Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

Deutsche Bank said it has cut its price target for Blackstone Group from $149 to $138.

UBS believes gold prices may retest the $4,000 per ounce level again, but expects strong dip-buying demand to support gold prices and form a price floor. While rising U.S. Treasury real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar exert downward pressure on gold, factors including sustained central bank gold purchases will underpin the precious metal. UBS forecasts annual central bank gold buying will reach 750 to 1,000 tons.

Renowned trader Killa noted in a post that the market’s repeated volatility and ongoing erosion of position profits and losses often lead investors to close out profitable positions prematurely. Previously, Bitcoin’s price found support multiple times around the $62,600 level, undergoing at least 10 tests before launching a new upward trend. Such market conditions gradually wear down traders’ patience, leading them to lose confidence in their original swing trading judgments. After multiple failed attempts to break through highs, many traders abandon their position-holding strategies in favor of frequent range-bound short-term trading, constantly opening and closing positions. While this approach may generate small gains, once the price finally breaks out of the range, traders are often already out of the market, missing the much larger profit potential of the subsequent move. Repeated price fluctuations tend to cause investors to overfocus on short-term movements, reacting to every minor change while ignoring the overall trend. Compared to frequent short-term trading for small profits, capturing large-scale market trends typically holds far higher profit potential. Investors should avoid being distracted by short-term fluctuations, stay focused on the overall market direction, and reduce unnecessary trades.

According to Bloomberg, the Winklevoss twins, founders of crypto exchange Gemini, and Barry Silbert, founder of Digital Currency Group (DCG), are expanding their footprint in the Zcash ecosystem. Cypherpunk Technologies, backed by the Winklevoss brothers, and Fortitude Mining, supported by Silbert, have become major ZEC mining operators and plan to invest tens of millions of dollars to further expand their hash rate. Currently, Cypherpunk controls roughly 20% of Zcash’s total network hash rate; Fortitude said its hash rate share will also reach around 20% after deploying its latest batch of mining equipment. In terms of investment products, Grayscale Investments, a DCG subsidiary, launched a Zcash ETF in the U.S. in August, while the Winklevoss brothers filed their own Zcash ETF application this month. As both parties ramp up their bets on mining and investment products, Zcash’s network hash rate and token holding concentration are drawing growing scrutiny.

Insight Beating AI Flash News: Valued at roughly $4.5 billion, humans& has launched its consumer AI assistant Boba, powered by Ampersand—a collaborative model released just two days ago. Users don’t need to download an extra app: they can message Boba via iPhone’s Messages or Android’s Google Messages, adding it to existing group chats like a regular contact. A web version is also available, free to use for now. For instance, in a trip-planning group chat, Boba can search for flights and accommodation, compare prices, and split costs among members. In a family group discussing errands or child drop-offs, it tracks assigned tasks and sends timely reminders. Boba retains previous plans and member preferences, offering proactive help when needed while avoiding unsolicited small talk. Users can connect their email and calendar to have Boba organize messages, draft replies, and schedule appointments. It can also perform web operations like booking restaurants or flights, though these require user confirmation and remain in the Alpha stage. Ampersand, the model behind Boba, was specifically trained for long-term collaboration. humans& previously developed Persimmon, a tool simulating real users who reject suggestions, change plans, or disagree. Ampersand has engaged in long-term interactions with these "virtual humans" to learn coordinating different goals and determining when to step in proactively. Boba has undergone months of beta testing, with users participating as early as June this year. The official website reveals early users exchanged over 3 million messages with Boba, more than 300,000 of which came from group chats. Boba saves messages to support cross-conversation memory, and its privacy policy permits the use of user inputs and AI outputs for model improvement, training, or fine-tuning.

According to Bloomberg data, South Korea’s KOSPI index has seen its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio drop to 4.2 times, becoming the first trillion-dollar market on record to fall below the 5x threshold. Among the 18 markets that had a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion at the start of this year, no benchmark index had previously recorded such a situation. The cooling AI boom has triggered a sell-off in tech stocks, weighing on South Korea’s stock market. Although South Korea’s exports are approaching the $1 trillion mark, and chip demand for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics remains strong, investors are still unwilling to pay higher valuations for the earnings of related companies. South Korea’s stock market valuation is now close to that of Indonesia, which faces the risk of MSCI downgrade, with the discount widening further. Bloomberg notes that South Korea’s extremely low stock market valuation may create room for future valuation recovery; if market sentiment shifts, South Korean stocks are expected to outperform other markets in the short term. However, there is uncertainty over when the valuation recovery will start and whether the stock market will fall further, and a low P/E ratio in itself does not mean the market has bottomed out.