Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

May 19: According to HyperInsight’s monitoring, prominent Hyperliquid trader “Loracle” — who shorted Cerebras (CBRS) at its peak last week — has continued taking profits and trimming his short position. The trader’s CBRS short size fell from $6.47 million to $4.38 million over the past session, and it remains the largest CBRS short position on Hyperliquid, with an unrealized gain of $487,000. Per Bitget market data: Cerebras — the AI chip manufacturer widely dubbed the “NVIDIA Challenger” — debuted on the US stock market on May 14, trading under the ticker symbol CBRS. Its IPO price was $185 per share, and it’s currently trading at $303.5.

May 19 — The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to roughly 5.14%, near a 16-year high last reached in 2007, leaving the global bond market deeply split. While some institutional investors argue long-term U.S. bonds offer attractive value right now, a growing cohort of market participants is concerned that persistent inflation, widening U.S. fiscal deficits, and unrest in the Middle East will drive yields even higher. Goldman Sachs notes that key metrics for long-term U.S. bonds make them a worthwhile portfolio allocation, though the bank is advising caution. Barclays, however, forecasts the 30-year Treasury yield could rise above 5.5%. BlackRock’s research arm, meanwhile, is recommending trimming holdings of developed-market bonds overall, including U.S. Treasuries. Market analysts attribute rising long-term bond term premiums to surging energy prices, ballooning U.S. fiscal deficits, and stubborn inflation momentum — developments that are eroding confidence in the widely held “

May 19, on-chain detective ZachXBT issued a warning, stating that "Gambling on Spartans is, in itself, an IQ test," and questioning the project team’s alleged long-term rug pull behavior. ZachXBT pointed out that Gurhan Kiziloz, a key figure tied to Spartans, previously ran BlockDAG Network—an entity that hadn’t launched its mainnet or mining products in years. Even so, the team pushed a presale touting "300x returns" and secured at least $3.5 billion from inexperienced retail investors. He further noted that BlockDAG has recently pivoted to a gambling-focused business model, raising suspicions that the platform may be used to "legitimize BlockDAG’s fund origins," including routing funds through excessive fees paid to employees and KOLs. Prior to this, several community members and content creators had publicly criticized Spartans’ marketing strategies and lack of operational transparency, cautioning users about potential rug pull risks.

On May 19, the Federal Reserve released the 2025 U.S. Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), which finds that 10% of American adults used or invested in cryptocurrency in 2025. That marks a 2-percentage-point increase from the previous year, though it still lags behind the 12% rate reported in 2021. Among those who used crypto, 9% purchased or held it as an investment, 2% used it to buy goods or services, and 1% used it to send funds to friends or family. The report also notes a significant difference in adoption by banking status: 6% of U.S. adults without a bank account relied on cryptocurrency for financial transactions, compared to just 2% of those who had a bank account.

May 19 – Bank of America’s latest survey found respondents’ cash levels fell to 3.9% in May from 4.3% in April, marking the largest monthly decline since February 2024. Survey key highlights: - 40% of fund managers cited a second wave of inflation as their top "tail risk," while only 4% anticipate an economic "hard landing." - Geopolitically, 66% of respondents expect shipping bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz to resolve in the coming months. - For U.S. Treasury yields, 62% of respondents project the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will hit 6%, compared to 20% who forecast it will stand at 4%. - Global fund managers’ stock allocations reached a new high in May.

May 19 – CryptoQuant data shows retail investors holding less than 1 Bitcoin (BTC) continue to see their participation in the Bitcoin market decline, nearly vanishing from on-chain active addresses. Right now, the average monthly inflow of BTC these retail investors are sending to Binance has dipped to a historic low of just 314 BTC.