Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

Hyperdash co-founder Hans published a post noting that Hyperliquid’s AQAv2 mechanism has established a new revenue stream. On October 3, the AQAv2 treasury wallet completed its first payment of $14.58 million for the USDC reserves held by the trading platform over the prior 30 days. The funds will be allocated to an assistance fund for purchasing HYPE. Under the mechanism, after users bridge USDC to Hyperliquid, Circle mints the corresponding assets on HyperEVM, and charges fees on the treasury balance daily, with settlements occurring every 30 days. Coinbase and Circle each staked 500,000 HYPE; if payments are delayed, Coinbase could lose 2% of its staked amount per day. Hans added that Hyperliquid’s previous revenue was primarily derived from trading fees, while AQAv2 enables the platform to earn income directly from margin deposits themselves, regardless of whether the associated funds are used for trading. The first payment covers the period from August 26 to September 24, with an implied average rate of roughly 3.14%. At current scale, annualized revenue is estimated at approximately $193 million. From January 1 to September 30 this year, Hyperliquid’s open interest rose from $7.72 billion to $16.4 billion, and platform margin increased from $4.34 billion to $7.22 billion. Over the same period, perpetual contracts recorded around $2 trillion in total trading volume, generating $493.3 million in fees for the protocol, equivalent to roughly 2.46 basis points per dollar of trading volume. Using this year’s average trading speed and current AQAv2 rate, every $1 of margin contributes about 15.4 cents in annual revenue to the protocol, split into ~12.5 cents from trading fees and ~2.8 cents from AQAv2. Hans projected that under the baseline scenario of stablecoin volume growing 20% annually and Hyperliquid retaining its current ~8.7% market share, the protocol’s annual revenue could rise from the current ~$1.11 billion to $2.4 billion by the end of 2030.

Cronos Network announced that two token economic proposals have been approved, with 228 million CRO from its community pool burned, bringing the total cumulative CRO burn to 428 million. Under the passed proposals, all future revenue from Ult and Cronos Launch will be allocated to repurchase CRO on the open market, which will then be burned monthly, and all related transaction hashes will be made public.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (handle @ai_9684xtpa), address 0x799…15f4c opened its first position on Hyperliquid, betting on Bitcoin (BTC)’s rebound with 7x leverage. The address initiated a long position of 121.23 BTC in the early hours of today, with the position valued at approximately $10.27 million, an average entry price of $84,918.9, and is currently facing an unrealized loss of around $20,000.

Crypto trader Ansem noted that the market has not yet fully priced in pump.fun’s evolution into a Layer 1 (L1)-like underlying infrastructure, where other token-launching platforms could directly build in the future. Few are currently focused on the creator fee splits pump.fun pays to token creators: the ratio is nearly 1:1 relative to the platform’s revenue, meaning for every ~$500 million the platform generates, token creators receive roughly $500 million in creator fees after their tokens complete the bonding curve phase, giving teams strong incentives to build products on pump.fun. He believes this economic structure may be superior to that of traditional L1s, as pump.fun can collect fees from every layer of token-launching platforms and each token they issue. With the rollout of features like custom trading pairs and Callout Rewards, the market may gradually start valuing PUMP in a manner similar to Layer 1 assets. He also expressed strong optimism about the investment thesis that pump.fun will develop into a "super app" in this cycle.

Whales are buying $PUMP. "netherlol" bought 383.34M $PUMP ($2.4M) after more than a year. A newly created wallet, GnZqfY, withdrew 189.22M $PUMP ($1.18M) from #MEXC 7 hours ago.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, whale "netherlol" has repurchased 383.34 million PUMP tokens for approximately $2.4 million, marking its first purchase in over a year. Additionally, a newly created wallet GnZqfY withdrew 189.22 million PUMP tokens from MEXC 7 hours ago, valued at around $1.18 million.