Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), Circle’s shares rose more than 6% intraday, currently trading at $92.67. Earlier reports noted that Hyperliquid is in discussions with Kraken’s parent company to enter the U.S. market.

The central figure behind the viral story "ByteDance Employee Makes 23x Gains Trading US Stocks", Dexter Yang, posted that over the more than 7 years since he joined ByteDance on January 14, 2019, ByteDance options have appreciated 4.5 to 5 times at the repurchase price, yielding an annualized return of 22% to 24%; based on the company's market valuation (USD 600 billion to USD 1 trillion), they have risen 8 to 13 times, with an annualized return of 31% to 40%. His personal US stock assets have surged 23 times over the same period, delivering an annualized return of 51%. If such returns are not attainable, excelling at work at ByteDance and earning more options is the optimal investment. Career development mirrors investing: it requires taking risks, entering early, staying committed, and achieving exponential growth through compound interest from personal growth and sector accumulation—essentially, it's about "buy and hold". Earlier, Leto Bao, a former ByteDance employee nicknamed "ByteDance Stock Trading Guy", reaped massive profits by capitalizing on the AI storage sector via US stock investments. Online reports claim he earned approximately RMB 30 million and subsequently resigned.

According to market sources, Hyperliquid is in talks with Kraken's parent company to enter the U.S. market.

Glassnode noted in a report that Bitcoin is currently trading around $78,600, having largely held onto the strong rally it launched from the $64,000 zone at the end of August after earlier breaking above $80,000. The broader digital asset market still shows strong institutional demand, though activity in spot and derivatives trading has cooled in some segments. Meanwhile, price momentum has clearly exceeded the upper bound of its statistical range. The secondary market’s trading volume and spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicate that the balance of buying power in the market may be shifting, while retail participation has also weakened. Traditional finance capital continues to flow into regulated crypto investment products. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings remain profitable and have maintained weekly net inflows. At the same time, short-term, price-sensitive capital is entering the market, coinciding with high options open interest and a rapid narrowing of volatility spreads—signaling that market participants may be underestimating short-term volatility risks. On-chain data also reflects a pattern of "active settlement but weakening user participation": entity-adjusted transaction volumes are significantly above normal levels, while daily active addresses and total fee revenue have declined slightly. Overall, the Bitcoin market is in a transition phase from a strong rally to structural divergence. Sustained institutional capital allocation and a rebound in on-chain valuations are providing market support, though speculative leverage is rising and signs of short-term capital selling have begun to emerge. The market’s fundamentals remain solid, but short-term volatility and correction risks are on the rise.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that an MQ-9 drone was shot down east of the Strait of Hormuz.

Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced in a post on his personal channel that Telegram’s Gram wallet is now ready for use and currently available to a select group of users. It will be gradually rolled out to over 1 billion users in the coming weeks. Durov thanked the validators who approved the core smart contract, noting this means future wallet upgrades will not require cumbersome wallet migrations. This is just one of many innovations Telegram has developed to enhance the usability of non-custodial wallets.