Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

U.S. President Trump stated that "Super Intelligence" is a more fitting name, explaining that the word "Artificial" often carries connotations of being "fake" or "unreal"—but AI is not a false entity, but an extremely powerful form of intelligence.

Renowned trader Bonk Guy said in a post that he is bullish on STONK and has recently bought a large amount of STONK ecosystem tokens. He believes the ecosystem has strong development potential and may perform well in the long run. However, Bonk Guy called on the STONK community to stop regarding all potentially competing projects as attempts to siphon the ecosystem. He noted that the only factor currently causing him pessimism about the STONK ecosystem is that influential participants within it are continuously promoting the narrative that "all competitors are siphons". This internal anti-competitive attitude is even more worrying than coordinated FUD targeting the STONK ecosystem from outside. He emphasized that the market can and will have multiple winners at the same time.

US President Donald Trump said: "I reject Iran's proposal."

Crypto KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun posted that he expects Bitcoin’s current market cycle to follow a slow bull run marked by successive new all-time highs, rather than the sharp short-term rallies that peaked abruptly in 2013 and 2017. Before the actual cycle peak arrives, the market may see multiple local topping signals in succession. He noted that since 2021, BTC’s main buying demand has gradually shifted from retail investors to institutional players including public companies, spot ETFs, and corporate treasuries. Since institutions primarily purchase spot assets, and some funds also use delta neutral strategies for arbitrage, traditional metrics such as funding rates and MVRV Z-Score may not reach extreme levels again at the cycle peak. The upcoming cycle peak is more likely to be defined by a lack of follow-through from institutional capital, rather than widespread retail euphoria. The Institutional Liquidity Index (ILI), which tracks overall U.S. dollar liquidity, Strategy’s mNAV, and Bitcoin ETF net flows, is designed to determine if institutional capital is aligning with BTC when the asset hits new highs. A yellow divergence occurs when BTC posts a 30-day rolling high while the ILI fails to rise in tandem; a red divergence forms when BTC breaks its all-time high and the ILI is in divergence and below 50. Benson Sun stated that he will use the number of yellow divergences as a reference for gauging the cycle’s progress: each occurrence will prompt him to appropriately reduce his altcoin positions and leverage; as the market enters its later stages, he will gradually increase his BTC allocation and eventually hold only spot assets. If a red divergence appears, he will stop further participation.

Circle announced that Jeremy Fox-Geen will step down as its Chief Financial Officer (CFO) after more than five years in the role. To ensure a smooth transition, he will remain in his position through the end of December 2026, though his tenure could conclude earlier if a successor is appointed sooner. The company has launched a search for a new CFO. Fox-Geen joined Circle in May 2021, where he contributed to building the firm’s financial organizational structure and supported its $1.2 billion initial public offering (IPO). Circle noted that he also helped drive over five consecutive years of the company’s growth. Fox-Geen stated that his time as Circle’s CFO has been a significant career experience, adding that after the company achieved multiple milestones, now is the appropriate time to step down and take a break before the next phase of his professional journey. He also expressed confidence in Circle’s future.

Binance has invested $100 million in Circle’s stock and signed a five-year commercial agreement to further promote and integrate USDC on its platform. Analysts note that the partnership allows Binance to directly share in Circle’s growth gains, while providing USDC with key distribution channels spanning global transactions and emerging markets. Data shows that when Binance and Circle first collaborated in December 2024, the platform hosted 140 USDC-denominated spot trading pairs, a figure that has since risen to 329. Monthly USDC trading volume on Binance has climbed from the $20 billion–$40 billion range prior to the partnership to consistently exceeding $80 billion. Since 2026, Binance has processed $5 billion to $10 billion in daily USDC spot trading volume—roughly 10 to 20 times that of most other exchanges. USDC currently holds a market capitalization of around $74 billion, still trailing USDT’s approximately $140 billion. Martins Benkitis, co-founder of Gravity Team, said both parties have clear incentives to leverage Binance’s user base and infrastructure to expand USDC’s footprint, which will add more pressure to USDT’s standing in global transactions and emerging markets. However, distribution alone cannot quickly reshape the market landscape; USDT already boasts deep trading pairs, local liquidity, and long-established user habits.