Kalshi Study: 82% of High-Profit Traders Have No Wall Street Work Experience, 91% Are Not Full-Time Traders
A study released by prediction market platform Kalshi reveals that its high-profit traders are not generally from traditional finance, and trading performance may be more closely tied to probabilistic reasoning ability. The research surveyed high-earning accounts across Kalshi’s markets (excluding sports and special categories) as of September 2026: questionnaires were sent to 2,360 accounts, with 325 valid responses received, marking a 13.8% response rate.
Findings show 82% of high-profit traders have never worked full-time at an investment bank, hedge fund, private equity firm, or proprietary trading firm; 79% attended public high schools, 65% said they learned about markets and probability primarily through self-study, 91% are not full-time traders, and 42% have at least six months of customer service or retail work experience. On cognitive ability tests, surveyed traders posted an average score of 2.42 on the Berlin Numeracy Test (out of a maximum 4 points), compared to an average of 0.62 for the general U.S. adult population. 93% of traders resisted the gambler’s fallacy, versus 57% of the general public.
The study concludes that trading advantages in prediction markets likely derive more from probabilistic reasoning, information research, and the ability to distinguish between predictable and unpredictable events, rather than traditional finance professional backgrounds. Furthermore, Kalshi’s analysis of traders’ residential locations shows only 6.3% live in ZIP codes with a median household income exceeding $150,000, meaning the overall user base’s income distribution is more aligned with U.S. middle-income groups.
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MAGIC’s 24-hour trading volume across the entire network is approximately 8 times its market capitalization, indicating extremely active trading.
According to HTX market data, Treasure (MAGIC) posted a sharp rally over the past 24 hours, surging more than 130% at its peak. Its current market capitalization stands at around $51.291 million, with a fully diluted valuation of roughly $52.8815 million. The global 24-hour spot trading volume reached $407.8 million, about 8 times its market cap, signaling extremely active trading. For perpetual contracts: the 24-hour open interest (OI) is approximately $693.2 million, translating to an OI/market cap ratio of 1351.55%, and a 24-hour perpetual-to-spot trading volume ratio of 32.7x. Its circulating supply is 337.23 million tokens, while total supply is 347.687 million tokens.
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XRP Ledger Patches Critical 11-Year-Old Vulnerability That Allowed Attackers to Generate XRP Out of Thin Air
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Crypto gaming sector tokens rally broadly, with MAGIC jumping 134% and PIXEL rising 28%
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Kimi’s low-cost model generates higher revenue than K3, with its annualized revenue reaching $1.2 billion.
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MAGIC’s 24-hour price gain has widened to 130%, with its market cap rising to $53 million.
According to HTX market data, MAGIC’s 24-hour price gain has widened to 130%, currently trading at $0.1532, with its market capitalization rising to $53 million.
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