Greeks.live: Bitcoin and Ethereum Sharp Downtrend Continues, Put Options Hold Absolute Dominance
On Feb 6, analytics platform Greeks.live shared key crypto options expiration data in a social media post:
- 33,000 BTC options expiring; put-call ratio (PCR) 0.54; max pain $80,000; nominal value $2.1B
- 219,000 ETH options expiring; PCR 0.91; max pain $2,400; nominal value $420M
Crypto markets plunged sharply that day: BTC briefly fell below $60k, while ETH dropped under $1,750. Roughly 10% of total options open interest expired, totaling nearly $26B. BTC and ETH prices extended losses with a strong downtrend, as put options dominated trading. The crypto fear gauge hit 5% at one point, sparking fresh market panic.
Implied volatility (IV) for both assets surged to over 1-year highs:
- BTC’s main-term IV topped 60%, with short-term at-the-money (ATM) contracts exceeding 110%
- ETH’s main-term IV stood at 80%, with short-term ATM contracts above 120%
This week, put options held a large share of trading volume. Market makers absorbed a wave of bearish demand, and trading
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Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin Falling to $55,000 This Year" Rises to 74%
On February 6, probabilities on Polymarket for Bitcoin’s price moves this year stand at:
- 74% for dropping to $55,000
- 61% for falling to $50,000
- 43% for rising to $100,000
- 34% for hitting $110,000
This rewrite uses concise, direct language typical of U.S. financial quick updates: it omits redundant phrasing (e.g., "the probability of the prediction"), uses action verbs ("dropping/falling/hitting") for clarity, and structures data in scannable bullet points—common in American financial media. Dates follow U.S. formatting (month-day), and "stand at" is a natural phrase for current market metrics.
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Benson Sun: Bitcoin Plunges to Rare -5.65σ, Only Seen 4 Times in History
**Crypto Influencer & Ex-FTX Partner: Bitcoin’s -5.65σ Drop Nears “Industrial-Level Impossible”**
On February 6, Benson Sun—crypto KOL and former FTX Community Partner—posted that Bitcoin (BTC) saw an extreme downswing this morning. Calculated over a 200-day lookback period, BTC’s decline hit **-5.65 standard deviations (σ)**.
In manufacturing, the Six Sigma standard allows just 3.4 defects per million occurrences, defined as “almost impossible” in human industrial civilization. Yesterday’s BTC volatility was only 0.35σ away from this “industrial-level impossibility.” A -5.65σ event has a theoretical normal distribution probability of roughly 1 in 1 billion.
While financial markets have “fat tails” (extreme events more likely than normal distribution predicts), BTC has only seen this level of volatility **4 times** since its trading launch in July 2010—accounting for ~0.07% of all trading days. Even during the deep bear markets of 2018 and 2022, no such rapid decline occurred
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Trend Research has once again transferred 20,000 ETH to Binance, with the latest liquidation range being $1509 to $1800.
On February 6, per on-chain analyst Ai Auntie (@ai_9684xtpa), Trend Research continued transferring 20,000 ETH to Binance.
Over the past 6 hours, the firm has allegedly offloaded 47,000 ETH to avoid liquidation—totaling $89.29 million—with the latest liquidation threshold ranging from $1,509 to $1,800.
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A whale once went long on ASTER at an average price of $1.37, now experiencing nearly 9x unrealized loss on the position.
On February 6, HyperInsight monitoring data reveals that a whale address (0xa9c...) on Hyperliquid has held a long position in ASTER that’s been heavily underwater for nearly four months.
The position was opened on October 15 last year at an average price of approximately $1.37. It currently has an unrealized loss of around $2.14 million—equivalent to an 866% loss, or nearly 9x the initial principal. The current position size is about $1.23 million, with a liquidation price of $0.31.
Additionally, the address has recently been actively trading xyz:SILVER (a synthetic silver asset) and xyz:XYZ100 (a synthetic Nasdaq 100 index asset), chasing price swings. Its most recent close was a SILVER long position from seven days ago: the position size once peaked at $7.86 million, and it exited with a loss of roughly $1.67 million. After multiple losses, the address’s account balance has dwindled to approximately $0.54 million.
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