Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

This week, bond investors will closely monitor the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Walsh at Jackson Hole. Markets are looking for his approach to addressing persistent inflation and fiscal issues, with long-term Treasury bonds facing the risk of further sell-offs. Since taking office in May, Walsh has rarely offered forward-looking policy guidance. His speech following the last monetary policy meeting triggered a massive bond market sell-off, underscoring the market’s high sensitivity to his upcoming speech this Friday. Molly Brooks, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities, said: "I think if he continues to withhold more information as he has done, the market will be disappointed, which could further exacerbate the recent sell-off in long-term Treasuries." Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said factors weighing on the bond market remain, including fiscal concerns, inflation, and uncertainty over the Fed’s policy responses. Dhiraj Narula, rates strategist at HSBC, noted this gives Walsh an opportunity to reassure investors by clarifying his policy outlook. He said: "In our view, if Chair Walsh can offer some assessment of underlying inflation pressures, that could be enough to lower the term premium tied to uncertainty."

According to Reuters, Tether’s bitcoin mining farm project in Uruguay has been shut down due to a power supply contract dispute with local state-owned power company UTE. The project’s investment is estimated at around $120 million. The two sides hold differing views on the contracted power supply volume: Tether regards the figure as a minimum guaranteed supply, while UTE considers it a cap on power delivery. As no new agreement was signed and power fees fell into arrears, UTE cut power to the two mining sites on July 25, 2025. Tether subsequently ended its local operations and laid off most of its staff. The Uruguay project was once seen by Tether as the "first step" in its push into the South American bitcoin mining market. However, Tether continues to expand its regional energy and mining footprint; it previously acquired a 70% stake in renewable energy firm Adecoagro and plans to use its surplus power for bitcoin mining.

DeFi fixed-rate lending protocol Term Finance’s vault fell victim to a governance attack, with blockchain security firms PeckShield and CertiK estimating losses of roughly $8.5 million. The attacker allegedly transferred approximately 2,843 ETH and $1.68 million in USDC, converting the USDC to DAI. The attack targeted Term Strategy Vaults built on the Yearn V3 architecture, though Yearn clarified the vulnerability stemmed from Term’s custom governance mechanism deployed on the vaults’ outer layer—standard Yearn vaults were not impacted. Notably, Term’s vault governance transactions originally featured a 7-day timelock and allowed LP votes to veto changes, but these protective measures failed to prevent the attack. Prior to the incident, Term’s vaults held a total value locked (TVL) of around $12.45 million; the loss accounts for roughly 68% of the vaults’ total TVL. Term Labs is still investigating the specific attack path.

The next blockbuster acquisition in the AI sector may not come from another model developer. AI model aggregation platform Hugging Face is currently exploring a sale, with potential valuations for the company possibly reaching $13 billion or more. According to people familiar with the matter, the startup is working with a bank to gauge interest from potential bidders, and no deal has been finalized yet. (Jinshi)

Due to the withdrawal of the original GANA Foundation, Eiden Liu announced he has left the foundation and will launch a compensation plan in his personal capacity, voluntarily taking on relevant liability with the goal of achieving 100% compensation. The first phase of the plan is expected to involve around 20,000 addresses; subsequent verifications will be conducted gradually based on on-chain real data, with compensation disbursed in batches. The overall compensation period is tentatively set at 2 to 3 years. Eiden Liu noted that while the foundation has withdrawn, the responsibility remains, and he will continue to fulfill relevant obligations through concrete actions.

Federal Reserve’s Kashkari downplayed market concerns over rising U.S. Treasury yields, saying the market is functioning well and the recent surge is unlikely to impact monetary policy discussions. Kashkari stated on Sunday: “All signs show the U.S. Treasury market is operating normally, trading is proceeding smoothly, and market liquidity is sufficient, so we can use the federal funds rate as the primary policy tool to curb inflation.” U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities rose last week, with the benchmark 10-year yield closing around 4.73%. The 30-year yield held near its highest level since 2007. Kashkari added that while current Treasury yields are high compared to recent historical levels, yields were much higher in the 1990s. “We need more data, but I don’t want to prejudge the outcome of the next meeting. However, I currently don’t think inflation will fall back to the target level in the short term.”