Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

JPMorgan Securities Japan strategists noted that yen strength is expected to ease upward pressure on Japanese government bond (JGB) yields, thereby spurring an earlier recovery for Tokyo-listed AI and semiconductor sectors. Strategists including Rie Nishihara wrote in a report that the recently underperforming real estate sector could also stand to benefit. Some sectors are facing negative impacts on earnings from yen appreciation, such as transportation, logistics, and automotive industries. JPMorgan’s view on potential gains for Tokyo’s AI and semiconductor sectors stands in contrast to Saxo Bank’s global stock outlook for the same segments. Saxo strategist Charu Chanana previously stated that a yen rebound could trigger liquidation of some crowded and leveraged positions. (Jinshi)

Solana ecosystem cat-themed meme coin Anonymous Cat (ZCAT) has distributed roughly 2,320 ZEC to eligible holders via its unique transaction tax mechanism, worth approximately $2.75 million at current prices, with over 470,000 reward distributions completed. ZCAT levies a 3% transaction tax on every transfer; most of the proceeds are converted into Zcash (ZEC) and then allocated to wallets holding at least $20 worth of ZCAT. With ZEC surging sharply recently, this mechanism has significantly increased the ZEC rewards earned by ZCAT holders. It is worth noting that these ZEC do not come from business revenue, but from transaction taxes generated by other users buying, selling, and transferring ZCAT. As such, ZCAT’s reward scale is highly dependent on its own trading activity; once trading volume declines, ZEC rewards for holders will also drop substantially. Per GMGN market data, ZCAT currently has a market capitalization of around $111 million, a 4.39% 24-hour drop, and a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $20.5 million.

Andy, founder of Rollup, published a post stating that market rumors suggest the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing to roll out its largest-ever tokenization innovation exemption policy. The policy would potentially allow tokenized securities to trade exclusively through registered transfer agents, eliminating the need for broker-dealer licenses or compliance with rules for traditional trading platforms or alternative trading systems (ATS), and is reportedly set to cover U.S. retail investors and overseas participants. Andy noted that if the news is true, the potential impact would be significant. Tokenized funds could be issued and traded directly as on-chain tokens, with transfer agents maintaining legal ownership records on-chain. Meanwhile, underlying assets held by funds—such as stocks and bonds—could also be further tokenized, forming an on-chain trading system of "fund tokens + underlying asset tokens". Andy further added that a major fund has received the SEC's "green light", though this has not been officially confirmed. He speculated that potential participants could include ARK, Fidelity, or BlackRock. If the policy is ultimately implemented, U.S. asset management firms may accelerate the issuance of native equity tokens to compete for round-the-clock liquidity and on-chain distribution channels, rather than waiting for third parties to mirror-tokenize traditional securities. He further linked this potential policy shift to recent moves by the Trump administration to open up crypto market regulation and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s push to bring perpetual contracts into the U.S. market, suggesting that the U.S. regulatory environment may be gradually opening the policy gates for on-chain finance.

Insight Beating AI News Flash: Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon announced his resignation and plans to exit the AI industry. Over the past three years, he has worked on pre-training research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. He criticized that neither company is advancing AI responsibly, and they are racing to build superintelligence that continuously enhances their own capabilities, "betting with our lives." He switched from OpenAI to Anthropic earlier this year, originally because he believed the latter placed more emphasis on model safety. Coxon admitted that Anthropic’s safety work is earnest, but argued that as long as companies compete to be the first to develop AGI (artificial general intelligence, AI that outperforms humans across a wide range of tasks), safety compromises will be unavoidable, and self-regulation by a single company cannot resolve the issue. His assessment of the two firms: many at OpenAI still haven’t truly realized how severe these risks are; Anthropic is aware of the risks but believes others cannot be trusted, so it must develop AGI first. Coxon noted that some AI practitioners are far more pessimistic in private than their public statements, even fearing AI could destroy humanity before the end of this decade. He himself judges that in the most extreme scenario, AI could spiral out of control as early as next year, so such decisions should not be made solely by internal engineers at a handful of companies.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, an address starting with 0x2b0f engaged in concentrated short selling of U.S. stock indices this morning, opening a total of roughly $20.59 million in short positions on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. The positions were concentrated in two index contracts: Nasdaq XYZ100: Between 07:03 and 09:10, 331.6331 contracts were shorted, with trading volume of approximately $9.79 million and an average entry price of around $29,510.4. For the S&P 500: Between 07:11 and 07:25, 1408.172 contracts were shorted, trading volume of about $10.80 million, average entry price of roughly $7,671.15. As of press time, both short positions remain fully held, with a combined value of approximately $20.62 million and an unrealized loss of about $26,600. The address used 30x and 50x full leverage respectively, with liquidation prices of around $30,803.7 and $7,970.8. Fund records show the address received ~771,300 USDC at 07:00 today, followed by an additional ~25,000 USDC, totaling ~796,300 USDC in deposits; the first index trade took place at 07:03, roughly 3 minutes after the initial funds arrived.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, a new Hyperliquid address created less than 24 hours ago made its first move today, buying 500 BTC in under four minutes for a total transaction value of approximately $39.36 million. The address starting with 0xcfe2 first received around 1.9998 million USDC at 12:08 yesterday, followed by another ~9.9 million USDC transfer at 02:03 today. Both funds came from the same address starting with 0x6b9e, totaling ~11.8998 million USDC in inflows. At 9 AM today, the address completed 10 consecutive buys of 50 BTC each, taking only 3 minutes and 39 seconds to expand its BTC position to 500 units. The position is currently valued at ~$39.369 million, with an average entry price of ~$78,639.3 and an unrealized profit of ~$49,300. It is currently using 20x full leverage, with a liquidation price of approximately $55,570.7.