Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

April 1st (Bloomberg) — New Hampshire’s Business Finance Authority plans to issue Bitcoin-backed municipal bonds worth roughly $100 million. Moody’s Investors Service has assigned the bonds a Ba2 rating—two notches below investment grade. Principal and interest on the bonds will be paid using proceeds from Bitcoin-backed assets, with extra returns available if Bitcoin’s price climbs. The bonds also include price-triggered liquidation provisions to protect payments; the related debt is not backed by the state’s credit or tax revenue.

April 1 — White House Press Secretary Levitt announced Wednesday that President Trump will deliver a national address at 9 p.m. EDT (9 a.m. Thursday in Beijing) to provide a significant update on the Iran situation.

April 1st — Both the U.S. and Iran softened their stances simultaneously overnight (last night into this morning), sending clear peace signals. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated Iran is ready to end the conflict but seeks assurances. Former President Donald Trump also noted the U.S. will wrap up its conflict with Iran in 2–3 weeks, adding the U.S. has essentially met its military goals and will leave Strait of Hormuz issues to other nations. **U.S. stocks staged a sharp rebound** as a result. Per Bitget data: - S&P 500 closed up 184.80 points (+2.91%) at 6,528.52, though down 5.09% in March and 4.63% for Q1. - Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,125.37 points (+2.49%). - Nasdaq Composite jumped 795.99 points (+3.83%), with a 7.10% Q1 drop. WTI crude briefly fell below $100 before bouncing back, now trading at $103.96. Gold extended gains, currently at $4,690.65. **The crypto market rebounded quickly in early trading today and is gradually climbing.** Per HTX data

April 1: A dormant whale address (bc1quv) moved 5,500 Bitcoins (valued at $366 million) to a new wallet after 5 years, per LookOnChain monitoring. The 5,500 BTC were originally withdrawn from Gemini six years ago at an average price of ~$7,129.

April 1st: Following the Iranian President’s statement on ending the war, Bitget market data shows U.S. stocks rallied short-term: - Nasdaq: Up over 3% - S&P 500, Dow: Each up over 2% Commodities update: - Spot silver: +6.00% intraday, last at $74.25/oz - Spot gold: Hit intraday high of $4,640/oz, +2.86% on the day - Brent crude: -4.00% intraday, last at $103.53/bbl Crypto notes (HTX market info): - Bitcoin: Broke above $68,000 - Ethereum: Broke above $2,100

April 1 – Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated Iran is ready to end the war but is seeking guarantees.