Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

April 10 — Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that Japan will release a 20-day supply of its oil reserves starting in early May. (Kinshi)

April 10 – Tonight’s U.S. CPI release is set to mark the first clear sign of the “Iran Premium” in inflation, fueled by soaring oil prices. Markets expect this month’s reading to hit a nearly four-year high, putting inflation back at the center of asset pricing. In bond markets, traders are hedging risks by ramping up options bets on higher yields for 5- and 10-year U.S. Treasuries. A JPMorgan survey finds spot market sentiment has fallen to a three-week low for net long positions. Macroeconomically, strong nonfarm payrolls have eased growth worries, shifting focus back to energy costs. Brent crude is up nearly 60% year-to-date, bolstering expectations of higher inflation. Rate-cut expectations have tightened sharply: Markets now price in just a ~30% chance of a 25bp rate cut in 2026, far below earlier bets for multiple cuts at the start of the year. Institutions note resilient jobs data and rising energy prices limit short-term rate downside. A CPI reading confirming in

April 10: CME’s FedWatch Tool shows 1.6% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in April, versus 98.4% odds of holding rates steady.

On April 10, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that the nation’s estimated March budget deficit hit $163 billion. (CoreyTen)

April 10: OKX founder and CEO Star hit back at CZ’s proposed $1 billion bet, stating, “Both OKX and Binance are overseen by multiple regulatory bodies. As the Ultimate Beneficial Owner (UBO) of a regulated firm, publicly floating a $1 billion bet clearly flies in the face of professional ethics. I’m curious whether Binance’s regulators view this conduct as acceptable.” On whether CZ misled the public or spread falsehoods globally, the test is straightforward: Has CZ legally separated his equity in Binance from his ex-wife? Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos have already demonstrated what a proper divorce asset split looks like.

On April 10, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) responded to OKX CEO Star on social media, stating: "I typically ignore false accusations and attacks, but you can apologize now. I am officially divorced. I will not publish any legal documents online out of respect for my ex-wife’s privacy and appreciation for the time we shared. I am willing to bet $1 billion (or any sum you choose) on this: I was already officially divorced prior to today. If you agree to the bet, we can have a lawyer verify my divorce decree—this should be straightforward. This bet is permanently valid and ready for you to accept at any time. However, if you do not accept within 24 hours, it will be clear who is making false statements to the public. I have more important matters to attend to."