Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

On March 26, Bloomberg reported that Bitcoin mining firm Mara Holdings sold 15,133 bitcoins.

**March 26: Iran Conflict Risks Push Investors to Cash, Echoing 2022 Ukraine Invasion Playbook** Investors are dumping stocks and bonds and ramping up cash holdings to hedge Iran war risks—mirroring the strategy deployed after Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion. A Bank of America fund manager survey this month showed cash allocations posted their biggest jump in six years. JPMorgan strategists emphasized this week that portfolio shifts in response to the conflict are far from over. In a report led by Nicholas Panigirtzoglou, the team noted elevated geopolitical and macro uncertainty will keep current below-historical cash levels a drag on future equities and bonds. Investors have been selling stocks, bonds, and gold simultaneously to boost cash—but cash positions remain moderate compared to when the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, per FXStreet.

On March 26, spot silver plunged 5.7% intraday, per Bitget data, and was last trading at $67.14 per ounce.

Hong Kong Police updated the public on the progress of the JPEX crypto exchange fraud case on March 26, per the Hong Kong Commercial Daily. Since September 2023, 80 people have been arrested, and assets worth around HK$228 million have been frozen. On March 26, police carried out additional raids, charging 10 individuals with money laundering and conspiracy to launder money. Hong Kong Police Commercial Crime Investigation Department Inspector Han Chenghao noted the JPEX case is Hong Kong’s largest crypto fraud in recent years by victim count and loss amount—over 2,700 victims have reported losses exceeding HK$1.6 billion. To date, no company or individual has admitted to being the actual operator, so police will conduct extensive investigations to identify the mastermind, key members, or accomplices.

On March 26th, per Bitget market data, U.S. pre-market crypto-related stocks posted broad declines. Notable drops include: - Bitmine (BMNR): 4.05% lower - Sharplink Gaming (SBET): 3.98% down - Circle (CRCL): 3.04% decrease - Bullish (BLSH): 2.97% lower - Riot Platforms (RIOT): 2.90% down - MARA Holdings (MARA): 2.78% decrease - MicroStrategy (MSTR): 2.11% lower This rewrite aligns with U.S. English brevity and clarity for financial alerts, using common phrasing like "posted broad declines" and structured bullet points for readability.

**March 26 — Christopher Hui, Hong Kong’s Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, said in response to a legislator’s question that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) are exploring plans and feasibility to upgrade digital currency wallets. The goals include raising transaction limits, expanding use cases, and improving user experience. Relevant policy and technical details still require further discussion, so no specific plan or timeline has been set, Hui noted. He also disclosed the latest figures on Hong Kong’s digital yuan (e-CNY) progress: local promotion has made breakthrough gains, with sharp rises in wallet openings and merchant acceptance. Hong Kong’s digital payment era has officially entered the fast track. (Source: Yicai)** ### Notes on U.S. language adjustments: 1. **Simplified phrasing**: Replaced "arrangement and feasibility" with "plans and feasibility" (more conversational for U.S. news); "usage limit" →