TD Securities: Shifts Fed Rate Cut Expectation from March to June, Still Expects Three Rate Cuts This Year
**TD Securities Delays Fed Rate Cut Start to June, Still Expects 75bps of Cuts This Year**
February 12 – TD Securities has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut of 202X, pushing the timing from March to June, while maintaining its call for a total of 75 basis points (bps) of policy easing this year to lower the target rate to 3%.
The firm’s team, led by Chief U.S. Macro Strategist Oscar Munoz, projects 25bps cuts at each of the Fed’s June, September, and December meetings.
Crucially, the expected policy easing is not driven by a deteriorating economic outlook, but by inflation gradually moving toward the Fed’s target—allowing monetary policy to “normalize.” Improved employment prospects will also let the Fed refocus on its inflation mandate, the team noted.
TD Securities also forecasts U.S. bond yields will keep falling this year, with the 10-year Treasury yield seen ending 202X at 3.75% (up from its prior forecast of 3.5%).
Source: FXStr
4 hours ago
Binance Response: Coinglass displays abnormal data on fund outflows due to issues with third-party data, expected to recover within 24 to 48 hours
On February 12, Binance released a statement saying: “Coinglass’s display of Binance outflow data is glitched due to issues with the third-party platform data it uses—similar to past instances where DefiLlama showed abnormal data. We expect its data to be restored within 24 to 48 hours.”
Regular withdrawal tests across all trading platforms are a proactive, healthy practice. When doing these tests, always double-check addresses—only initiate a withdrawal after verifying they’re correct. All platforms should set up an annual “Withdrawal Day” to confirm their assets are legitimate.
4 hours ago
Binance Response: "Coinglass Displays Binance's 24hr Withdrawal of $3.76B" is a Third-Party Data Issue, Platform Fund Flows Are Normal
February 12: Binance employee sisi addressed reports that Coinglass data showed a $3.76 billion 24-hour outflow from Binance, stating: "We spotted abnormal data on Coinglass and immediately contacted them. They confirmed an issue with the third-party data they rely on, which will take roughly 24-48 hours to fix."
As of now, Binance’s fund inflows and outflows are normal, with no unusual large outflows. This statement clarifies the situation.
4 hours ago
Analyst: Strong U.S. Employment Shows Economic Resilience, But Fed Faces High Uncertainty
February 12 – Vontobel analyst Andrew Jackson noted U.S. job growth in January topped expectations, again underscoring the economy’s resilience. However, the data failed to provide policymakers with much clearer guidance. While the current economic landscape is more predictable than early last year, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve remains higher than that of many other central banks.
For fixed income investors, the key takeaway is: “Credit fundamentals remain sound, macroeconomic conditions are still favorable, and the U.S. economy has shown notable resilience.” Concerns over elevated corporate bond valuations are also less prominent now than a year ago. “I think credit spreads could hold steady at current levels or even narrow modestly further,” Jackson said (per FX Street).
4 hours ago
Ethereum Market Cap Drops to 86th Among Global Mainstream Assets
On February 12, per 8Market data, Ethereum fell below $2,000, pushing its market capitalization to $231.97 billion—below PepsiCo’s $232.18 billion market cap—and landing it 86th among global mainstream assets.
4 hours ago
If Bitcoin drops below $65,000, the mainstream CEX long liquidation volume will reach 675 million.
On February 12, per Coinglass data, if Bitcoin drops below $65,000, cumulative long liquidation strength across major centralized exchanges (CEXs) will hit $675 million.
Conversely, if Bitcoin rises above $69,000, cumulative short liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $905 million.
BlockBeats Note: Liquidation charts do not show the exact number of contracts to be liquidated or the exact value of liquidated contracts. The bars on these charts represent the relative importance of each liquidation cluster compared to adjacent clusters—i.e., "strength."
As such, liquidation charts indicate how significantly the underlying asset’s price will react when it hits a certain level. A taller "liquidation bar" means the price will see a more intense reaction from a liquidity cascade once it reaches that threshold.
4 hours ago
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