Coinbase Research: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Possibly in Early Stage of Long-term Downtrend

Morgan Stanley maintains its baseline forecast that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady this year, but warns the stance could shift toward rate hikes if the unemployment rate falls below 4% or inflation remains persistently high. Analyst Michael Gapen noted in a client report that data since the June FOMC meeting has left the firm "somewhat reassured" about its "no rate hike" baseline: oil prices have declined after the signing of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, and the pass-through effect of tariffs is expected to peak. Morgan Stanley forecasts fourth-quarter headline and core PCE inflation at 3.2% and 3.0% respectively, well below the median expectation of FOMC participants. On the labor market front, the firm projects monthly job gains of 50,000 to 60,000 during the summer, enough to keep the unemployment rate roughly stable. However, Gapen warns that if the unemployment rate drops below 4.0%, the Fed may view the risk of an overheating labor market as sufficient to justify rate hikes; the firm would also reassess its stance if monthly core inflation stays at or above 0.3% or if Middle East conflicts escalate again. At the time of this assessment, Brent crude has fallen to around $72.6, and markets are closely watching upcoming employment and inflation data to calibrate policy expectations for the Fed under Chair Powell.

According to a report from NewsNation, a U.S. official stated that despite Trump’s claim that Iran violated the ceasefire agreement, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are expected to continue.

According to a report by AXIOS, officials from Israel and Lebanon stated that the two governments are expected to announce a framework agreement today.

Trump posted on Truth Social that numerous European countries are discussing imposing digital services taxes on U.S. companies, with some nations nearing actual implementation of the tax. He framed the statement as an official warning: any country that levies such taxes on U.S. firms will immediately face a 100% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S. This tariff will take precedence over any trade agreement signed or implemented with that country, regardless of whether the agreement is in force. Furthermore, if these countries proceed with the move, the 100% tariff will take effect immediately.

Binance Co-CEO He Yi stated that any emerging industry will face varying degrees of regulatory and competitive challenges during its development, citing examples like Airbnb and Uber (Try asking AI which countries once banned them). However, this did not prevent them from becoming the greatest internet companies of the mobile internet era. Binance has always viewed encountered issues as opportunities to enhance its team’s capabilities and standards. Over the past years, we have set industry standards for user asset transparency and established the highest industry standards for compliance. While it may take time for EU regulators to build effective communication and trust with Binance, we will not give up and will continue to adhere to the global gold standard for compliance in the crypto industry. Compliance is a topic of great concern recently, which I believe marks progress for the industry, showing it is evolving from a wild growth phase to self-restraint and self-discipline. However, the lessons I have learned this time are: Companies that obtain licenses are not necessarily compliant or self-disciplined, while Binance’s adherence to the gold standard for compliance does not guarantee it will secure licenses. Our goal is far greater than competing with peers in trivial disputes, and we will hold ourselves to the highest industry standards. BlockBeats Note: The transitional grace period for the EU’s crypto regulation MiCA will officially end on July 1, 2026. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) previously called on unauthorized Crypto Asset Service Providers (CASPs) to exit relevant businesses in an orderly manner when the MiCA transition period concludes.

Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran launched at least four one-way attack drones at vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. One drone directly hit the upper deck of a large, high-value cargo ship. Although it caused some damage, the vessel was still able to continue sailing. We shot down the other three drones. Clearly, this is a foolish violation of our ceasefire agreement.