Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

According to sources close to the US-Iran negotiations, US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a staged solution in New York, which includes Iran reopening shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and the US lifting economic sanctions on Iran. Insiders say the Strait of Hormuz has become a core bargaining chip in ending the nearly seven-month-long US-Iran conflict. Iran, which has recognized the economic pressure from prolonged confrontation, is considering a phased arrangement: the first step could be resuming shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US eases economic sanctions, and Iran may get partial unfreezing of its frozen assets. However, neither side is willing to give up its bargaining chip first, which has become the biggest obstacle to the negotiations. Iranian officials said Tehran is more focused on lifting sanctions rather than insisting on collecting tolls for the Strait of Hormuz in the agreement. Regional sources said Iran may include the toll demand in an annex rather than as part of the main agreement, but this does not mean it is abandoning its position on the Strait's management rights. Analysts believe the US hopes to force Iran to make concessions through pressure, while Iran wants to have pressure lifted first before making commitments. Dennis Ross, a former US Iran negotiator, said the probability of reaching an agreement before the November midterm elections is limited, but both sides have incentives to push forward negotiations ahead of the elections, as reopening the Strait of Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf and reduce oil price pressures. Currently, Gulf countries hope to restore shipping freedom and prevent the strategic waterway from becoming a long-term tool for gamesmanship, while pushing the US and Iran to de-escalate through diplomacy.

Crypto venture firm Multicoin Capital’s co-head of venture investments, Spencer Applebaum, has published a lengthy article titled “DeFi 2.0”. In the piece, Applebaum notes that early DeFi primitives—automated market makers (AMMs), overcollateralized lending, variable-rate liquidity pools, and perpetual swaps—were designed for high-volatility crypto assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, real-world assets (RWAs) such as government bonds, stocks, and commodities have lower volatility, generate cash flows, and feature identifiable borrowers. Institutional players prioritize execution quality, tenure, and credit, so the same set of primitives cannot be rigidly applied to RWA use cases. Applebaum argues that DeFi 2.0 needs to add capabilities including order books or Request for Quote (RFQ) systems, fixed-rate and term lending, interest rate derivatives, options and structured products, repos and dark pools, portfolio margin, and revenue splitting. Tokenization is only the first step; value will accrue to public blockchain block space, core primitive fees, brokerage aggregation layers, and application order flow. As RWA scales, these primitives—“long-existing but ill-suited for the asset types”—will finally gain genuine market traction.

According to HTX market data, Ethereum has surpassed $2,700, with a 24-hour gain of 1.45%.

Ryan Myher, co-founder of Genius Terminal, responded to the controversy over Genius’ adjustment to its Season 2 points rules, stating: “Genius is essentially a terminal for trading crypto assets, and points are just additional benefits users may earn when trading on the platform. Every user who trades on Genius has agreed to our airdrop terms; if you’ve been using it since Season 1, you’ve actually agreed twice. You cannot use the platform without accepting these terms. Points are inherently additional benefits, so the rules will be adjusted based on actual circumstances. Recently, the terminal’s trading volume has dipped, so daily points distributions have decreased. One guarantee: individual tokens will not unlock before user tokens.” Earlier on the 24th, news broke that Genius—an on-chain trading terminal backed by YZi Labs—has revised its Season 2 points campaign. The community alleges the campaign originally promised to unlock 70 million GENIUS tokens on October 25 to incentivize trading and points accumulation. Official documentation previously specified Season 2 would run from April 10 to August 10, with 1.5 million points distributed daily; recent updates to relevant pages have removed the “April 10 to August 10” timeframe from current docs, and daily points have been cut to 50,000. CoinMarketCap data shows the unlock timeline for these 70 million tokens has been delayed to February 2028. Some participants are demanding either unlocks at the original date or refunds for Season 2-related fees.

The U.S. and Iran are studying a phased plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to market data from BIT (bit.com), the three major U.S. stock indexes surged sharply, with the S&P 500 turning positive. International oil prices plummeted, spot gold and silver rose, U.S. Treasury price declines narrowed, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell back to 5.13%.

Russia’s Central Bank has finalized the market access procedures for crypto market participants, including digital custodians, crypto trading platforms, and digital rights information system operators. According to a statement from the central bank’s press office, all such participants must be included in the relevant register. The regulation outlines qualification requirements for members of the management bodies and specific officials of digital custodians, crypto trading platforms, and information system operators; specifies the list of documents required for access applications; and details the procedures for the central bank to include relevant information in the register. The document also includes simplified access rules for existing market participants, which will submit applications for digital custodian and crypto exchange licenses. The directive standardizes how the central bank maintains the register, updates its data, and publishes register information on its official website. The relevant regulations have been registered with Russia’s Ministry of Justice and will officially take effect on October 5, 2026.