Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

January 29th — Per The Block, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued joint guidance from its Division of Corporate Finance, Division of Investment Management, and Division of Trading and Markets, clarifying that tokenized securities fall within the federal securities law definition of "securities" and are subject to registration, disclosure, and other applicable obligations. The SEC breaks down tokenized securities into two categories: - **Issuer-sponsored**: Directly integrates blockchain into ownership records; - **Third-party-sponsored**: Involves a third-party custodian holding the underlying securities and issuing tokenized interests, or issuing "tethered securities" that offer synthetic exposure to the assets. This guidance is part of SEC Chair Atkins’ "Token Classification Framework" — an initiative to align with market structure legislation being advanced by U.S. lawmakers and establish a clear regulatory framework for the asset class.

On January 29th, on-chain data analyst Yu Jin reported that a whale address transferred 45 million USDC to the Hyperliquid platform to purchase HYPE tokens. After over 10 hours of continuous buying, the address has acquired 909,000 HYPE—valued at 30.5 million USDC—at an average price of $33.5 each. The purchase remains ongoing, with the remaining 14.5 million USDC expected to be fully converted to HYPE later today.

**January 29th** Per data from the Coinbob Popular Address Monitor and Coinglass, Bitcoin (BTC) led network-wide liquidations over the past 24 hours. The single largest liquidation hit $12.47 million, executed by the crypto whale known as the "Air Force Commander" (address: 0xd83...) on the Hyperliquid platform. The liquidation stemmed from BTC’s short-term surge starting at 2:00 AM ET this morning, when it broke above $90,000. The address significantly expanded its 40x-leveraged BTC long position, pushing its total position size to $63.2 million—with both the liquidation price and average entry price rising in tandem. Subsequently, BTC prices continued to decline, currently trading 2.1% below its daily high. At 5:02 AM ET, the address sustained a major hit: 140 BTC in long positions were liquidated (valued at ~$12.47 million). Over the following hours, another 112.2 BTC in long positions were liquidated (~$9.9 million), bringing the total liquidation amount to $22.37 million.

January 29 — Per monitoring from HyperInsight (via its Telegram channel at https://t.me/HyperInsight), the wallet tagged “Silver Iron Head Air Force” (0x61cee) reopened a short position on silver 3 hours ago. Currently, its 20x leveraged short position in xyz:SILVER (the silver-mapped contract) amounts to $3.2 million, with an average entry price of $116.76 and an unrealized loss of $11,000. The address has stuck to shorting silver: it closed out a multi-day silver short position yesterday, realizing a loss of $4.79 million.

January 29th — On-chain data shows an a16z-backed address purchased 243,000 HYPE tokens via Anchorage early this morning. As of press time, the associated address holds a total of 1.53 million HYPE, worth roughly $50.49 million. Back in September, @mlmabc monitoring flagged a similar transaction tied to a suspected a16z address, which bought 210,000 HYPE tokens then.

Jan. 29 — HyperInsight monitoring shows the "Lightning Backhand" whale closed its BTC and ETH short positions in the past hour, netting a total profit of $351,000. This address is known for quick long-to-short flips and frequently executes large-scale reverse trades immediately after closing out positions.