Arthur Hayes: I bet that Bitcoin will surpass $110,000 before retracing to $76,500

This week, the crypto market will focus on Federal Reserve meeting minutes, U.S. economic data, and several crypto industry events; macro conditions and on-chain dynamics may jointly influence digital asset trends. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June FOMC meeting in the early hours of July 9 (Beijing time), and markets hope to use this to gauge the future interest rate path. Additionally, the U.S. ISM Services PMI, consumer inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, and China’s June CPI data will be released sequentially. On the industry side, SpaceX will officially be added to the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7, becoming the fourth index constituent to hold Bitcoin, following Tesla, Strategy, and Mercado Libre. Data shows SpaceX currently holds approximately 18,712 BTC, and its inclusion in the index is expected to benefit from passive allocation demand from index funds. In addition, U.S. crypto miner American Bitcoin (ABTC) will resume trading after completing a 1-for-15 reverse stock split to avoid delisting by Nasdaq; Berachain will complete its PoL Next upgrade on July 7. In terms of on-chain governance, DAOs including ENS DAO, Frax DAO, Nexus Mutual DAO, and Arbitrum DAO will wrap up voting on multiple governance proposals this week. For token unlocks: Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock tokens equivalent to 0.2% of its circulating supply on July 6, worth approximately $30.39 million; RAIN will unlock ~7.64% of its circulating supply on July 11, valued at ~$787 million; PUMP will unlock ~29.12% of its circulating supply on July 12, worth ~$130 million. Beyond macro data, developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the continued weakening of the Japanese yen also merit attention. Recently, Bitcoin has shown a strong negative correlation with the USD/JPY exchange rate, with yen depreciation often accompanying Bitcoin price rallies.

Morgan Stanley strategists believe U.S. equities face headwinds in hitting new all-time highs as investors rotate out of this year’s top-performing tech stocks and into other sectors. This rotation could erode the market leadership pattern previously dominated by AI and mega-cap tech stocks. The firm’s analysis notes that most positive economic and earnings news has already been priced in, leaving index performance stagnant, and truly upside surprises will be needed to drive further gains. Markets are eager for concrete proof that massive AI capital expenditures can translate into sustained returns, rather than just growing spending figures, and this uncertainty is pushing more capital to shift from mega-cap tech to broader equities. Morgan Stanley advises investors to prioritize earnings realizability and quality, take partial profits in small-cap stocks, and expand allocations to AI beneficiaries in select sectors. Earlier research from the bank also showed that while large-cap tech posted strong Q3 results, their stock gains have lagged significantly, dragging valuations lower—a stark contrast to industrials and cyclical sectors that have rallied on rate-cut expectations, further confirming a shift in market capital flows.

The "Clean Net: Special Operation to Rectify AI Application Disorders" launched in April 2026, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) has targeted AI application irregularities including failure to fulfill mandatory large model filing obligations, insufficient AI platform security and content moderation capabilities, AI data poisoning, and inadequate implementation of synthetic content labeling. The CAC has instructed local cyberspace authorities to advance key rectification tasks in the first phase, and opened a "Reporting Zone for AI Application Disorders" to accept public reports. Thanks to joint efforts from all parties, the first phase has disposed over 14,000 AI products including illegal websites, applications, and intelligent agents, cleared more than 6 million illegal and harmful pieces of information, handled over 26,000 accounts, removed over 1,300 illegal AI goods and 9 illegal open-source datasets, with all work achieving positive progress.

According to official announcements, the 2026 trading competition "Island Project", jointly hosted by Deribit and SignalPlus, has officially launched. The event offers a maximum total prize pool of 600,000 USDC, marking the first time a private island is set as the grand prize. Multiple winning tracks are open, including daily trading, block trading, and referral rewards, allowing participants to start competing for rewards immediately. Key highlights of the competition: 1. Registration: All participants can claim a free option. 2. Balance: Users maintaining a balance of ≥0.1 USDC will enter a draw for a 600 USDC action camera. 3. Block Trading: Block trading fees are reduced by 30%–50%, and an additional draw for a 2,000 USDC luxury trip will be held post-event. 4. Trading: All daily traders win rewards, plus a draw for a 60,000 USDC private island in Finland. 5. Referral: Referring friends guarantees rewards, and an additional draw for a 30,000 USDC private island in Canada will be held post-event. The competition runs from July 6 to August 11 (UTC+8, deadline at 7:59). For registration details, please refer to the official announcement.

According to CNBC, multiple major developments have unfolded in the Russia-Ukraine conflict over the past 72 hours. U.S. President Donald Trump held separate calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukrainian drones attacked an oil depot and port facilities in Russia’s St. Petersburg, prompting Russia to launch its second large-scale airstrike on Kyiv in a week. Markets are refocusing on geopolitical risks, energy security, and European defense concerns. Zelenskyy said he discussed frontline developments with Trump and agreed to continue consultations at the upcoming NATO summit, noting “there is a real chance to end this war, and U.S. resolve is critical.” The Kremlin stated that Trump and Putin spoke for about 90 minutes, discussing an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and future prospects for U.S.-Russia cooperation. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov called the call “practical and constructive,” adding that Trump emphasized the need to end the conflict as soon as possible to unlock the potential for bilateral cooperation. Meanwhile, Ukraine has recently stepped up strikes on Russian energy facilities and military targets. Kyiv claimed it attacked a large oil terminal in St. Petersburg and the Kronstadt Naval Base, home to Russia’s Baltic Fleet, causing fires at the sites. In response, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv in the early hours of Monday local time, killing at least 11 people and severely damaging multiple residential buildings. The U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed that Russia is trying to convey to the West the narrative that it still holds the initiative on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has recently highlighted Ukraine’s progress in long-range strikes on Russian military and energy facilities, indicating that the public opinion game over the battlefield situation between the two sides continues.

DeFi yield optimization protocol Summer Finance (Summer.fi) appears to have fallen victim to a security breach, with on-chain analytics firms estimating losses of roughly $6 million. Blockchain security firm Blockaid was the first to identify the incident. Cyvers noted that the attacker exploited a flaw in the protocol's share accounting mechanism, executing the attack through price manipulation, then converted the stolen ~$6 million in assets into DAI stablecoins and transferred them to addresses under their control. CertiK’s further analysis revealed the attacker used a $65.4 million flash loan to manipulate the asset valuation logic of Summer.fi’s Lazy Summer Protocol vaults. The attacker ultimately redeemed ~$70.9 million in assets after depositing approximately $64.8 million, netting a profit of around $6 million. The vulnerability relates to the totalAssets() asset counting logic in the protocol’s Fleet Commander contract, which manages vault assets. The attacker had built up positions in specific vaults in advance, then manipulated asset calculations by donating assets to the Ark contract to carry out the arbitrage. As of press time, Summer.fi has not officially confirmed the attack, and the root cause of the vulnerability remains under investigation.