Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

On April 12, Bitcoin dropped below $71,000, per HTX market data, notching a 24-hour decline of 2.65%.

April 12th — Trump posted on Truth Social saying the meeting went very smoothly, with most content agreed upon. But the only truly critical issue — the nuclear issue — remains unresolved. Effective immediately, the U.S. Navy’s most elite forces will block all ships trying to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz. Our goal is eventually to have “all ships come and go freely,” but Iran has blocked this, citing “possible mines somewhere” — mines only they claim to know about. That’s global extortion. Leaders of every country, especially U.S. leaders, will never give in to this extortion. I’ve ordered the Navy to search and intercept all ships paying passage fees to Iran in international waters. Anyone illegally paying those fees won’t be able to navigate the high seas safely. We’re also starting to destroy mines Iran laid in the strait. Any Iranian who dares fire at our forces or peaceful ships will be blown to pieces! Iran knows better than anyone how to end this crisis that’

April 12 — Following U.S.-Iran negotiations, the entire U.S. delegation has departed Pakistan, with no members remaining in the country. President Trump’s envoy Wietkof, son-in-law Jared Kushner, and the U.S. technical team have all left Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence arrived at Ramstein Air Base in Germany before 7 a.m. ET on April 12. According to Pakistani media reports, Pence departed Pakistan on April 12 local time. (Xinhua News Agency)

On April 12, The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Vice President Vance said after marathon U.S.-Iran peace talks the two sides failed to reach an agreement—because Tehran refused to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons. “Unfortunately, we’ve made no progress,” Vance stated, adding he called on Iran to make a clear commitment to no longer seeking nuclear weapons. Iran’s top negotiator, meanwhile, said Washington had failed to earn its trust. Separately, the U.S. noted two Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday—marking the first time U.S. warships have passed through the waterway since the conflict began. In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy denied the ships transited the strait, warning any attempt to do so would face a “decisive, firm response.”

April 12th — OnchainLens monitoring shows that amid a deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations, the whale address 0x9e8 has liquidated the bulk of its 20x leveraged long position in silver over the past 5 hours, while opening a new 20x leveraged long position in oil totaling 95,577 contracts, valued at $9 million.

April 12: MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor shared updates related to its Bitcoin Tracker on Thursday, with the message: "Think ?igger." Per MicroStrategy’s past pattern, the company typically discloses its Bitcoin holdings additions the day following the release of such updates.