Bank of America Fund Manager Survey: Going Long on Global Semiconductors Becomes One of the Most Crowded Trades in History
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Bank of America’s July Global Fund Manager Survey shows investors hold conflicting views on AI semiconductor trades: most have not yet bet the cycle is ending, but a growing number see the trade as overcrowded. The survey found 82% of participating fund managers view "going long on global semiconductors" as the world’s most crowded trade, a new record. Meanwhile, allocations to tech stocks fell from a net 26% overweight to a net 18% overweight, indicating investors are trimming some long positions but not yet turning bearish. The survey also showed 61% of investors do not expect hyperscalers to announce capital expenditure cuts this year. BofA’s survey further noted that an AI bubble has become one of the largest tail risks, with the share of respondents citing it rising from 28% in June to 45% in July. However, only a portion of investors believe AI stocks are already in a bubble phase; most still view them as being in a "boom phase" — where momentum continues to attract capital inflows, though position and valuation risks are rising. The survey was conducted from July 2 to July 9, covering 210 fund managers who collectively oversee approximately $555 billion in assets.
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