Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

USD stablecoin protocol Apyx announced in a statement that the Token Generation Event (TGE) for its APYX token, originally scheduled for October 13, has been delayed, with no new date disclosed yet. The project team said the extra time will be used to strengthen its core protocol and expand Apyx into a more comprehensive Real World Asset (RWA) ecosystem. Apyx noted that recent STRC has seen its longest and sharpest drawdown since issuance. While the protocol’s operations remain unaffected, the event exposed that digital credit assets have higher volatility than previously anticipated, requiring further improvements to risk management. Additionally, multiple traditional financial institutions have reached out proactively, seeking to tokenize other real-world assets via Apyx’s infrastructure, prompting the team to re-evaluate the project’s development direction. Going forward, Apyx will further optimize apxUSD and apyUSD, including reducing the transmission of underlying asset volatility to holders, enhancing risk-adjusted returns, and expanding to more chains and use cases. The protocol also plans to extend custody, asset verification, on-chain Net Asset Value (NAV), redemption mechanisms, and compliance infrastructure to more RWA assets. The Apyx Pips Campaign will continue running: Season 2 will not end as originally scheduled on October 11, and point accumulation will remain uninterrupted. Due to the extended campaign period, Season 2’s airdrop allocation ratio will be increased from 6% to 9%, with the new end date to be announced alongside the TGE date. All allocations from Season 1 and Season 2 will remain fully unlocked at TGE.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has continued to climb, reaching 5.081%—its highest level since July 17, 2007.

S&P Global data shows that the preliminary U.S. September Composite PMI Output Index rose to 58.4, significantly higher than August’s 56.0, marking the highest level since July 2021, indicating notable expansion in both manufacturing and services sector activity. The New Orders Index climbed from 55.2 to 58.2, its highest since March 2022. Strong demand pushed backlogs of uncompleted orders to their highest level since May 2022. S&P Global noted that the order backlog signals further expansion in future output and production capacity on one hand, while on the other hand, it indicates enhanced corporate pricing power, which could intensify inflationary pressures. Price indicators also rose notably: the Corporate Input Purchasing Prices Index climbed from 59.9 to 66.4, hitting its highest since October 2022. S&P Global pointed out that supply chain delays and insufficient operational capacity are driving up corporate costs, with supplier delivery times extending to their widest level since July 2022. Following the data release, spot gold fell below $4,300, the U.S. Dollar Index broke above 101, U.S. Treasury yields rose further, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to above 5%. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% last week, signaling potential further rate hikes in the coming months.

WTI and Brent crude oil futures rallied sharply in the short term. WTI crude hit $92 per barrel, up 2.82% on the day, while Brent crude broke above $98 per barrel, rising 2.76% intraday. In terms of news drivers, according to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Al-Araghchi’s interaction with Steve Witkov, one of former US President Trump’s negotiators, was not coordinated or approved by relevant decision-making and responsible bodies including the Supreme National Security Council. Claims that the interaction was coordinated are untrue. Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated in a prior TV interview that the original plan was to once again convey Iran’s proposed seven conditions to the "intermediary". This is seen as indirectly indicating that Al-Araghchi did not receive authorization to exceed that scope and directly engage with Witkov. Accordingly, Al-Araghchi is required to explain to relevant bodies and the Iranian people over this alleged "improper" action, clarifying why he took the move in a way contrary to national interests.

During the 7th live session of HTX’s Expert Lecture Hall, WZ, an asset analyst at HTX Research, noted that while crypto trends were once explained solely by crypto-specific factors, an increasing number of variables shaping the next crypto market cycle are now emerging outside the sector—marking the start of a new pricing cycle for crypto assets. On the regulatory front, WZ pointed out that while the comprehensive Clarity Act has faced Senate voting hurdles due to factors including the need to secure bipartisan votes, ties to the Trump family’s interests, and disputes over stablecoin revenue distribution, U.S. crypto regulation has not stalled. For instance, the SEC recently released an “innovation exemption” framework, allowing eligible compliant institutions to tokenize specific stocks, accelerating the integration of traditional finance and crypto. On the macro front, WZ noted that Middle East tensions and risks of a Strait of Hormuz blockade have lifted crude oil’s “risk premium”. Rising oil prices will stoke inflation expectations, which in turn impact U.S. Treasury yields and global liquidity. When energy prices remain elevated and interest rates stay high, upside potential for risk assets like Bitcoin may be constrained. WZ also added that in this cycle, the direct inflows and outflows of ETF funds have altered the traditional capital spillover logic, making a broad-based altcoin rally unlikely. However, in the new cycle, assets with new narratives and strong consensus will still see independent upward trends.

Bonk Guy announced in a post that the number of addresses holding USELESS has hit a new all-time high. He pointed out that USELESS has maintained a recurring cyclical pattern over the past several months: outperforming the market, followed by a sharp pullback, consolidation, and then a fresh new high. Bonk Guy added that USELESS’s market capitalization has surged from a low of roughly $28 million a few months ago to approximately $318 million, with short-, medium-, and long-term cycles all exhibiting a trend of progressively rising highs and lows. He noted that this trajectory is distinct from the typical performance of meme coins, which usually peak after a rally.