4E: US Stock and Crypto Markets Rebound, Focus This Week on US February PCE Price Index
2025.03.24 11:00:34
March 24th. Based on 4E monitoring, during the past week, the dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve and President Trump's statement regarding flexibility in the tariff plan successively boosted stock market confidence. After significant fluctuations, the three major indices closed up collectively for the week: the Dow increased by 1.2%, marking the largest weekly gain in more than two months; the S&P 500 rose by 0.51%, ending a four-week losing streak; the Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.17%, halting the previous four-week decline. However, large-cap tech stocks generally closed the week in a lower position, with Nvidia down by 3.26%, Tesla down by 0.53%, and experiencing a consecutive nine-week decline.
The cryptocurrency market witnessed fluctuations but overall showed a mild upward trend. Bitcoin dipped below $81,000 on Tuesday and then rebounded. It surged above $87,000 on Thursday following the dovish comments from the Fed and hit a two-week high. After that, it oscillated around the $84,000 level. This morning, it experienced another rapid increase and was trading at $85,721 before the deadline, with a 3.18% increase in the past 7 days. Other major altcoins saw slight gains, with Ethereum striving to hold above $2,000, and the on-chain meme trend of BNB continued to attract attention. Signs of a market recovery are emerging, and investor sentiment is improving.
In the commodities market, the US dollar index rose by 0.34% for the week, marking its first weekly gain this month. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East continued to escalate, resulting in a more than 2% increase in crude oil prices for two consecutive weeks. Spot gold rose by 1.31% last week, extending a three-week upward trend.
Last week, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, with the guidance for two rate cuts still in place for the year. Powell's remarks also brought some comfort to the market. This week, the focus is on the release of the Fed's preferred inflation measure - the PCE Price Index on Friday. Additionally, as the April 2nd "tariff deadline" approaches, market caution remains due to uncertainty. However, once the tariff outlook becomes clearer, the ongoing market turbulence of recent weeks may start to subside.
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### Notes on American English conventions used:
1. **Date format**: "February 4" (omits "th" in casual/concise contexts, common in news briefs)
2. **Terminology**: "FedWatch Tool" (standard name for CME’s rate-probability tracker, not "data")
3. **Abbreviation**: "bps" (widely used shorthand for basis points in financial news)
4. **Flow**: Alternates "probability" and "chance" to avoid repetition; uses "shows" (direct, active verb) instead of passive "according to...data"
5. **Clarity**: Specifies "Federal Reserve" first then shortens to "Fed" (optional, but retains familiarity for readers)
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