Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

On November 17th, based on alternative data, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index today is 14 (yesterday it was 19), with the average of last week being 29, suggesting that the market remains in a state of "extreme fear." Note: The fear index ranges from 0 to 100 and incorporates the following indicators: Volatility (25%) + Market Volume (25%) + Social Media Hype (15%) + Market Surveys (15%) + Bitcoin's Dominance in the Market (10%) + Google Trends Analysis (10%).

On November 17th, as monitored by Onchain Lens, a newly established wallet deposited 2.8 million USDC into HyperLiquid. It opened a 5x long position in STRK and a 10x long position in HYPE. Currently, this wallet has an unrealized gain of $2.4 million.

On November 17th, based on market data, Yala's stablecoin YU has encountered a depegging incident and dropped to $0.47. Yala stated yesterday that they have become aware of the community's recent concerns and are actively conducting investigations. More updates will be provided soon. On November 15th, the DeFi community YAM published a post indicating that Yala's stablecoin YU had witnessed suspicious activities. An address was borrowing USDC at an extremely high interest rate on Euler but had not repaid the borrowed amount. An address closely related to Yala had fully borrowed USDC and a large portion of the YU funds from the Yala Frontier market on Euler. Despite the high interest rate remaining unchanged, there was no repayment. Currently, the market's fund utilization rate has reached 100%, meaning that lenders cannot withdraw any liquidity. The Euler team has also set the borrowing limit on the Yala market on Frontier to zero. YAM also stated that currently, YU on Solana still ma

On November 17th, according to on-chain analyst Ai Auntie (@ai_9684xtpa), the whale trader "nemorino.eth" purchased 4,943 ETH on November 6th at an average price of $3,452.65, with a value of $17.06 million. After holding for 12 days, the whale sold all of its holdings during a market dip this morning and sold 5,000 ETH at $3,087.69, worth $15.43 million. In this trading cycle, the whale suffered a loss of $1.804 million.

On November 17th, according to Caixin's report, Qian Zhimin, the mastermind behind a 60,000 BTC money laundering case, was captured by the police with a digital device. On the eve of the criminal trial scheduled for September 2025, he provided the access code for the device and the passwords for two encrypted wallets. As a result, the police discovered that in addition to the 61,000 BTC, he also held other cryptocurrencies with a total value of 67 million pounds, including Bitcoin and XRP. Previously reported, in June 2014, Qian Zhimin instructed his "frontman" to open an account for him and used 180 million yuan of investor funds to purchase 100,250 BTC. Subsequently, the BTC in the account increased to 143,951. Between January and June 2017, he used 468 million yuan of investor funds to purchase 51,000 BTC through over-the-counter (OTC) trades. Thus, Qian Zhimin accumulated a total of 194,951 BTC.

Next year on November 17th, the Federal Reserve will witness the annual rotation of four Regional Fed Presidents. Among the 12 Regional Fed Presidents, five hold voting rights each year. Four of them rotate annually, while the New York Fed has permanent voting rights. In 2026, the Presidents of the Cleveland, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Minneapolis Feds will become voting members, while those of the Kansas City, Chicago, Boston, and St. Louis Feds will rotate out. Currently, all four voting Regional Fed Presidents adopt a hawkish stance. This week, Boston Fed President Collins stated that although she supported the rate cut at the previous meeting, the threshold for further cuts is "relatively high," and maintaining rates at the current level for "a certain period" may be appropriate. St. Louis Fed President Moolenaar expressed support for the rate cut at the previous meeting but emphasized that any further actions "need to be carried out with caution as there is limited room for furthe