Goldman Sachs: Semiconductor industry fundamentals remain supported, while leveraged ETFs amplify volatility in tech stocks.

Goldman Sachs’ latest research report points out that the recent sharp volatility in global tech stocks is mainly driven by liquidity deleveraging triggered by highly leveraged transactions, rather than a deterioration in the semiconductor industry’s fundamentals. The U.S. investment bank noted that newly launched single-stock 2x leveraged ETFs in South Korea have amplified market volatility, with multiple leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix once posting single-day declines of over 30% recently. To maintain their leverage ratios, the funds were forced to offload underlying stocks, creating a liquidity stampede feedback loop of "price drops → forced selling → deeper declines." Goldman Sachs estimates that around 62% of recent net selling by South Korean institutional investors comes from the liquidation of these ETFs. Meanwhile, the Leuthold Group pointed out that the U.S. margin balance has risen by roughly 54% over the past 12 months, entering a historically high range. Leveraged funds are heavily concentrated in the AI and semiconductor sectors, making the market structure more fragile. However, Goldman Sachs believes the semiconductor industry has not yet reached its cycle peak. The firm noted that earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have not been revised down. Limited expansion of memory chip production capacity means supply tightness is expected to persist until the second half of 2028, and the current pullback is more a position adjustment than a fundamental reversal of the industry.