Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr noted in a post that Bitcoin has recently entered a low-volatility compression phase. The 30-day average of its 1-week realized volatility has fallen to 28.3, a roughly 31% drop from the June 25 peak of 41.6. The metric has also retreated to around the 8th percentile of its historical distribution since 2016, meaning 92% of past trading days saw higher volatility than current levels. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 30-day momentum of open interest (OI) relative to market capitalization has been negative for 21 consecutive days, signaling market leverage is continuing to decline rather than accumulating amid the low-volatility environment. The cryptocurrency’s current price has rebounded approximately 11.4% from its June low, but this uptick has not been paired with an expansion of derivative positions, reducing the risk of a large-scale liquidation cascade. However, Bitcoin remains below its 200-day moving average of $72,666. If volatility rises back above 35 while the price fails to hold above the long-term moving average, downside risks could increase.

According to BIT (Bit.com) market data, ahead of U.S. stock market opening, the optical module and storage sectors saw a slight pullback after rallying sharply yesterday, with pre-market funds showing signs of profit-taking. Optical module stocks: Coherent (COHR) closed up 11.15% at $317.220 yesterday, trading at $306.260 pre-market, down 3.46%; Lumentum Holdings (LITE) closed up 9.41% at $837.560, pre-market at $812.060, down 3.04%; Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) closed up 15.76% at $119.260, pre-market at $115.940, down 2.78%; Nokia (NOK) closed up 5.46% at $10.630, pre-market at $10.530, down 0.94%; Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up 6.68% at $207.960, pre-market at $202.720, down 2.52%. Storage stocks: Seagate Technology (STX) closed up 11.14% at $891.830 yesterday, pre-market at $864.500, down 3.06%; Western Digital (WDC) closed up 12.51% at $548.390, pre-market at $530.000, down 3.35%; SanDisk (SNDK) closed up 14.27% at $1589.400, pre-market at $1546.080, down 2.73%; Micron Technology (MU) closed up 12.17% at $970.820, pre-market at $944.550, down 2.71%. Pre-market, optical module and storage stocks generally pulled back 2%-3.5%, a technical adjustment following yesterday's sharp rally. Funds remain concentrated in the AI infrastructure chain, with storage and optical interconnection continuing to benefit from the expansion of AI server demand.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through $66,000, currently trading at $66,005.32, with a 0.32% drop over the past 24 hours.

According to Iran's Mehr News Agency, a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Interior stated that Iran is not currently negotiating with the United States, but "information exchange" between the two sides is possible.

According to market data from BIT (Bit.com), US stock futures are trending lower: Nasdaq 100 Index futures fell 1%, S&P 500 Index futures dropped 0.4%, and Dow Jones futures declined 0.3%.

According to monitoring by Ruga Research, Binance recorded a net outflow of 9,030 BTC yesterday, equivalent to roughly $589 million at current prices, marking the largest single-day BTC net outflow in nearly five months. Data shows that Binance’s 30-day BTC net flow momentum indicator has rebounded from approximately -21% to 0. Over the past year, every time this indicator recovered from negative territory to near zero, BTC prices saw further gains afterward.