Crypto Market Fear Subsides Significantly, Today's Fear and Greed Index at 45

Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal said in a podcast this week that Bitcoin’s fair value, per his global liquidity model, should be around $140,000. However, the “1011 event” (triggered by Trump’s tariff policy) caused crypto to underperform stocks and gold, he noted. Pal outlined the “1011 event” as follows: A major macro shock spurred mass liquidation of highly leveraged positions. At the peak of cascading selloffs, Binance’s API briefly went offline, blocking professional market makers from placing orders, providing liquidity, or hedging risks. A chain reaction amplified losses, forcing top centralized exchanges (CEXs) to use their balance sheets to absorb positions and prevent a full system collapse. As a result, Pal estimates CEXs passively absorbed roughly $10 billion in assets. The market’s subsequent long-term weakness stems from these CEXs algorithmically selling their inventory during U.S. stock market open hours to offload holdings, he explained. Pal expects t

On February 1st, per Onchain Lens data, a whale deposited 1.127M USDC into Hyperliquid and subsequently opened a 10x leveraged BNB short position.

**February 1st Crypto Update** Per HTX market data: - Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000 and is currently trading at $77,011, marking a 5.32% 24-hour drop. - Ethereum dipped under $2,300, now at $2,301.07 with a 9.28% 24-hour decline.

**FTX Creditor Rep: Next Distribution Eyed for March 31; Disputed Reserve Down $2.2B** FTX creditor representative Sunil said in a Feb. 1 post on X that the exchange’s next round of fund distributions is expected on March 31. Total reconciled claims currently stand at approximately $9.6 billion, broken down as: - ~$7.8 billion for claims under $50,000; - ~$78 billion for claims over $50,000; - ~$1 billion for non-client claims. Sunil also noted the disputed reserve fund has shrunk by roughly $2.2 billion. If an additional ~$2 billion is distributed later, claims over $50,000 could receive an extra ~$1.7 billion in compensation. Overall, FTX’s creditor recovery process continues to advance, with future distribution pace tied to resolving disputed claims and asset realization progress.

Feb 1 — On-chain analytics firm Onchain Lens reports the "BTC OG Insider Whale" has re-deposited 3,000 ETH (valued at $7.05M) into Binance.

**February 1** This week, markets reacted to key macro events including the FOMC meeting and confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chair nomination. After a mid-term rally, precious metals plunged sharply—investors are watching for a potential trend reversal and whether capital will flow back into the crypto market. ### Next Week’s Key Macro Highlights Few major events/data are expected to disrupt markets, with top focus on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) January policy summary and U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP). Below is the schedule: **Monday** - U.S. January Final Global Manufacturing PMI - U.S. January ISM Manufacturing PMI - **BOJ releases summary of opinions from January monetary policy meeting** **Tuesday** - U.S. December JOLTs Job Openings - Remarks by Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President (2027 FOMC voter) - **Remarks by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman** **Wednesday** - U.S. API, EIA Crude Oil Inventory Data (as of Jan 30) - Final January Services PMI: Fran