Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

December 24th: Per monitoring data from HyperInsight, Huang Licheng has added 475 ETH to his long position over the past 10 hours, with purchases made in the $2932–$2942 range—representing an approximate $1.4 million position increase. He later placed partial take-profit orders in the $2960–$3125 range, which have since been partially filled. Since December 17th, the address has maintained an ETH long position, executing multiple buy-high-sell-low cycles while scaling up the position. The current ETH long position has grown from $13.2 million to $21.62 million, with an average entry price of $2978, an unrealized loss of roughly $110,000 (about 13%), and a liquidation price of $2870. Additionally, all previously held HYPE and ZEC long positions have been closed out.

On December 24th, per BitcoinTreasuries.NET, Swedish-listed firm Bitcoin Treasury Capital (BTCB) plans to raise $783,000 via the issuance of Class A preferred shares to acquire additional Bitcoin.

On December 24th, on-chain analyst Yu Jin reported that Trend Research—a subsidiary of Yihua Group—continued to expand its ETH holdings, purchasing an additional 46,379 ETH (valued at roughly $137 million) via leveraged borrowing. Trend Research began accumulating ETH in early November when prices hovered around $3,400. To date, it has acquired ~580,000 ETH total, with an aggregate value of ~$1.72 billion. The average entry price is roughly $3,208, and the position currently faces an unrealized loss of ~$141 million. Previously, the firm used leveraged loans to buy ETH, having borrowed $887 million in USDT from Aave—equating to roughly 2x leverage.

December 24th, per Coinbob Popular Address Monitoring (via https://t.me/Coinbob_track_CN), the "BTC OG Insider Whale" remains in a long position on ETH with no recent activity. The "Ultimate Short" placed a BTC take-profit order at $76,200 yesterday. Details are as follows: **"pension-usdt.eth"** Currently holds a 3x leveraged ETH long position: ~$89.08M in size, average entry price $2,967, liquidation price $1,662, unrealized profit $75,000. Yesterday, it sold 17% of its position at ETH’s local high and repurchased at a lower level, increasing the position by ~$15M. **"BTC OG Insider Whale"** No further position adjustments since adding to ETH and SOL long positions on the 18th. The account has an overall unrealized loss of ~$44.20M. Its core holding is an ETH long position: ~$603M in size, average entry $3,147, unrealized loss $36.84M (-30%). It also holds BTC and SOL long positions (both in unrealized loss). Total current position size: ~$728M, with $2.49M in funding fee los

On December 24th, market data shows the gold-silver ratio has fallen to 62.35, hitting its lowest level since July 2014. That’s down from a peak of 106 in late April this year.

December 24th — Cryptocurrency entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano argues Bitcoin’s lack of a flashy year-end price rally could actually help it avoid a major crash in Q1 next year. Speaking to CNBC, Pompliano noted that given current volatility levels, a sharp Bitcoin drop is unlikely. “Even with volatility already compressed, a 70% or 80% Bitcoin plunge would be really surprising right now,” he said. He added that Bitcoin holders’ short-term disappointment over the asset missing its $250,000 annual target has overshadowed its strong long-term performance. “Let’s not forget: Bitcoin’s up 100% in two years, nearly 300% in three. It’s been compounding,” he said. “It’s been a monster in financial markets.” Pompliano also noted that while the market’s fixated on Bitcoin’s year-to-date price drop, the decline in its volatility has been mostly ignored. “We didn’t get that expected year-end rally in late Q3 or early Q4, but we also didn’t see the 80% crash people usually fear,” he said.