Polymarket to Upgrade Crypto Prediction Market Settlement Rules: Ditches Single-Price Snapshots for Time-Weighted Average Prices

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), US stocks staged a broad-based rally, with the semiconductor storage sector leading gains. The Nasdaq rose over 2%, the Dow added 0.48%, and the S&P 500 gained more than 1%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped over 6%, on track for its largest single-day gain in a month. All major storage stocks surged over 10%: Micron Technology climbed 10.44%, SK Hynix rose 10.02%, SanDisk advanced 17.24%, Western Digital gained 14.33%, Seagate Technology jumped 16.38%, and Kioxia ADR rose 10.95%. Microsoft’s rally extended to over 15%, poised for its biggest single-day gain since March 2020. After Wednesday’s US market close, Microsoft released its Q4 FY2026 financial results: revenue reached $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year. Growth for Azure and other cloud services accelerated to 43% from 40% in the previous quarter. ARM’s gains once widened to 19%, after it had fallen nearly 8% in pre-market trading earlier, marking its largest single-day jump since March 25. The company’s Q1 FY2027 revenue totaled $1.289 billion, up 22% year-over-year, setting a new first-quarter record.

According to BIT (bit.com) market data, Microsoft’s gains widened to over 15% after the U.S. stock market opened, putting it on track for its largest single-day gain since March 2020. The company released its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results after U.S. markets closed Wednesday, reporting revenue of $90 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase. Growth for Azure and other cloud services rose to 43% from 40% in the prior quarter. CEO Satya Nadella said Azure’s full fiscal year revenue exceeded $100 billion, growing 41%—marking the first time the business has crossed the $100 billion threshold.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), the three major U.S. stock indexes advanced at the open of U.S. trading: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 gained 1%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.6%. Microsoft jumped roughly 12% after releasing its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results in Wednesday’s post-market session, reporting revenue of $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year. The storage sector saw sharp gains, with SanDisk (SNDK.O) rising around 11% and SK Hynix (SKHY.O) climbing approximately 7%.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), most US-listed crypto-related stocks rose at the opening of the US stock session, with the following performance: Strategy (MSTR) up 1.25%; Coinbase (COIN) gained 0.60%; Circle (CRCL) down 0.15%; BitMine Immersion (BMNR) rose 1.66%; SharpLink Gaming (SBET) jumped 3.34%.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), ARM’s gains expanded to 19% at one point after the U.S. stock market opened, following a nearly 8% drop in pre-market trading earlier. This marks its largest single-day gain since March 25.

The U.S. June PCE Price Index, released today, fell 0.1% month-over-month—the first monthly decline since the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Its year-over-year growth slowed to 3.7% from a three-year high of 4.1% in May. Core PCE rose just 0.1% month-over-month, with its year-over-year rate dropping to 3.3% from 3.4%, though it remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the sixth consecutive year. The cooling inflation was largely driven by falling oil prices following the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Consumer spending remained robust: inflation-adjusted consumer spending in June rose 0.4% month-over-month, matching the fastest pace since July 2025. The second quarter’s annualized GDP growth slowed to 1.5% from 2.1% in the first quarter, but domestic private final sales (excluding net exports, inventories, and government spending) jumped 3.9%—more than doubling the first-quarter figure and hitting its highest level since early 2023. Consumer spending, which makes up roughly two-thirds of the economy, surged from 0.5% to 3.2%. Low unemployment, tax cuts, and the AI investment boom have jointly supported household consumption and corporate capital expenditure. However, energy prices remain a key risk for the second half of the year: the average regular gasoline price in Q2 hit $4.22 per gallon, far above the sub-$3 level before the conflict, and oil prices have risen again this month. Consumer goods firms including Procter & Gamble have noted consumers are more price-sensitive. The day before the GDP report’s release, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. Three regional Fed presidents dissented, pushing for a 25-basis-point rate hike. Waller said, “The economy is showing impressive resilience.” The expanding camp of rate-hike advocates underscores growing internal divisions within the Fed.