Bernstein maintains its year-end Bitcoin price target of $150,000, noting the current cycle’s pullback is milder than historical cycles.

Despite Bitcoin’s price having pulled back roughly 54% from its near-$125,000 peak in October 2025, Bernstein has maintained its year-end target price of $150,000. The firm notes that this cycle’s pullback is significantly smaller than the 75% to 90% declines typical in the final stages of historical cycles, signaling a notable shift in market structure. Against the backdrop of current weak market sentiment, the clear target price set by the Wall Street firm can serve as a price anchor for the market, while the historical pullback framework helps traders assess risks. If this cycle aligns with historical trends, the market could still see further declines, though the firm’s outlook for a subsequent recovery remains noteworthy. Bernstein points out that the October 2025 near-$125,000 peak remains a key reference resistance level; calculated based on a historical 75% pullback, the corresponding price is roughly $31,000, viewed as a critical zone. Going forward, focus will center on whether Bitcoin spot ETF inflows and spot demand rebound, a key signal to determine if the market enters a recovery phase.