Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

April 11 — Arkham on-chain data shows Bhutan is continuing to divest its Bitcoin holdings. Bhutan’s sovereign wealth fund, Druk Holding and Investments, held ~13,000 BTC in October 2024. It now has just 3,954 BTC left, worth ~$280.6 million. Over the past 18 months, ~70% of its holdings have been sold, with $215.7 million worth of BTC transferred this year alone. Additionally, Bhutan’s Bitcoin mining operations appear to have ceased: on-chain data indicates the last mining payout exceeding $100,000 occurred over a year ago, and Druk Holdings has not publicly disclosed any related updates. Economic pressure is the primary driver. Bhutan’s mining relies on hydropower, which was profitable when hash rate difficulty was low and BTC prices topped $90,000. Today, BTC hovers around $71,000, network difficulty is at an all-time high, and post-halving block rewards have dropped to 3.125 BTC — slashing margins for small-scale sovereign mining. Analysts note selling hydropower directly t

April 11 — Delegations from the U.S. and Iran officially kicked off talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Monday. But public stances from both sides show three core issues all touch on each other’s red lines, leaving negotiation prospects highly uncertain. ### Hormuz Strait A key ceasefire precondition and the most direct divisive point: Former President Trump has demanded a "comprehensive, immediate, and secure" strait opening, while Iran insists all passage must coordinate with its armed forces. Since the ceasefire was announced, Iran has tightened controls twice and now reportedly seeks a $1-per-barrel navigation fee for oil tankers. Analysts widely agree U.S. acceptance of any Iranian control over the strait would amount to a "strategic failure." ### Iranian Uranium Enrichment Non-overlapping red lines: The U.S. demands Iran fully abandon enrichment, calling it a "non-negotiable bottom line" — the U.S. Secretary of Defense even threatened "military seizure" if Iran refuses. Ir

On April 11, Farside data shows yesterday’s net inflows into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs hit $64.9 million—marking the second straight day of net inflows.

April 11 — U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $240.4 million yesterday, according to Farside Monitoring, marking two straight days of net inflows.

April 11th — Per EmberCN data, a whale or institution holding 59% of NOM’s circulating supply has sent 7.68 billion NOM to Binance over the past hour, valued at roughly $3.73 million. Since last night, the entity has transferred a total of 14.42 billion NOM to the exchange, worth approximately $7.67 million. Meanwhile, NOM’s price has dropped 39% in the last 24 hours.

April 11th Per Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve is reportedly asking major banks detailed questions about their risk exposure in the private lending sector—driven by a surge in redemption requests for related funds and a steady rise in non-performing loans. The Treasury Department is also simultaneously probing the insurance industry to fully assess the $1.8 trillion private lending industry’s overall pressure and the risk of those issues spreading to the broader financial system. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes weighed in from afar, saying: “I hope it’s big enough so we can print money to save the market.” In short, if the regulatory review uncovers systemic risks, it could pressure the Fed to restart easing and inject large-scale liquidity—potentially benefiting the crypto market.