Goldman Sachs: Deleveraging in tech stocks may be nearing an end, but there is a lack of near-term catalysts for a reversal.
6 hours ago
Goldman Sachs partner and head of EMEA hedge fund business Mark Wilson said the current momentum trading sell-off has lasted 17 trading days. The U.S. stock market’s momentum factor has pulled back 28% from its peak, while the momentum factor for technology, media and telecom (TMT) has dropped 40% — the fastest and deepest pullback on record. Sub-sector-wise, the KOSPI has fallen 27% from its high, U.S. AI-benefiting stocks have pulled back around 25%, global memory chip stocks are down 36%, and European semiconductors have dropped 23%. Goldman Sachs data shows that the volatility of the high-beta momentum portfolio is roughly 10 times that of the S&P 500 index, while the average implied volatility of individual stocks is 2.8 times that of the index. Wilson believes the current sell-off is mainly driven by crowded positions, concentrated leverage and deleveraging, rather than a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions or corporate earnings. U.S. banking lending and consumption data remain on the rise, and TSMC and ASML have also issued positive business signals, yet their related stocks still fell after earnings reports. He tends to view that the momentum factor’s liquidation process is nearing its end, but there is still a lack of immediate catalysts to reverse the market in the short term. The technology sector remains overvalued, and a new leading sector may need to be further clarified after the second-quarter earnings are digested.
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