximately $3.42 million) were sent back. The whale currently holds a remaining balance of 255 ETH, valued at about $483,000.