Polymarket flagged roughly $200 million worth of trades as potential insider trading in the first half of the year.
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According to Bloomberg, as prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi expand, issues of betting using non-public information or informational advantages are coming under increased scrutiny. Bloomberg Businessweek analyzed roughly 34,000 potential insider trades flagged by Polysights between August 2025 and June 2026. The flagged transactions are characterized by new accounts, low-probability entries, large bets, or high trade concentration, though this does not confirm rule violations by traders. Data shows that from January 1 to June 30 this year, the total value of suspicious transactions flagged on Polymarket reached around $200 million, with abnormal trading volumes rising sharply driven by geopolitical and war-related markets. Profits from potential insider trading are highly concentrated: the top 1% of profit-generating accounts earned more than half of all gains, and 57% of related wallets were created less than 24 hours before the trades. Some traders are using multiple linked wallets and splitting orders to reduce detection risk. For example, 38 linked addresses placed bets on 90 geopolitical markets related to Iran and Venezuela, boasting a 98% win rate, totaling $1.6 million in profits, and withdrawing funds via the same Coinbase deposit address. Polymarket states it monitors insider trading and other illegal activities, and has so far turned over nearly 100 wallets to law enforcement agencies. Kalshi has also strengthened reviews of identity and employment information, and restricted individuals who may influence outcomes such as political candidates and athletes from participating in related markets.
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