Lookonchain APP

App Store

Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

2025.04.16 13:32:48

On April 16th, Coinbase Research presented a report indicating that both Bitcoin and the COIN50 Index have fallen beneath their respective 200-day moving averages. This suggests that the market might be in the initial stage of a long-term downward trend. This aligns with the trend of the total market capitalization decline and the contraction of VC funding. Both of these are key characteristics of a potential "crypto winter." The report points out that numerous signs may imply that extreme negative sentiment has emerged as global tariffs are being implemented and there is a possibility of further escalation. This indicates that a new "crypto winter" may be commencing. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency venture capital in the first quarter of 2025 rebounded from the previous quarter but still remains 50-60% below the peak levels of the 2021-2022 cycle. This significantly restricts new capital from entering the ecosystem, especially in altcoins. All these structural pressures stem from the broader macroeconomic environment's uncertainty. As traditional risk assets face continuous resistance due to fiscal austerity and tariff policies, this leads to decision-making paralysis. Despite some unique favorable regulatory factors, the path to crypto recovery remains arduous, even in the face of the poor performance of the stock market. The interaction of these factors makes the outlook for the digital asset space challenging, and caution may still be necessary in the short term (perhaps in the next 4-6 weeks). However, the report also advises investors to adopt a tactical market strategy and remain optimistic about the second half of 2025.
Relevant content

Well-known trader Killa: It is highly unlikely that Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 in October, and $62,000 has become the bottom of this cycle.

Renowned trader Killa stated in a post tonight that data from Bitcoin’s multiple bull and bear cycles shows the depth of bear markets is gradually shrinking, and the bottom of this cycle may have already formed. The expectation of some who missed out on gains that Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 in October is highly unlikely. However, Killa also pointed out that if Bitcoin drops to $61,000, the expected value of long positions being liquidated could reach as high as $20 billion, noting that market makers have the motivation and possibility to liquidate long positions before re-establishing new ones. Killa, a quantitative trader focused on BTC, previously predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long positions during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

7 hours ago

Bitcoin rebounds, briefly surging past $78,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded, briefly breaking through the $78,000 mark, and is currently trading at $78,007.56, with its 24-hour decline narrowing to 0.28%.

7 hours ago

Some meme coins in the BSC ecosystem have seen significant rallies, with a token named '4' surging over 52% in a single day.

According to GMGN market data, some meme coins on the BSC ecosystem saw notable rallies today. Among them, "4" surged over 52% in a single day, with a current market capitalization of $17.78 million; "My Horse Is Here" rose 21.35% daily, standing at $13.64 million in market cap; "Lobster" gained 18.11% in a day, with a current market cap of $71.27 million. BlockBeats reminds users that related tokens are highly volatile, so investors should exercise caution.

7 hours ago

Summary of Performance for Early A9 Tokens on Robinhood Chain: At Least 60% Decline After First Phase, Investors Who Hold Firm Through the Bottom May Come Out Ahead

Crypto KOL @0xkioto today summarized the common trajectory of tokens that have reached or are near the 100 million yuan market cap since the launch of the Robinhood Chain. He pointed out that tokens like CASHCAT, AI, and PONS have strong market appeal from the start, attracting massive capital inflows. However, once the hype cools, all short-term buyers get washed out. All these tokens have seen crashes ranging from 60% to 95% after their initial rally. @0xkioto argues that these crashes transfer supply to loyal holders who will not sell, as well as a "team" accumulating tokens, laying the groundwork for the next rally. When new demand emerges, it will face thin sell orders, possibly paired with a catalyst to accelerate gains—this is when the token starts surging sharply. "The Robinhood Chain belongs to holders, not disruptors," he said. BlockBeats notes that the above summary may hold some representativeness and logic behind token consolidation. However, the performance of these tokens is also heavily influenced by overall market sentiment fluctuations since the Robinhood Chain’s launch. The Robinhood Chain launched in early July with impressive performance, but later fell into a liquidity crunch and faced challenges with its narrative due to factors like capital outflows, which is one of the key reasons behind the sharp corrections seen in the aforementioned tokens.

7 hours ago

Terminal-Bench 4.0: GLM-5.3 Climbs to Third Place, Surpassing GPT-5.6 Sol

Beating AI Insight News: Terminal-Bench has launched version 4.0, recalibrating time, CPU, and memory parameters for agent task execution, fixing 19 tasks, and removing 8 tasks plagued by issues including saturation, refusal to answer, public solutions, or quality problems. All tasks now have a uniform maximum execution time of 8 hours, aimed at reducing the impact of timeouts and environment-related issues on performance scores. In the latest ranking, Opus 5 + Claude Code tops the list with 51.8%, Fable 5 takes second at 44.5%, while GLM-5.3 + Claude Code claims third place with 41.8%, surpassing GPT-5.6 Sol + Codex’s 37.3%. Among the top three, GLM-5.3 is the only model not developed by Anthropic. In Terminal-Bench 3.0, GLM-5.3 ranked fourth with 32.4%, trailing GPT-5.6 Sol’s 34.6%; in version 4.0, GLM-5.3 jumped to third, leading Sol by 4.5 percentage points.

7 hours ago

Serenity questions SIVE's development strategy, arguing that it should pivot to the U.S. market, otherwise its valuation will be stuck.

Serenity has published an analysis note questioning Sivers Photonics (SIVE)’s development strategy, arguing the company remains overly focused on the Swedish market, while US investors likely prioritize its future growth potential and actual economic value derived from orders. Serenity noted US analysts are more inclined to focus on the implications of SIVE’s recent two wafer fab capacity allocations, and how much revenue and operating leverage these capacities will unlock amid supply bottlenecks and rising Average Selling Prices (ASP). Additionally, factors such as the 2028 volume ramp-up of CPO players including NPO/CPO, pluggable optical modules, and Ayar, ELS products’ collaboration with O-Net, and the scale and potential Total Addressable Market (TAM) of six new pluggable customers also warrant in-depth discussion. By contrast, local market concerns center on issues like “how to stem the bleeding”, why private clients cannot be disclosed, why the focus on transceivers, and what the “business opportunity pipeline” actually entails, forcing management to spend substantial time addressing these queries instead of discussing future growth. Serenity believes the more time SIVE devotes to the Swedish market, the more its valuation will be constrained by Swedish market investment logic, hence the need to actively showcase future growth opportunities and their underlying economic value to US investors.

7 hours ago

Popular tokens

BitcoinEthereumHyperliquidSolanaTRONBNBTetherAaveXRPPepeFartcoinOndoJupiterUniswapBonkPendleEthenaArbitrumAvalancheLidoChainlinkPolygonDogecoinCardano