Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

February 11: U.S. January Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 130K vs. 70K Expected; Prior Revised Down to 48K (from 50K) - Forex Factory

On February 11, CoinDesk reported that several industry insiders have noted the recent crypto market slump is a **traditional finance-driven event** rather than a crypto industry crisis. As yen interest rates climb, borrowing costs rise—and heightened volatility has pushed margin requirements higher. For instance, margin requirements for metal trading have jumped from 11% to 16%, forcing some traders to liquidate positions. This has exerted downward pressure on cross-market risk assets—not just crypto. While Bitcoin ETFs saw active trading amid the slump, industry insiders emphasize this does not signal a full-scale exodus of institutional investors. Emma Lovett, Head of DLT Credit at JPMorgan Markets, noted that a more lenient U.S. policy landscape is fueling experiments ranging from private chains to public chains and stablecoin settlements. By 2026, the integration of traditional finance (TradFi) and crypto infrastructure is expected to deepen further.

**February 11 (Cointelegraph)** — Contrary to prior rumors that Arkham planned to shut down its subsidiary exchange Arkham Exchange, Arkham CEO Miguel Morel announced the crypto exchange (launched by Arkham Intelligence) is transitioning from a centralized model to a fully decentralized exchange (DEX). “The future of crypto trading is decentralized—and that’s exactly the path we’re laser-focused on building,” Morel stated. Launched in 2024, Arkham Exchange supports spot crypto trading and perpetual contracts. The platform rolled out a mobile app by the end of 2025. Per CoinGecko data, its current daily average trading volume stands at roughly $640,000.

On February 11, Superset—a unified liquidity execution layer for stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and on-chain forex—closed a $4 million seed funding round. The round was led by 7RIDGE and Exponential Science Capital. The project is currently partnering with liquidity providers, market makers, stablecoin issuers, aggregators, and wallets to prep for a larger-scale product launch. When asked about the core challenge Superset aims to tackle, the team noted that while the stablecoin market is large and fast-growing, it’s highly fragmented in structure. That’s exactly the problem Superset is built to solve.

On February 11, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that ahead of tonight’s release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is 21.7%, while the likelihood of holding interest rates unchanged stands at 78.3%. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish January’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls (expected: 7,000 new jobs) and January’s unemployment rate (expected: 4.40%) tonight at 21:30 Beijing Time (UTC+8). Ahead of upcoming key U.S. employment and inflation readings, investors are growing cautious, sending Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies lower. Analysts note the market is in a consolidation phase, awaiting clearer guidance on interest rate trends. Meanwhile, demand for downside protection in crypto-related stocks—such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy—is rising.