Hassett: Excluding government employment and World Cup-related factors, 100,000 new jobs were added.

US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation comes in at 3.63%, versus the forecast of 3.71% and prior reading of 3.67%.

UBS Chief Investment Officer Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and her team stated: “This round of gold rally is underpinned by fundamentals. We expect gold prices to approach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027.” Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran in late February, gold prices came under pressure and dipped temporarily. UBS strategists noted that near-term risks persist: if oil prices rise, or if the market prices in a more hawkish Federal Reserve monetary policy and higher bond attractiveness, gold prices will face headwinds. However, the bank remains optimistic about gold’s medium- to long-term outlook. Hoffmann-Burchardi added that her team anticipates inflation will gradually ease, the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady this year, and will restart its rate-cut cycle in 2027. “Rising expectations of lower policy rates will likely push down real yields, weigh on the U.S. dollar, and in turn boost gold investment demand, creating a more favorable market environment for gold.”

Prediction market platform Kalshi has announced the launch of an AI tool called Blanket, designed to help small businesses hedge operational risks—including those related to weather, energy prices, tariffs, and elections—using event contracts. Developed by independent fintech entrepreneur Lauris Zminsky, Blanket operates on Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated prediction market but is not an in-house product of Kalshi. The tool does not directly execute trades or process funds; instead, it leverages AI to analyze the risks faced by businesses and recommend Kalshi event contracts suitable for hedging.

Glassnode’s market analysis notes that sentiment in the Bitcoin options market is improving, with short-term downside skew declining sharply. The 1-month 25 Delta Skew has dropped to around 7%, signaling recent panic has eased. However, longer-term skew remains at roughly 10%–12%, pointing to ongoing demand for downside protection. Currently, BTC call options hold an open interest of approximately $15 billion, exceeding put options’ roughly $10 billion. Recent capital inflows are concentrated in the $61,000–$67,000 range, with notable buying activity for $65,000 call options. Glassnode concludes the market is shifting toward more bullish positions but has not abandoned risk hedging.

BlackRock has seen 4 consecutive trading days of $BTC net inflows, totaling 9,269 $BTC ($604M).

Bullish Head of Clearing and Group Risk Randi Abernethy stated that the U.S. Senate’s failure to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) does not mean the digital asset market has stopped developing; instead, it highlights the necessity of establishing a federal regulatory framework. Abernethy pointed out that during the Senate’s deliberation of the CLARITY Act, traditional U.S. financial institutions have continued to accelerate their entry into the on-chain market. JPMorgan Chase has explored tokenized ETF holdings through a production pilot with the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), and more than 50 institutions—including BlackRock and Goldman Sachs—have also participated in building infrastructure for tokenized stocks and Treasuries. Current regulatory discussions are no longer just about the “crypto industry issue” but concern the future infrastructure of the entire financial system. Citing the 2008 financial crisis as an example, Abernethy noted that financial risks spread along shared infrastructure, meaning even institutions not directly involved in related assets could be impacted. Today, the stablecoin market has exceeded $100 billion, with a large amount of stablecoin reserves invested in U.S. Treasuries. A crisis involving major stablecoins could affect liquidity in traditional financial markets. She added that supporters of the CLARITY Act argue the bill would establish a unified regulatory framework for the digital asset market, including core investor protection mechanisms such as customer asset segregation, conflict of interest management, capital requirements, and disclosure rules. (CoinDesk)