Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

Crypto analyst Darkfost wrote in a post that Bitcoin’s long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has reclaimed its 1.10 annual moving average and held steady at that level, signaling long-term holders have posted an average profit of roughly 10% over the past year. Currently, BTC’s long-term holder SOPR stands at a weekly average of 1.25 and monthly average of 1.16, both above the annual level, pointing to improved market conditions as long-term holders begin realizing profits again. Darkfost highlighted this development merits comparison to the last bear market: near its end, long-term holders also resumed generating profits. He added that moderate profitability in the market is a positive sign that could further lift investors’ outlook for the future.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), losses in the US stock storage and optical communications sector have narrowed. Breakdown: Storage sector: Micron Technology (MU) down 2.88%, Western Digital (WDC) down 2.11%, SanDisk (SNDK) down 5.68%, Seagate Technology (STX) down 3.62%, SK Hynix (SKHY) down 3.67%. Optical communications concept stocks: Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) down 6.47%, Coherent (COHR) down 7.14%, Credo (CRDO) down 5.69%, Lumentum (LITE) down 1.57%, Nokia (NOK) down 2.99%.

Brent crude oil rose more than 2.4% on Monday, hitting a session high of $107.25 per barrel, as escalating geopolitical risks drove oil prices higher. Russia launched fresh attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities, while attacks on merchant ships near Oman and around the Strait of Hormuz amplified market concerns over disruptions to oil shipments. Technical analyst The Great Martis previously noted that Brent crude’s daily chart showed a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, and if it sustains a breakout above $110 per barrel, oil prices could test $150 per barrel next. The call was first issued when Brent was trading around $102 per barrel. The oil rally also stoked market fears of a resurgence in inflation. U.S. September CPI data is set to be released on Wednesday, with markets expecting the headline annual CPI rise to climb from 3.4% to 3.7%. Higher energy prices could push inflation up, keep interest rates elevated, and weigh on risk assets. Driven by higher oil prices and inflation concerns, Bitcoin fell to around $82,528 on Monday, down 1.4% on the day; spot gold traded at roughly $4,165.32 per ounce, down 0.71%, while silver dropped around 0.86% to $60.42 per ounce.

Venture capitalist Alex Lazarow noted in an article that over the past two years, Stripe, Mastercard, and Circle have each acquired U.S. stablecoin infrastructure firm Bridge, U.K.-based BVNK, and Singaporean cross-border payment platform Tazapay respectively. The combined value of the three deals exceeds $3 billion. The three targets were founded between 2020 and 2022, with total combined funding of around $200 million, highlighting that stablecoin payment infrastructure has become a key area for traditional payment giants and crypto firms to compete for a foothold. Specifically, Stripe announced in 2024 it would acquire Bridge for just over $1 billion; Mastercard’s BVNK transaction is valued at up to $1.8 billion total, including $1.5 billion in base consideration and $300 million in contingent consideration; Circle agreed to buy Tazapay for $400 million in stock, with the deal expected to close in 2027. Growth in stablecoin adoption, a gradually clarified regulatory framework, and surging demand for cross-border real-time payments are the primary drivers of these mergers and acquisitions. Data shows that in 2025, adjusted stablecoin transaction volume rose 91% year-over-year to $10.9 trillion, approaching Visa’s $14.2 trillion; real-world payment volume more than doubled to roughly $390 billion. These deals reflect that acquirers prioritize not only stablecoin technology, but also proven business scale, payment networks, and compliance qualifications. As stablecoin payment infrastructure matures, applications such as dollar accounts, stablecoin payment cards, and cross-border remittances are also emerging. More local infrastructure firms similar to Bridge and BVNK may be acquired across global regions in the future.

According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, last week’s total stablecoin market capitalization decreased by $856 million, decentralized exchange (DEX) spot trading volume fell 19.34% week-over-week, while perpetual contract trading volume rebounded 8.20%. In the same period, protocol revenue rose 4.44% week-over-week, with Base App’s weekly revenue surging 519%. For listed companies’ BTC holdings, one firm added to its BTC reserves last week, while three others reduced theirs, leading to a net reduction of 89 BTC, valued at roughly $7.37 million. In terms of institutional and whale activity, Strategy acquired 250 BTC last week, worth approximately $20.69 million; Bitmine purchased 12,532 ETH, valued at around $31.75 million.

Multiple Wall Street firms forecast that the month-on-month growth rate of the U.S. core CPI in September will slow from 0.29% in August to 0.21%, while the month-on-month growth rate of headline CPI is expected to rise to 0.58% driven by higher energy prices, with the year-on-year growth rate likely approaching 3.7%. The median forecast among the institutions shows that U.S. headline CPI rose 0.58% month-on-month and 3.64% year-on-year in September, while core CPI rose 0.21% month-on-month and 2.40% year-on-year. Additionally, the median forecast for core PCE’s month-on-month growth rate is 0.21%. Specifically, Deutsche Bank forecasts core CPI to rise 0.16% month-on-month, the lowest among surveyed institutions, while Morgan Stanley projects headline CPI to rise 0.62% month-on-month, the highest forecast. Overall, the market expects core inflationary pressures to ease, but rising energy prices may keep headline inflation trending higher.