Galaxy Research Director: Probability of CLARITY Act being passed within the year drops to 30%

Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research Alex Thorn has published a note revising the probability of the CLARITY Act being enacted into law by 2026 from the prior 50% to 30%. Thorn highlighted that while the full text of the bill was officially released this Wednesday—totaling 616 pages and 104 provisions—there remains a substantial gap in the required votes. On the Republican side, Senators Hawley and Paul are expected to vote against the legislation, and McConnell has not cast a vote since his June hospitalization, leaving a reliable vote count of roughly 50, well short of the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster. For Democrats, the seven senators who previously took part in negotiations jointly stated the current text is "insufficient," specifically opposing two key elements: the ethics provision granting sole enforcement authority to the Department of Justice, and the 2029 sunset clause. Senator Elizabeth Warren went further, declaring the bill "should be rejected outright." On the legislative timeline, Thorn argues the actual deadline for advancing the bill is July 30 (Wednesday), not the Senate’s officially announced recess date of August 7, as the procedural process requires several additional days. He added that if the bill fails to pass the Senate before recess, its chances of being enacted in 2026 will drop sharply.