Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

U.S. leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are growing at a record pace, with investor leverage also hitting an all-time high. The 3x long Nasdaq 100 ETF TQQQ now has roughly $40 billion in assets under management (AUM), near its all-time peak. Meanwhile, the 3x long semiconductor ETF SOXL has reached an all-time high of $34 billion in AUM. Since April, SOXL’s AUM has more than tripled, while TQQQ’s AUM has nearly doubled. By comparison, the 2x long Nasdaq 100 ETF QLD added $7 billion in AUM over the same period, an 88% rise, bringing its size close to an all-time high of $15 billion. Driven by these gains, the total AUM of U.S. leveraged ETFs has hit an all-time high of $198 billion, up 55% over the same period.

According to a post by analyst Darkfost, the realized price of Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders (STH) is currently around $74,800, and BTC has traded below this cost level for eight consecutive months, leaving most short-term holders under unrealized loss pressure. The average unrealized loss for STHs is now roughly 14.4%, a notable improvement from the over 34% unrealized loss level seen in February this year. Notably, the STH cost basis has dropped from $95,700 to $74,800, indicating that some short-term holders continued accumulating BTC during the downturn, pulling down the overall average holding cost. During this cycle, STH unrealized profits hit a peak of 47% in March 2024, but stood at just 11% when BTC set its all-time high in October 2025, reflecting that the market’s profit-taking level is significantly weaker than in prior phases. The $74,800 STH cost level remains a key resistance point for BTC. If Bitcoin can reclaim this level, it could signal a positive shift in market structure; until then, this zone is likely to act as a sell-pressure area for short-term holders looking to break even.

According to Bitget market data, South Korea’s KOSPI index erased as much as 4% of its morning gains, turning negative intraday and now down over 1%. Samsung Electronics’ gain narrowed to 3%, SK Hynix fell 3%, while Hong Kong-listed Southern’s twice-leveraged bull product on SK Hynix dropped more than 8.6%.

According to on-chain analyst ai_9684xtpa’s monitoring, Wang Chun withdrew 50.5 WBTC from Binance again one hour ago, valued at approximately $3.17 million. Since June 18, his address has cumulatively withdrawn 12,282.9 ETH and 475.87 WBTC, totaling around $50.715 million. The average purchase prices of ETH and WBTC stand at $1,696.41 and $62,788 respectively.

Binance will suspend its stock trading services between 18:50 and 23:00 (UTC+8) on June 27, 2026, due to planned system upgrades by its partner broker. Users must cancel all pending orders ahead of the upgrade window to avoid automatic cancellation of their orders.

Luxshare Precision, a core A-share stock in AI computing power infrastructure, plans to list in Hong Kong and raise approximately $3 billion. The company has obtained filing approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and submitted an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX).