Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

As of February 19, Arkham data indicates the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has mined a total of $453.6 million worth of Bitcoin to date through its partnership with mining firm Citadel. The UAE is known to have retained the majority of its mined Bitcoin, with the last recorded outflow occurring four months ago. After accounting for energy costs, the country currently holds a $344 million profit from its Bitcoin holdings.

Per Farside Investors data (Feb. 19th), U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs posted a net outflow of $133.3M yesterday, with: - BlackRock’s IBIT: -$84.2M - Fidelity’s FBTC: -$49.1M Separately, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $41.8M in net outflows yesterday, including: - BlackRock’s ETHA: -$29.9M - Fidelity’s FETH: -$8.2M - ProShares’ QETH: -$3.7M ### Notes on American language habits reflected: 1. **Conciseness**: Uses "$X.XM" (million abbreviation) and short verbs ("posted", "recorded") common in financial alerts. 2. **Clarity**: Employs brand possessives ("BlackRock’s IBIT") to link issuers to their ETFs; lists key data with bullet points for readability. 3. **Flow**: Uses "Separately" (instead of "In addition") to transition between asset classes smoothly, a standard practice in U.S. financial news. 4. **Date formatting**: Abbreviates "February" to "Feb." and places dates in parentheses for brevity. 5. **Plurality**: Uses "ETFs" (plural) since multiple funds are refer

As of February 19, Arkham data shows Michael Saylor has accumulated $54.52 billion in Bitcoin purchases over five and a half years of continuous buying, with an average holding cost of $76,027. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is 12.4% below that average, leaving Saylor with an unrealized loss of $6.7 billion.

February 19th — U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno, a cryptocurrency supporter, says the much-anticipated Clarity Act — which aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto industry — is expected to pass by April. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joined Moreno for an interview where he noted they’re engaging with representatives from the crypto sector, banking industry, and U.S. Congress at the World Financial Forum (WLF) Crypto Forum to hash out solutions to market structure issues. “One of the key past sticking points has been interest-bearing stablecoins,” Armstrong stated. The banking sector previously raised concerns that offering interest on stablecoins could undermine traditional banking, leading to deposit and interest outflows from banks. Though Armstrong had reservations about the draft and pulled his support for the Clarity Act in January, he now says: “We have a path forward for a win-win-win — a win for crypto, a win for banks, a win for U.S. consumers — to

Feb. 19: Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett shared on social media that the third stablecoin regulation meeting is set for tomorrow—Feb. 20—at 9:00 a.m. ET at the White House. A small group of crypto and banking industry reps are expected to attend.

Feb. 19 — Three Federal Reserve Board researchers argue the prediction market Kalshi outperforms existing tools for real-time macroeconomic expectation tracking and should be integrated into Fed decision-making. Titled *Kalshi and the Rise of the Macro Market*, the paper was published Feb. 12 by Fed Board Chief Economist Anthony Diercks, Fed Research Assistant Jared Dean Katz, and Johns Hopkins Research Assistant Jonathan Wright. The study pitted Kalshi’s data against traditional surveys and market-implied forecasts to analyze how market expectations of future economic outcomes shift in response to macro news and policymakers’ remarks. “Managing expectations is central to modern macroeconomic policy—but the tools we typically rely on (surveys and financial derivatives) have major flaws,” the researchers noted. They added Kalshi captures market “beliefs” directly and in real time, and its market offers a high-frequency, continuously updated, information-rich benchmark useful fo