US Stock Futures Dive Further

According to an on-chain perpetual contract market research report released by Castle Labs, Hyperliquid’s cumulative protocol revenue has exceeded $1.4 billion, with over $1.26 billion used to repurchase HYPE tokens in the open market. By open interest, Hyperliquid currently holds more than 56% of the on-chain perpetual contract market share. The report also notes that Hyperliquid’s Builder Codes mechanism allows third-party wallets and applications to integrate its trading infrastructure, enabling them to add perpetual contract trading and earn revenue without building their own systems. Among these, Phantom has generated over $25 million in cumulative revenue through this mechanism, while MetaMask’s cumulative revenue exceeds $10.5 million.

Hyperliquid plans to carry out a network upgrade around 16:15 Beijing Time today, with an estimated downtime of approximately 10 minutes.

As of 2026, Bitcoin has seen 10 trading days with 3-standard-deviation price moves, exceeding the full-year total of 8 such days during the 2018 bear market. While Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has dropped from 84% in 2018 to around 46%, extreme price swings remain frequent relative to its recent volatility levels. A 3-standard-deviation move measures how much a price deviates from its typical recent volatility range. Data shows that the average daily price swing for Bitcoin during these extreme moves this year is roughly 7%, down from about 10% in 2018. Since 2024, Bitcoin’s volatility has stood at approximately 47%, similar to Nvidia’s. Yet over the same period, Bitcoin has recorded 26 trading days with 3-standard-deviation moves—far outpacing Nvidia’s 8, the S&P 500’s 16, and gold’s 12. Market analysts note that macroeconomic shocks, leverage in derivatives markets, and concentrated positions are key drivers of the persistent extreme volatility. When investors heavily sell options betting on market calm, sudden news can trigger mass liquidations of those positions, further amplifying price swings. Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that traditional Value-at-Risk (VaR) models fail to adequately measure tail risks during extreme market conditions, advising investors to focus more on risk metrics like Expected Shortfall. Meanwhile, increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management have enhanced the market’s ability to absorb shocks, though this does not mean extreme volatility will disappear.

According to monitoring by crypto tracker Ai Yi, a whale that has accumulated positions in UNI, LTC, and BNB since September 23, totaling roughly $11.6 million, now has a combined unrealized loss of about $1.536 million on its three altcoin holdings and is suspected of liquidating BNB. On-chain data indicates the whale transferred approximately 2,380 BNB to Binance around 20 minutes ago, worth around $1.85 million. If sold at current prices, this portion of the position would incur a loss of roughly $73,000. For other holdings: the whale holds 1,014,020 UNI, valued at ~$8.91 million, with an average entry price of $8.79, resulting in an unrealized loss of ~$1.409 million; it also holds 12,397 LTC, worth ~$841,000, average entry price of $67.86, with an unrealized loss of ~$54,000.

According to TradingBeats' monitoring, cryptocurrency market sentiment has slightly recovered. The remaining 12,000 ETH long positions in crypto personality "Big Brother Ma Ji" Huang Licheng's address have narrowed their unrealized losses to $640,000, with an entry price of $2,547.66 and liquidation price of $2,454.22. His address has incurred $7.2 million in losses over the past seven days, bringing total losses to $33.97 million.

Robinhood Chain’s on-chain activity continues to cool off. Data shows that between October 2 and 8, the network’s average daily transaction volume dropped to 6.2 million, a 42% decrease from the 10.8 million transactions recorded from September 10 to 16, marking a 20% weekly decline. The average daily active addresses stood at around 322,000, down 31% from mid-September. Trading volume and network revenue have both come under pressure. Over the same period, the weekly spot DEX trading volume on Robinhood Chain fell to $7.45 billion, a 21% drop from the previous week’s $9.46 billion. The network’s average daily fee revenue was approximately $65,000, a 39% week-over-week decline. Notably, the network’s daily fee revenue once hit $8 million in early September. However, capital has not significantly flowed out. During the same period, the deposit scale of on-chain lending and trading applications rose by around 2% to $1.04 billion, while stablecoin supply increased to roughly $1.1 billion; perpetual contract trading volume grew by 26% to about $7.35 billion. To stimulate trading activity, Robinhood has extended the token swap fee subsidy for transactions over $0.5 via Robinhood Wallet to December 31. The subsidy was originally scheduled to end on September 29.