Analysis: New BTC buyers are nearing break-even, while holders who have held their coins for 3 to 6 months still face significant loss pressure.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a recent post that the holding status of new BTC buyers is improving. Investors holding BTC for 0 to 3 months are nearly at break-even, while those holding BTC for 3 to 6 months still face deep unrealized losses, with current market pressure concentrated on the latter group. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator for the 0-3 month BTC holding cohort has rebounded to -0.02, close to the break-even level, and has improved significantly from -0.13 since June. In contrast, the NUPL for the 3-6 month holding cohort remains at -0.14, indicating their average cost basis is still notably higher than the current BTC price. The Realized Cap Drawdown for the 3-6 month holding cohort has also continued to deteriorate, hitting -69.6%—the lowest level in the past 90 days—while the figure for the 0-3 month group is around -64%. This means that although pressure on the most recent buyers is easing, investors who entered earlier still face large unrealized losses. Adler added that the near break-even of the 0-3 month holding group is a positive signal for market improvement, but broader recovery will require the NUPL of the 3-6 month cohort to return above zero, along with a halt in the expansion of their Realized Cap Drawdown and the start of sustained recovery. Currently, the main pressure among "young coins" has shifted from the latest buyers to the 3-6 month holding group.