Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

During the weekend when traditional markets are closed, on-chain Nasdaq Trade.xyz leverages perpetual contracts to deliver continuous trading and real-time price discovery—features unavailable in traditional finance—pricing in advance the performance of U.S. and South Korean stocks for Monday. Most popular U.S. stock assets on Trade.xyz saw minor gains from their Friday after-hours levels, and are expected to rise slightly overall ahead of Monday’s pre-market. Their weekend performance: SpaceX is at $108.6, up from $107.8 in Friday after-hours; Micron (MU) at $847.9 vs. $812.47; SanDisk (SNDK) at $1244 vs. $1205; NVIDIA at $200.34 vs. $198.98; Marvell Technology (MRVL) at $193 vs. $185.6; Intel at $92.48 vs. $89.2; Google at $355.6 vs. $354.25; AMD at $485.02 vs. $472.12. Popular South Korean stocks on Trade.xyz have mostly declined from their Friday closing prices, with an expected 5-7% drop at Monday’s open. Their weekend performance: Samsung Electronics is at $169.5, down from Friday’s close of $182; SK Hynix is at $1133 vs. Friday’s close of $1191.

CITIC Securities stated that after missing the current interest rate hike window, U.S. stock valuations will face short-term pressure regardless of whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in September. However, in the medium and long term, the implementation of rate hikes is expected to lift valuation suppression; coupled with the "Productivity and Employment Working Group"’s positive stance on AI, the U.S. stock AI narrative is likely to persist long-term. On July 29, the FOMC held rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, with three voting members backing a 25 basis point rate hike. Internal divisions within the Fed have become public, and the market has shown a split reaction of "dovish short end, hawkish long end". Rising inflation expectations have weighed on the U.S. dollar and provided a window for Japan’s Ministry of Finance to intervene in the foreign exchange market. The high growth of CSP’s cloud business has, to some extent, alleviated concerns about the sustainability of AI’s triple capital expenditures. Short-term rate-sensitive industries, high-valuation low-growth sectors, and small-cap stocks are under pressure. The next window for a shift in liquidity expectations will be the late-August Jackson Hole Symposium or the September FOMC meeting.

US President Donald Trump said that if a deal is quickly reached to limit Tehran’s nuclear program and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US will suspend its planned attacks on Iran. Iran and other Middle Eastern countries need time to finalize the agreement’s terms. Trump added that Israel backs the suspension of negotiations, while the US maintains strike readiness to act swiftly should the talks fail. Iran denied seeking a pause in military operations, stating its armed forces remain on high alert. Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any new attack from the US or Israel would trigger appropriate retaliation. Saudi Arabia has called for dialogue to de-escalate the situation.

Skepticism toward AI was fully laid bare in the market reaction to this quarter’s large-cap tech earnings. Tech giants’ post-earnings performances diverged sharply: Meta tumbled as much as 8% in after-hours trading after issuing disappointing quarterly revenue guidance and posting its lowest free cash flow in years, a signal of surging expenses from its AI bets. On the other hand, Microsoft’s stock closed nearly 16% higher post-earnings, lifting its market cap by a staggering $450 billion in a single day — the largest one-day gain for any individual stock on record. The catalysts: the fastest cloud business growth in four years, and the company’s indication that it will rein in new capital expenditures this year. Amazon’s stock rose 15% post-earnings, as its upbeat cloud revenue — with growth hitting a four-year high — eased market concerns over returns on massive AI spending. Bob Lang, founder and chief options analyst at Explosive Options, said investors will eventually grow weary of the relentless spending by mega-cap firms, so it’s no surprise to see a company get a lift for reining in expenditures. Global stocks linked to the AI supply chain, as well as firms that power or adopt AI technology, also appear to be back in favor. (Jinshi)

Prediction market platform Polymarket puts the probability of Bitcoin rising to $70,000 in August at 26%. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin hitting $65,000 is 80%, while the probability of it falling to $60,000 is 56%.

This week, the combined market capitalization of six U.S. tech giants that have released earnings reports has shifted nearly $2 trillion, as investors pick winners based on cloud business growth and returns on AI capital expenditures. Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft together added nearly $1.5 trillion in market value, with Microsoft rising by over $600 billion, and both Amazon and Alphabet gaining more than $400 billion each. Meanwhile, Apple’s market cap shed over $350 billion, Meta fell by around $85 billion, and Tesla dropped roughly $7 billion. Although Apple exceeded expectations for revenue, earnings, and iPhone sales, it projected this quarter’s revenue growth at 9% to 11% — below analysts’ forecast of 12% — and noted that storage chip shortages and competition for wafer manufacturing capacity will continue to limit supply. Its stock closed down more than 7% on Friday. Amazon’s second-quarter AWS revenue rose 37% year-over-year, marking its fastest growth rate since 2021, driving its stock up over 15% on Friday. The company also raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $200 billion to $220 billion. Microsoft rose 15% on Thursday, while Meta fell 8%, reflecting a clear divergence in the market’s assessment of the two firms’ AI investment returns. Jefferies stated that U.S. tech giants’ AI spending over the next 12 months is approaching $800 billion. The current market debate is no longer over whether real demand for AI exists, but whether long-term profits can support such large-scale investments.