Analysis: Failure of the CLARITY Act Could Trigger a New Round of Declines in the Crypto Market

According to monitoring by AI Yi, a mysterious crypto whale has been steadily accumulating crypto assets recently, having bought more than $220 million worth of ETH and WBTC since July. On-chain analyst AI Yi detected that this address withdrew 200 BTC from Binance four hours ago. As of now, the whale has withdrawn a total of 74,265 ETH and 1,400 WBTC from exchanges, with average costs of approximately $1,770 and $63,887 respectively. The position currently has an overall unrealized profit of around $3.8 million, with the ETH holding in profit while the WBTC holding remains in unrealized loss.

Per EmberCN’s monitoring, crypto treasury firms took divergent moves last week: Bitcoin-focused treasury firm MicroStrategy sold BTC again for the first time in a month, while Ethereum-focused treasury firm Bitmine continued adding to its ETH holdings. Data shows MicroStrategy sold 1,638 BTC last week at an average price of ~$63,957 per coin, totaling ~$105 million. The sale price was $11,462 lower than its average cost basis, resulting in an actual loss of ~$18.77 million. As of now, MicroStrategy holds 842,138 BTC, with an average cost basis of $75,419 per coin, translating to an unrealized paper loss of ~$10.829 billion, or a 17% loss. Meanwhile, Bitmine purchased 10,399 ETH last week at an average price of ~$1,909 per coin, investing ~$19.85 million. The firm currently holds 5,797,813 ETH, with a total value of ~$10.674 billion, an average cost basis of $3,371 per coin, an unrealized paper loss of ~$8.871 billion, or a 45.4% loss. According to statistics, Bitmine has maintained a consecutive weekly ETH purchase streak since launching its Ethereum treasury strategy.

As market focus shifts to the spate of earnings releases this week, U.S. stock index futures opened higher on the first trading day of the month. Additionally, Monday’s decline in oil prices also lifted market sentiment. Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James, said: “Earnings will remain the market’s top priority; roughly 15% of S&P 500 components by market capitalization are set to report their earnings.” He noted that the energy, healthcare, utilities, and industrial sectors are worth watching, as they “have benefited from recent market rotation.” He added that earnings from these sectors “will help determine whether this relative strength is sustainable from a fundamental perspective.” (Jinshi)

Former Federal Reserve economist and creator of the Sahm Rule, Claudia Sahm, stated that if the Federal Reserve continues to overlook grassroots economic signals, it may misjudge economic conditions due to distorted macroeconomic data. Sahm pointed out that the so-called "resilience" in current U.S. consumption data does not stem from growth in household wealth, but rather from families taking on more debt and lowering consumption standards to make ends meet. The Fed’s latest Beige Book shows that nearly half of the regional Federal Reserve banks have observed consumers covering daily expenses via credit cards, small loans, and other means. Meanwhile, grassroots consumption pressure is building: consumers in some regions are cutting back on high-priced food due to elevated prices, and demand for food assistance from charities has even exceeded levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. In the labor market, Sahm noted a gap between the official low unemployment rate and workers’ actual experiences. Fed interviews show that some workers describe the current job market as "survival-oriented" rather than stable. Due to concerns over economic uncertainty, workers are less willing to switch jobs, choosing to stay in their roles even amid stagnant wages. Sahm warned that while grassroots economic pressure is intensifying, some companies are proactively raising wages amid workers’ rising cost of living, which could reignite inflation risks. She argued that as a data-driven institution, the Fed should not rely solely on macro statistical data, but also needs to focus on ordinary households’ real perceptions of prices and employment; otherwise, it may miss important signals of economic changes.

Deutsche Bank has raised its earnings forecast for the S&P 500, projecting that the index’s earnings per share (EPS) will reach $358 in 2026, up from its prior estimate of $342. For 2027, the EPS forecast has been lifted to $420 from $390. The German lender said the upward revision is primarily based on strong Q2 corporate earnings results. A record 87% of S&P 500 constituent companies have exceeded market expectations so far, with Q2 corporate profits expected to rise 33% year-over-year. Deutsche Bank noted that earnings growth is spreading from large tech firms to a broader range of industries, while corporate margins have hit record highs and sales growth remains robust, indicating the resilience of U.S. corporate profitability.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: BMNR) announced today that as of 4:00 PM ET on August 2, 2026, the total value of its cryptocurrencies, cash, tradable securities, and "Moonshots" stood at $11.3 billion. Its ETH holdings amount to 5,797,813 tokens (valued at $1,880 per ETH based on Coinbase pricing), accounting for approximately 4.8% of ETH’s total circulating supply of 120.7 million tokens. The company also holds 209 BTC, equity stakes in Beast Industries worth $180 million and Eightco Holdings (NASDAQ: ORBS) worth $61 million, with cash and tradable securities totaling $173 million. Key moves last week: Bitmine added 10,399 ETH to its holdings over the past week, extending its consecutive weekly ETH purchase streak since launching its ETH treasury strategy on June 30, 2025. During the same period, the company repurchased 4.5 million common shares, bringing total repurchases to over 16.1 million shares under the previously approved $4 billion share repurchase program. Currently, Bitmine has staked 4,917,189 ETH (valued at approximately $9.2 billion), making it one of the largest institutional holders of staked ETH globally, with a 7-day annualized staking yield of around 2.67%.