Replaying 23,316 distinct on-chain addresses, PolyBeats identified multiple "Insider Trading" accounts
On February 14, PolyBeats—Rhythm BlockBeats’ subsidiary focused on prediction market research—officially released its *Russia-Ukraine War Prediction Market Analysis Report*.
The report draws on 79 “Russia-Ukraine Occupation” series events from the Polymarket platform, analyzing over 23,316 independent on-chain addresses and 3.09 million transaction records. Using a dual model combining behavioral concentration and capital concentration screening, the team identified suspicious accounts with three key traits: highly concentrated transactions, abnormally stable win rates (80%–93%), and profitability that deviates sharply from typical retail investor patterns.
Today’s prediction markets are no longer just betting tools—they’re a cutting-edge bridge linking blockchain data to news discovery. This report aims to reveal how prediction markets capture real geopolitical signals in advance via on-chain abnormal trading activity. PolyBeats has applied this methodology to real-time monitori
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An address entered a long position 10 hours ago with an average price of $2055 for 2188 ETH, with a win rate of only 12.5% over the past six months.
February 14th
On-chain data analyst @ai_9684xtpa reports that the wallet address starting with 0x806 added 2188.12 ETH (worth $4.497 million) to its position 10 hours ago as ETH rebounded—at an average cost of $2055.36 per ETH.
Notably, the address has made 8 swing trades over the past six months, racking up cumulative losses of $1.261 million with a win rate of just 12.5%. However, it scored two successful “ambush trades” on ETH between April and August last year: buying at $1548.24, selling at $2371.98; then buying at $2406.75 and selling at $4300.36, netting $6.399 million in total profits.
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A certain whale address has sold 2503 PAXG in the past 3 weeks
Per Onchain Lens Monitoring data, as of February 14th, the whale address "samurai.eth" sold 601 PAXG in the past 24 hours, receiving 3 million USDT and 2.28 ETH (worth ~$4,680).
Over the past three weeks, the address has offloaded a total of 2,503 PAXG, with an aggregate value of ~$12.89 million and an average selling price of $5,150 per token.
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Tether Invests in Hyperliquid Mobile Entry Dreamcash Parent Company
February 14 — Stablecoin giant Tether has invested in Dreamcash, the parent company of Hyperliquid’s mobile entry point.
The move coincides with the launch of the first batch of USDT-collateralized real-world asset (RWA) perpetual contract markets on the popular DEX Hyperliquid, per a Friday announcement. The markets rolled out in partnership with Selini Capital, Dreamcash, and Tether, and include:
? Stock indices like the S&P 500
? Commodities including gold and silver
? Individual stocks such as Tesla, NVIDIA, Google, Amazon, Meta, Robinhood, Intel, and Microsoft
Tether’s investment will fund Dreamcash’s CASH market’s $200,000 weekly incentive program, where traders earn rewards based on their “share of total USDT trading volume.” Dreamcash did not disclose the specific size of Tether’s investment.
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X Product Owner: Planning to further combat spam and will conduct detection, proposing to delay the bot integration.
On February 14, Nikita Bier—X Product Lead and Solana Advisor—announced that X will roll out additional mechanisms to detect automated behavior and spam. The platform will continue strengthening related measures going forward.
If the system detects an account has not been interacted with manually, the account and its associated accounts may be suspended. This restriction could be triggered even if the account is only used for technical testing or experimentation.
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Institution: Bitcoin Still Faces Further Downside Risk, Deep Bear Market Price Could See Another 'Halving'
February 14th — A strategist at Ned Davis Research told clients this month that Bitcoin still faces further downside risk, despite sharp sell-offs in recent months.
Ned Davis Research Chief Global Strategist Pat Tschosik and analyst Philippe Mouls noted that based on an analysis of Bitcoin’s past downtrend cycles, if the current bear market develops into a full-fledged “crypto winter,” the peak-to-trough decline could reach 70%-75%, pushing Bitcoin’s price as low as $31,000.
Bitcoin has already fallen 44% from its October 2023 peak. A drop to $31,000 would mark a further 55% decline from current levels.
Tschosik and Mouls added that historical data dating back to 2011 shows previous Bitcoin bear markets averaged an 84% decline over 225 days. However, only 129 days have passed since Bitcoin peaked in early October last year.
That said, the two analysts stressed a “crypto winter” is not inevitable. Bitcoin now has more institutional buyers than in prior cycles, which could le
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