Prediction markets now account for 27% of total World Cup sports betting transactions, marking the first time traditional betting giants have seen their market share significantly eroded.

According to Bloomberg, during this unprecedentedly popular World Cup, trading volume on prediction markets surged sharply, growing far faster than traditional sports betting platforms, further highlighting the competitive threat that prediction market platforms like Kalshi pose to the sports betting industry. As a leading player in the space, Kalshi broke its own trading records multiple times during the World Cup. Its peak trading volume not only doubled the mark set in the week before the World Cup and during the New York Knicks’ playoffs, but also reached nearly 10 times its average trading level for most of early this year. Research firm H2 Gambling Capital estimated, based on public data from the first month of the World Cup, that prediction market trading volume now accounts for roughly 27% of total U.S. legal sports betting volume, up sharply from 9% at the start of the year. While this comparison is not entirely precise—due to differing trading metrics used by prediction markets and traditional bookmakers, and as bookmakers have not yet released their latest internal data—it still reflects that prediction markets are rapidly eroding market share from traditional sports betting. Another clear sign of the shifting competitive landscape is that, per Apptopia data, Kalshi’s mobile app daily active users (DAU) surpassed those of the two largest U.S. online sports betting platforms, DraftKings and FanDuel, during the World Cup, demonstrating that prediction market platforms are rising rapidly and posing direct competition to traditional sports betting giants in user scale.