Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

On April 12, MiniMax announced the official open-source release of its M2.7 model. The model has achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on benchmarks including SWE-Pro (56.22%) and Terminal Bench 2 (57.0%). Users can now access M2.7 via Hugging Face. MiniMax M2.7 marks the company’s first model to actively engage in its own evolutionary process. It can build a sophisticated agent framework, leverage agent teams, deploy complex skills, and use dynamic tool search capabilities to tackle highly complex productivity tasks.

April 12: Trump posted on Truth Social, stating, “If Iran does not back down, President Trump’s ‘ace in the hole’ is a naval blockade.”

April 12 – Per a Forbes report, U.S. Vice President Pence confirmed no agreement was reached after 21 hours of negotiations, citing Iran’s refusal to commit to abandoning its nuclear program. Trump had previously warned of “total destruction” for Iran if talks collapsed. The Iran conflict has driven weeks of crypto market volatility, amplified by tariff unrest—Bitcoin dropped below $70k earlier this month. Ahead of talks, crypto analysts noted: Bitcoin could hit $80k if a deal is struck, or slide to $65k if negotiations break down. On the bullish front: On-chain wallet data shows the largest Bitcoin whale has been steadily buying amid peak geopolitical tensions, not selling. The reasoning: Escalating conflict could disrupt Persian Gulf oil supplies, pushing oil prices higher, reigniting inflation, and prompting the Fed to delay rate cuts—scenarios where scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold typically outperform. Bearish take: Gold trader and long-time Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schif

April 12 — The Middle East situation worsened sharply over the weekend, following a brief ceasefire cooling-off period. ### Key Developments: - **U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse**: 21-hour negotiations ended in deadlock after Iran rejected the U.S.-proposed “no nuclear weapons development” clause. - **Ambiguous Dialogue End**: U.S. Vice President Vance announced the talks’ conclusion with vague wording. - **Trump’s Attack Pause Nears End**: His declared two-week attack suspension is winding down with no clear outcome. - **Hormuz Strait Dispute**: A U.S. destroyer claimed the first post-conflict transit of the Strait of Hormuz — a claim Iranian officials immediately denied, signaling ongoing information warfare. ### Market Outlook for Next Week: Geopolitics will dominate sentiment; any Hormuz-related news could trigger asset price swings. Beyond geopolitics, the macro calendar focuses on two critical themes: 1. **Fed Policy Signals**: Speeches by Fed officials (includin

April 12 — Per Iran’s Fars News Agency, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Iran and the U.S. have reached consensus on some issues but differ on two or three key points, ultimately failing to reach a final agreement. (Xinhua News Agency)

On April 12, per HTX market data, Bitcoin is trading at $71,697.20—down 1.80% over the past 24 hours—while Ethereum sits at $2,219.54, a 1.27% drop in the same period. Coinglass data shows funding rates across major centralized (CEXs) and decentralized (DEXs) exchanges point to bearish signals for both BTC and ETH, with market sentiment remaining muted. Specifically, Bitcoin’s funding rate is negative on platforms like Binance: shorts are continuously paying fees to longs to maintain their positions, indicating an overall bearish trend. For Ethereum, rates are negative on Binance, while platforms like OKX see positive rates but all fall below the 0.005% bearish threshold—also signaling a broad bearish trend. Funding rates for specific major coins are displayed in the attached chart. BlockBeats Note: Funding rate is a mechanism set by crypto exchanges to align perpetual contract prices with the underlying asset’s spot price. It involves a fund transfer between long and short trade