Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

April 28 – The U.S. Department of Justice has concluded its investigation into Jerome Powell. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has dropped his obstruction of Janet Yellen’s confirmation process for Federal Reserve Chair. The Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11 to advance Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination to the full Senate, with the vote scheduled for April 29 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time (per the committee’s official website). On the same day, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its latest interest rate decision. Current Fed Chair Powell will hold his 63rd – and potentially final – press conference following the meeting, marking the end of his eight-year tenure at the central bank. Powell’s Fed Chair term expires May 15, but his term on the Fed Board continues through January 31, 2028. Whether Powell will resign from the Fed Board has emerged as a key market focus.

On April 28th, per Onchainlens data, a whale withdrew 4,361 ETH (≈$9.9 million) from Kraken over the past 30 minutes. The whale now holds a total of 4,383 ETH (≈$10 million).

April 28th — Data from Farside Investors indicates U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $263 million yesterday, with the following breakdown: - Fidelity FBTC: -$150 million - Bitwise BITB: -$8.8 million - ARK ARKB: -$43.3 million - VanEck HODL: -$14.1 million - Grayscale GBTC: -$46.6 million Separately, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs posted a net outflow of $50.4 million yesterday, including: - BlackRock ETHA: -$13.8 million - BlackRock ETHB: +$11.8 million - Fidelity FETH: -$48.4 million ### Notes on alignment with American English habits: 1. **Concise structure**: Opens with date + core data (standard for financial briefs). 2. **Verb choice**: Uses "indicates" (neutral, authoritative) and "posted" (common in financial reporting for fund flows). 3. **Clarity**: Separates Bitcoin/Ethereum sections with "Separately" to avoid confusion. 4. **Correction**: Fixed "Btwise" to **Bitwise** (the correct name of the U.S.-based crypto asset manager, aligning with i

On April 28, The Wall Street Journal reported—citing people familiar with the matter—that Meta is preparing to walk away from its planned acquisition of Manus, an AI agent startup. As part of terminating the deal, Meta will be required to let Manus’s founders depart. Previously, Meta had pursued a model of acquiring only the team, not the entire company; letting the founders leave therefore amounts to Meta voluntarily dismantling the core asset of this planned acquisition.

April 28: Market focus shifted from singular geopolitical risk to **"policy divergence + liquidity repricing"**. ### Key Macro Updates: - **BOJ**: Held rates steady in a 6-3 vote; internal dissent hit a fresh high, signaling inflation pressures are *nearing the threshold for a policy shift*. - **Fed (pre-decision)**: Amid inflation pressures, **virtually no one pushed back against holding rates steady** (including dovish Fed member Milan). Risk sentiment around the future rate path has turned cautious—markets will watch forward guidance closely. ### BTC Price Action: BTC failed to sustain prior momentum, pulling back from near $80k as long positions get liquidated. Per the **liquidation heatmap**: - Heavy long liquidations clustered around $76k–$77k (below current price). - The $78.5k–$80k range (above) remains a *near-term bearish pressure zone* with liquidity buildup. Result: Market is in a classic **two-way squeeze structure** (incentives to push both ways).

On April 28th, Onchainlens monitoring noted a whale transferred 300 Bitcoin from Binance—after 10 months of inactivity—valued at ~$23.03 million. The same whale has accumulated 718 Bitcoin over the past three years, totaling ~$55.06 million in value.