Wall Street is collectively bearish on the euro, with major banks including JPMorgan Chase forecasting the common currency will drop more than 3% over the next year.
Multiple major Wall Street banks have sharply cut their EUR/USD forecasts. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and BNY Mellon all project the euro will fall more than 3% to around 1.10 over the next year. The single currency has hit a one-year low this month, a stark contrast to its five-year high above 1.20 reached earlier this year. Policy divergence is the core driving factor. New Federal Reserve Chair Waller has signaled a hawkish stance on fighting inflation, leading markets to reprice in rate hikes this year; ECB President Christine Lagarde, meanwhile, has said no aggressive policy response is needed to the Middle East conflict, keeping the central bank’s path relatively dovish. Escalating tensions with Iran have pushed up oil prices and boosted demand for the U.S. dollar, further eroding the euro’s support. Options market signals have also weakened, with the one-year risk reversal indicator falling to its most bearish level since March 2025. Societe Generale’s chief FX strategist bluntly noted that “the euro’s rally is essentially over,” and compared the current energy shock to the severe blow Europe’s economy suffered after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Bank of America, while cutting its year-end forecast from 1.20 to 1.15, still maintains a “neutral” view, making it one of the few relatively dovish voices.
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The Ansem wallet holds 604 million ANSEM tokens, with a market capitalization exceeding $71 million.
According to Lookonchain's monitoring, as ANSEM's price continues to climb, the 604 million ANSEM tokens held in the wallet of prominent crypto KOL Ansem (@blknoiz06) are now valued at over $71 million.
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While Middle East tensions remain volatile, market reactions have grown increasingly muted, with investors shifting their focus to tech stocks.
The U.S. carried out fresh strikes on Iranian military targets over the weekend, while Iran attacked vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and launched missiles and drones toward Kuwait and Bahrain, temporarily halting U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks. However, the two sides later agreed to resume a cessation of hostilities and advance technical negotiations related to the ceasefire memorandum (MOU). Affected by the tensions, international oil prices edged higher, with Brent crude and WTI crude rising to around $72.31 and $69.82 respectively. Global financial markets overall showed limited reaction, as investors shifted their focus to the recovery of the tech sector. Demand for AI computing power has kept driving a persistent shortage of storage chips. Large tech firms including Apple and Microsoft can offset costs via price hikes, while some small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face greater pressure. Meanwhile, SpaceX is poised to become one of the fastest companies in history to be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index.
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Samsung and SK Group plan to invest $1.3 trillion over the next decade to bet on AI and semiconductors, with both companies’ stocks suffering sharp declines at the opening bell.
South Korean media has disclosed that Samsung Group and SK Group are developing a 10-year capital expenditure plan totaling around 2,000 trillion won (approximately $1.3 trillion), which is included in President Lee Jae-myung’s "Three Leap Projects" industrial strategic framework. The two conglomerates are expected to formally announce the plan to the presidential office on Monday afternoon.
Funds will be focused on semiconductor capacity expansion, AI data centers and physical AI sectors. Each group plans to build 4 to 5 wafer fabs in Gwangju, and expand packaging and NAND capacities in North and South Chungcheong Provinces.
However, the massive investment plan failed to boost market confidence. On Monday, South Korea’s KOSPI index extended its decline to 3%, Samsung Electronics dropped 5%, SK Hynix fell 4.5%, and KOSDAQ futures triggered a circuit breaker after surging 6%.
Analysts believe investors are skeptical about whether AI-related capital expenditure will deliver actual returns. A research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) also noted that onshore leverage in South Korea’s stock market has reached a historical high, with recent margin call pressures rising, and market volatility risks cannot be ignored.
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A crypto whale went long 1x on crude oil worth $2.17 million, having previously accumulated losses exceeding $4 million.
According to OnchainLens monitoring, a crypto whale has deposited $2 million in USDC to HyperLiquid, opening 31,255 long positions in CL (crude oil) with 1x leverage, with the position valued at $2.17 million. Notably, this address has previously accumulated losses exceeding $4.06 million.
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Survey: 29 trillion in sovereign funds shifting to energy and physical assets, 60% of central banks worry U.S. Treasuries are eroding the U.S. dollar’s status.
Invesco’s latest survey shows that sovereign investors—covering 90 sovereign wealth funds and 54 central banks with a combined $29 trillion in assets under management—are systematically restructuring their investment portfolios, shifting focus to energy and physical assets. Around 80% of surveyed institutions view energy security and energy transition infrastructure as the top priorities for enhancing portfolio resilience, with infrastructure asset allocations rising to 9%. The high energy demand of AI has further boosted the appeal of energy-related assets. On the U.S. dollar credit crisis front, 61% of surveyed central banks believe the U.S. debt level is eroding the dollar’s long-term reserve status, a sharp jump from 20% in 2024; 29% expect the dollar’s reserve currency status to weaken within five years, up from 12% in 2022. Some institutions have begun reducing reliance on U.S. custodians and clearing systems: one European central bank has completed switching its U.S.-affiliated custodian, while a Latin American central bank admitted it is establishing non-U.S. custodian relationships for "extreme scenarios". Additionally, around one-third of surveyed institutions plan to increase their gold reserves. Invesco’s Head of Research noted, “Resilience is evolving from a bonus to a necessity.”
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