Crypto Market Fear Subsides Significantly, Today's Fear and Greed Index at 45

BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky says the biggest risk in today’s market is not a single negative event, but investors starting to question the market logic they once firmly believed in. Krinsky points out that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen roughly 20% from its June high, entering bear market territory; South Korea’s KOSPI has dropped over 25% cumulatively, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 has also entered a technical correction, reflecting pressure on global tech stocks. He warns that U.S. stocks could repeat the sharp correction seen in summer 2024, with the S&P 500 at risk of falling below its 200-day moving average (6983 points). If that scenario unfolds, the semiconductor sector will likely continue to weaken, and large tech stocks like the "Magnificent Seven" may end their prior leading rally, dragging down overall market performance. What’s more worrying about this selloff is that it truly lacks a clear catalyst. While a host of issues can be cited—including concerns over the chip sector’s excessive first-half rally, large tech firms taking on heavy debt for massive capital expenditure plans, and persistent uncertainty in the economic backdrop under the Federal Reserve’s new policies—this helps explain the rotation underway in the broader market. However, the stock market can only tolerate so much weakness in its largest, most popular stocks (such as chip stocks), and will ultimately struggle to hold up.

Crypto KOL Ansem posted on X that he will airdrop 1 SOL to users every 5 minutes before going to bed, with participants only needing to leave their Solana wallet address in the comments to join the event. As of press time, Ansem’s eponymous meme coin ANSEM has a market cap of $176 million, down 5.5% over the past 24 hours.

According to Farside’s monitoring, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $132.3 million yesterday, marking their fourth consecutive trading day of net inflows. Specifically, IBIT recorded a net inflow of $136.5 million, while FBTC posted a net outflow of $4.2 million.

As the U.S. Senate remains deadlocked over the CLARITY Act, prediction market Polymarket has slashed the probability of the bill being passed by the end of 2026 to 32%, the lowest level since the platform launched in January this year. Data shows this probability has dropped by roughly 30 percentage points from the market’s launch, and plummeted sharply from the 82% peak hit in February this year. Market participants believe that with the Senate’s legislative schedule tightening and bipartisan support still unachieved, the likelihood of the bill passing this year continues to decline. Reports indicate that the biggest sticking point right now is that the two parties have yet to reach an agreement on ethics provisions related to conflicts of interest for government officials involving digital assets. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego previously stated clearly that he would not support the bill in Senate votes if it does not include the bipartisan-backed ethics provisions. The CLARITY Act aims to establish a regulatory framework for the U.S. digital asset market and clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Multiple industry stakeholders testified at a House of Representatives hearing that the bill would help end "regulation by enforcement" and provide long-term, stable regulatory rules for the digital asset sector. As the U.S. Congress heads into its August recess, market expectations for the bill to be enacted into law this year are continuing to cool.

According to monitoring by crypto analytics account Ai Yi, an address linked to the Ondo team transferred 26.05 million ONDO tokens to Coinbase, worth approximately $9.79 million. The address received 150 million ONDO from the Ondo team’s multi-sig address on June 23, held the tokens for nearly a month, and transferred a portion to Coinbase 11 hours ago. The operation follows a similar pattern to prior moves: team address transfer → address holding → transfer to exchange platform, though the specific purpose of this action remains unclear.

Anthropic announced that Claude Fable 5 will be officially included in its Max and Team Premium plans starting July 20. Users can allocate up to 50% of their plan credits to Fable 5, with no temporary deadline imposed. Pro and Team Standard users will still need to access Fable 5 on a pay-as-you-go basis, and Anthropic will grant these users a one-time $100 credit. When Fable 5 launched, Anthropic only committed to offering free access to the model until June 22. The model was later suspended due to U.S. export controls; after resuming on July 1, the plan access window was extended from July 7 to July 12, then to July 19. Anthropic has consistently stated that demand is unpredictable, requiring gradual increases in computing power. This timing is hard not to link to Kimi K3, which has recently matched or surpassed Fable 5 in multiple programming and agent benchmarks, with some tasks even outperforming it. Competitive pressure may have accelerated Anthropic’s decision, though no direct evidence exists to confirm this.