Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

May 26, Binance announced it’s returning to the Philippine market in a regulatory-compliant manner through a partnership with local firm BlockShoals. The collaboration will operate under the Philippines Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s regulatory sandbox framework, allowing Binance to transition from its restricted status—rooted in earlier regulatory issues—to an officially authorized testing phase. The regulatory sandbox will let Binance offer trading and other services in a controlled environment, with the potential to secure a formal operating license once the testing period wraps up. For context: Binance had run operations in the Philippines before, but the SEC restricted it in 2024 for operating without the required licenses.

May 26th. Analyst Murphy noted that Bitcoin’s current market conditions are best observed via the “Short-Term On-Chain Activity Value Weight” — the share of on-chain USD value attributed to short-term chip turnover. This indicator tracks the latest short-term trading behaviors: speculation, arbitrage, profit-taking, or panic selling. Currently, this weight has fallen to a historically low level, a threshold only ever seen during bear market bottoms in the past 15 years. This points to a significant drop in short-term turnover, with economic value shifting toward long-term chip accumulation, signaling the market is in a phase of low volatility, accumulation, or clear bottom characteristics. Murphy believes that, based on this data, the market could currently be in one of three stages: a bear market bottom, a secondary bottom (possibly involving one final drop), or pre-bull market accumulation. However, rational analysis temporarily rules out the pre-bull accumulation scenario. He advis

May 26 – Iran’s state television is reporting that recent claims from some foreign media outlets about a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Iran and the U.S. are “pure fabrication and completely baseless.” The network noted that some media sources had alleged just hours earlier they’d obtained the final draft of the Iran-U.S. MOU, which was said to include terms for opening the Strait of Hormuz, launching nuclear talks, and unfreezing Iran’s blocked funds. But all these claims are false, per the state TV report. Tracking data from PolyBeats shows that on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement plummeted in the short term over multiple recent dates. Currently, the odds of such a deal being reached by May 31 stand at 26%, while the likelihood of it happening by June 30 is 56%.

Binance Alpha will launch Citrea (CTR) on May 26 at 21:00 UTC+8. Users who hold at least 211 Alpha points are eligible to join the first-come, first-served airdrop, where they will receive 1,090 CTR tokens.

May 26 update from BlockBeats: Following the launch of OpenAI U Perpetual Futures pre-IPO trading on Binance, the platform’s "estimated per-share price" briefly spiked to $1,630, and is currently trading at $1,600—putting OpenAI’s projected post-listing market capitalization at $1.6 trillion. Separately, on Hyperliquid ecosystem’s trade.xyz trading platform, OpenAI’s current "estimated per-share price" stands at $1,378, translating to a $1.378 trillion post-listing market cap. This means Binance is charging a roughly 16% premium over trade.xyz’s pricing. Earlier this month, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman noted that even if the company files for an IPO quickly, it may not go public immediately. The firm’s earliest listing target is September, though the timeline remains flexible. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among the investment banks assisting OpenAI with drafting its IPO prospectus. According to PolyBeats’ monitoring of prediction market Polymarket, the odds of OpenAI going pu

According to monitoring from DeepChain Beating via t.me/OneMillion_AI, insiders have revealed that ByteDance is offering discounted stock options tied to its Seed AI division to employees globally. This marks ByteDance’s first issuance of equity for a specific business unit, and the incentive plan allows employees to share in the Seed division’s growth without being diluted by the performance of ByteDance’s other lines of business. Insiders added that ByteDance opened up subscriptions to its “Beanie Stock” program for Seed division employees worldwide this month, with a share price of $13. Since the stock was granted at roughly $10 per share at the end of last year, its value has climbed nearly 30%.