Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

April 9 — Hyperinsight data shows the top 4 short positions on Hyperliquid (0x4a2 prefix) closed their shorts in one go over the past 10 minutes, triggering a short-term price spike on the 15-minute chart. The liquidation volume hit 15,000 ETH (~$32.94M), with a liquidation price of $2,196. The move netted an approximate profit of $260,000. Relevant address: 0x4a20b9496610941053858bd0b7e92493f44c3c26

On April 9, Binance announced the launch of a prediction market feature, allowing users to engage in probability-based markets via third-party platform integrations within the Binance app. When Binance Wallet launches, it will integrate with Predict.fun—an on-chain prediction market provider on Binance Smart Chain (BSC)—to offer market access. Prediction markets let participants bet on future outcomes across sports, economics, global events, culture, and cryptocurrency. Each outcome (yes/no) is represented by a share priced between $0.01 and $0.99, reflecting participants’ collective belief in the outcome’s likelihood. For example, in a sufficiently liquid market, a $0.80 share signals an 80% probability of that outcome occurring. When the market settles, shares of the correct outcome will pay out $1.

On April 9, Bybit announced the launch of this week’s “Weird Wednesday” event. BTC is the featured asset for this cycle, and the platform is offering new users a limited-time special high-yield financial product with an annualized return rate of up to 555%.

April 9 — As US-Iran tensions ease in phases, Wall Street is increasingly leaning on a trading playbook tied to the Trump administration’s style: “TACO Trading” (short for “Trump Always Chickens Out”). Wall Street broadly expects the president’s hardline geopolitical rhetoric to typically fizzle into compromise, framing escalating tensions as buying opportunities. Data shows markets had already positioned for risk assets ahead of Trump’s announcement pausing military action against Iran. The S&P 500 notched its first weekly gain in six weeks, while option markets saw little risk premium — suggesting investors were largely unconcerned about extreme outcomes. Institutional views note markets are repeating a familiar cycle: conflict escalation → emotional pressure → de-escalation → asset rebound. Some analysts say systematic investors may be in one of the most profitable environments in history. But warnings persist: such broad consensus could erode markets’ ability to constrain

April 9 — Southeast Asia’s first OpenClaw Agentic Trading Event is set to launch in Singapore this Wednesday, April 16, at 7 p.m. SGT. Co-hosted by Moss (an open platform for AI trading agents), Lightspeed Venture Partners, early-stage blockchain VC Faction, and BlockBeats, the event will highlight how top Southeast Asian developers are building agent-based trading applications using OpenClaw. On-site guests include co-founders of perpetual DEX project Grvt, co-founders of blockchain VC Superscrypt, and developers from the OpenClaw Singapore community.

April 9 (per UK ITV News) — Iran’s deputy foreign minister addressed two key issues in his latest remarks: 1. **Strait of Hormuz Status**: He denied reports the Strait of Hormuz had been closed, noting the waterway remains open to all civilian ships and dismissing related claims as inaccurate. However, he said vessels transiting the strait must contact Iranian authorities in advance for safe passage guidance due to wartime sea mines—all vessels that have coordinated with Iran have been granted passage. 2. **Lebanon Ceasefire & Islamabad Talks**: An Iranian delegation will travel to Islamabad for peace talks only if Israel halts its attacks on Lebanon, he stated. He stressed any regional peace deal must include Lebanon, adding the “next few hours will be critical.” He also disclosed Iran was on the verge of retaliatory action last night but exercised restraint due to diplomatic considerations and after the U.S. called on Israel to agree to a ceasefire. For now, Iran is keepi