Polymarket’s probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has fallen to 32%, hitting an all-time low.

As the U.S. Senate remains deadlocked over the CLARITY Act, prediction market Polymarket has slashed the probability of the bill being passed by the end of 2026 to 32%, the lowest level since the platform launched in January this year. Data shows this probability has dropped by roughly 30 percentage points from the market’s launch, and plummeted sharply from the 82% peak hit in February this year. Market participants believe that with the Senate’s legislative schedule tightening and bipartisan support still unachieved, the likelihood of the bill passing this year continues to decline. Reports indicate that the biggest sticking point right now is that the two parties have yet to reach an agreement on ethics provisions related to conflicts of interest for government officials involving digital assets. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego previously stated clearly that he would not support the bill in Senate votes if it does not include the bipartisan-backed ethics provisions. The CLARITY Act aims to establish a regulatory framework for the U.S. digital asset market and clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Multiple industry stakeholders testified at a House of Representatives hearing that the bill would help end "regulation by enforcement" and provide long-term, stable regulatory rules for the digital asset sector. As the U.S. Congress heads into its August recess, market expectations for the bill to be enacted into law this year are continuing to cool.