Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

On April 17, per a Fortune report, U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal sent letters to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) requesting an update on Binance’s compliance monitoring mechanism—amid concerns over roughly $1.7 billion in Iran-related cryptocurrency transactions. In the letter, Blumenthal noted that market allegations of Binance’s “critically insufficient” anti-money laundering (AML) measures have grown. He asked regulators to disclose the performance of two independent monitors assigned to the exchange. This monitoring stems from a 2023 settlement between Binance and U.S. authorities: Binance paid ~$4.3 billion in fines for compliance failures and agreed to independent oversight, which launched in 2024. Reports recently surfaced that Binance fired internal investigators who had previously alerted executives to over $1 billion in funds flowing to wallets linked to Iran. Binance pushed back, saying the dismissals were

April 17: Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research Muli-Grissman said the recent U.S. stock market rally will need the Fed to restart rate cuts to sustain momentum. He described the rebound as a "rapid, vigorous recovery phase" driven partly by technical factors—including hedge funds that had previously sold stocks to reduce risk now being forced to rebuild positions. Even as the S&P 500 heads for a third straight week of gains exceeding 3%, Grissman questioned the uptrend’s sustainability without monetary policy support. He noted that while stocks are rising, oil prices are surging and credit markets are lagging. The market’s strong performance is also partly tied to heavy exposure to tech stocks. (FXStreet)

April 17 (CCTV News) — Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said Iran rejects any temporary ceasefire and is calling for a full end to conflict across the region. Speaking to reporters at the 5th Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Araghchi emphasized any ceasefire must cover all conflict zones “from Lebanon to the Red Sea” — a “red line” for Iran. “We do not accept any temporary ceasefire,” he stressed, adding the cycle of conflict must be “completely terminated.”

April 17: Bitcoin briefly topped $76,000 before paring gains, extending this week’s volatile trend. The ~10% jump spurred by US-Iran ceasefire news is fading, with markets shifting from emotion-driven moves to verifying signs of actual economic recovery. Institutional outlooks note a ceasefire alone no longer supports further upside in risk assets. Investors are now focused on tangible progress: restored energy supplies, reduced oil risk premiums, and cooling inflation. The key variable still hinges on oil transport recovery in the Strait of Hormuz, which handled ~20% of global oil shipments pre-conflict. In energy markets, WTI crude has dropped to ~$87.50, while Brent hovers near $90—signaling market caution about supply recovery. Derivatives data shows Bitcoin and Ethereum’s 30-day implied volatility (IV) continues to decline, suggesting markets expect clearer macro progress short-term. Meanwhile, Solana and DOGE futures open interest hit multi-week highs, pointing to rising

April 17th — Per Polymarket data, Bitcoin briefly topped $76,000 today. The probability of the crypto hitting $80,000 this year is now 86% (up 7 percentage points from yesterday), while the chance of it dropping below $50,000 stands at 47% (down 3pp from the prior day).