Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

**Crypto Market Downturn Drives Apeiron Capital to Liquidate ETHA Stake** On February 4, as the crypto market downturn deepened, another institution exited its position in the Ethereum ETF. Per latest disclosure filings, Hong Kong’s Apeiron Capital Limited liquidated its entire stake in the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) in Q4 2025, selling 285,400 shares for roughly $8.99 million. ETHA had previously made up ~4.3% of Apeiron’s assets under management (AUM)—that share has now fallen to zero. The move is another clear sign of position reduction amid a sharp pullback in Ethereum and related assets. As of January 30, data shows ETHA traded at $20.17: down 17.7% over the past year, lagging the S&P 500 by ~32 percentage points. Following the recent crypto selloff, its 12-month decline has widened to over 30%. For 2025 year-to-date, ETHA’s net asset value (NAV) has dropped more than 11%. Analysts note Apeiron’s ETHA liquidation does not signal a rejection of blockchain or Ethe

On February 4, a Coindesk report spotlighted an on-chain metric—with a track record of multiple validation cycles—that’s once again grabbing market attention. The data shows: when Bitcoin’s profitable supply and loss-making supply converge significantly, it typically signals a bear market bottom. Glassnode figures reveal roughly 11.1 million BTC are currently in profitable positions, while 8.9 million sit in unrealized loss territory. Historically, when these two metrics near equilibrium, Bitcoin has repeatedly hit its cyclical bottom. Calculated using current cost basis, further convergence of profitable and loss-making supply could push Bitcoin’s spot price near the $60k range. This signal emerged in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022—each time aligning closely with major market lows. Analysts note that as Bitcoin’s price oscillates around the overall market cost line, supply shifts between profitable and loss-making positions, reflecting broader investor pressure and sentiment clea

**A Feb. 4 Reuters survey projects gold will hit a new high in 2026, with geopolitical uncertainties and robust central bank buying remaining top drivers.** A poll of 30 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks puts the 2026 median gold price at $4,746.50 per ounce—this marks the highest annual forecast since Reuters launched the survey in 2012, and a sharp rise from the $4,275 estimate in October 2023. Just 12 months ago, the same survey’s average 2026 gold price expectation was only $2,700. Analysts say the factors boosting gold—including geopolitical risks, sustained central bank gold purchases, concerns over Federal Reserve independence, rising U.S. debt, trade uncertainties, and the de-dollarization trend—will continue supporting the metal in 2026. Silver forecasts have also been revised upward: the current 2026 average silver price projection is $79.50 per ounce, up from just $50 in last October’s survey. (Jinse Finance)

February 4th — As the cryptocurrency market continued to pull back, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest once again went against the grain. On Tuesday, ARK purchased approximately $19 million worth of shares in crypto-related public companies, marking its second consecutive day of buying the dip. Disclosures show ARK’s new positions include: $2.41 million in Circle (CRCL), $3.46 million in Bullish (BLSH), $631,000 in Coinbase (COIN), $7.81 million in Robinhood (HOOD), $3.25 million in Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), and $1.8 million in Block (XYZ). These holdings are spread across ARK’s ETFs, including ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF. Shares of the above firms have recently come under pressure amid a broad crypto market downturn, with Bitcoin dropping to a low of $73,100 — a new low since late 2024. The market views ARK’s buying spree as a proactive move following a significant pullback in crypto assets and related stocks.

February 4th data from OnchainLens shows a whale address—silent for 9 months—borrowed 20 million USDT over the past two days to purchase 8,806 ETH at $2,271 each. The whale currently holds 21,094 ETH in total, valued at approximately $47.53 million. Address: 0x5E90387025235d07576f80C76B3E57EC96547ec4

February 4: Per Arkham data, a BlackRock ETHA address transferred 6,648 ETH to Coinbase Prime just an hour ago—valued at roughly $14.83 million.