Citi warns of rising Fed rate hike risks: Small-cap stocks could be the next sell-off target.
1 hours ago
Citi’s strategy team warned that as expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes rise, small-cap stocks could become the hardest-hit area during market corrections. With the Fed’s new chair Kevin Warsh adopting a hawkish policy stance, the market is shifting from relying on forward guidance to focusing on economic data. Current market expectations for a Fed rate hike this week have risen to over 30%, said Stuart Kaiser, Citi’s head of U.S. equity trading strategy. Even if rates are held steady this week, the probability of a rate hike in September remains as high as 70%. Citi advised investors to hedge risks by purchasing put options on the Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM). Citi noted that small-cap stocks are more sensitive to interest rates, economic growth and credit conditions, so the Russell 2000 Index could face greater pressure than large-cap tech stocks if the Fed sends hawkish signals. Meanwhile, data from Goldman Sachs shows that hedge funds are increasing their positions in the healthcare sector, with related funds performing strongly recently. Between August 2025 and April 2026, healthcare-focused hedge funds posted an average return of nearly 40%, significantly outperforming general equity funds. AI-driven new drug development, rising M&A activity in healthcare, and improved FDA approval efficiency are cited as key drivers of the capital inflow. This week, the market remains focused on the Fed’s policy meeting and earnings reports from large tech companies. Citi pointed out that the market currently has extremely high performance expectations, and even if corporate earnings exceed forecasts, individual stocks may still decline due to buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news dynamics.
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