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AI capital rotation, full implementation of MiCA, and stablecoin competition are the market’s key focuses this week.

2026.07.05 11:01:16

This week, the digital asset industry’s discussions centered on topics including AI, the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, stablecoins, and Bitcoin. On the AI front, multiple industry insiders noted that current market capital is shifting from digital assets to AI infrastructure development, and future value in the AI sector may be captured more by application layers and infrastructure providers rather than just large language model developers. Additionally, some argue that if the U.S. government acquires equity in OpenAI, it could further exacerbate the trend of centralization in the AI industry. On the regulatory side, as MiCA’s transition period has officially ended, EU crypto asset service providers must now obtain full MiCA licenses to continue operating. Industry players believe that regulatory compliance will gradually become a key competitive advantage for crypto payment and digital asset service providers in Europe. Regarding stablecoins, the industry continues to focus on the newly launched Open USD (OUSD). Analysts believe its ecosystem, involving over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, BlackRock, and BNY, is poised to challenge the existing stablecoin market landscape (such as USDC) by leveraging distribution advantages. However, some point out that OUSD still faces challenges including liquidity cultivation and governance coordination. On the Bitcoin front, market views are divided over recent capital operations by Michael Saylor’s firm Strategy. Some analysts argue that the company’s recent financing arrangements mean it may still sell Bitcoin to meet future funding needs; others believe the move effectively eases market concerns about its liquidity and default risks, representing a positive risk management measure.

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NBA, CFTC Sign Prediction Market Regulatory Agreement; Kalshi, Polymarket Named Preferred Partner Platforms

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the National Basketball Association (NBA). The two parties will share information and establish communication mechanisms to uphold fairness in prediction market trading, and prevent insider trading and market manipulation. The NBA also announced that Kalshi and Polymarket will serve as its preferred prediction market platforms. The NBA is the third U.S. professional sports league to ink a similar deal with the CFTC, following the National Hockey League (NHL) and Major League Baseball (MLB). Regulatory authority over prediction markets remains a contentious issue. The CFTC maintains that most prediction market contracts are swaps subject to its exclusive jurisdiction, while multiple U.S. states argue the platforms violate state gambling laws. New Jersey has petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve the dispute, and the NFL has filed an amicus curiae brief asserting that sports prediction contracts count as gambling and should be regulated by states. Moreover, insider trading in prediction markets continues to draw close scrutiny. Both Kalshi and Polymarket stated they have taken measures to enhance verification of identity and employment details for traders with access to sensitive market information, to mitigate risks of trading based on non-public data.

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Bitcoin once again fell below $80,000.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin once again fell below $80,000, with a 0.84% decline in the past 24 hours.

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Bernstein cuts Coinbase's price target to $250, raises earnings estimates for Robinhood and Circle.

In its latest research note, Bernstein maintained its "Outperform" ratings for Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle, while revising the three firms’ earnings forecasts and price targets. As crypto spot trading growth slows, prediction markets, derivatives, and tokenization businesses are emerging as new growth engines for these players. For Coinbase, Bernstein cut its price target from $330 to $250, lowered its 2026 revenue forecast by roughly 32% to $5.5 billion, and projects an annual net loss of $2.60 per share, down from its prior forecast of $5.97 in earnings per share (EPS). The firm expects Coinbase’s prediction market and derivatives businesses to generate around $2 billion in revenue by 2028, up from its earlier estimate of roughly $600 million. For Robinhood, Bernstein kept its $160 price target unchanged, forecasting its prediction market business will hit $1.7 billion in revenue by 2028, slightly outpacing the $1.6 billion projected for its crypto business in the same period. The firm projects Robinhood’s third-quarter event contract volume will rise 21% quarter-over-quarter to around 16.4 billion contracts; its in-house blockchain, launched in July, generated roughly $90 billion in transaction volume and $50 million in fees in Q3. For Circle, Bernstein raised its price target from $140 to $145, and forecasts its third-quarter revenue will edge up to $770 million. While USDC’s circulation fell from roughly $77 billion in Q2 to around $73 billion, weighing on reserve-related revenue, Arc’s token presales, future transaction fees, and validator staking income are poised to provide new growth sources.

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Goldman Sachs: US retail stock trading activity fell 45% from the end of last year, with stock supply projected to hit a 26-year high in 2027.

Goldman Sachs data shows US retail stock trading activity has fallen by around 45% from end-2025, with retail trading’s share of total US stock volume dropping from 15% at the end of last year to roughly 9% — near its lowest level since 2020. The bank attributes the slump to rising energy prices, weak consumer confidence, and higher US Treasury yields, which are eroding retail investors’ willingness to buy. Despite cooling enthusiasm for short-term trading, US households net purchased around $840 billion in US stocks in the first half of the year, while stock mutual funds and ETFs drew roughly $350 billion in inflows so far this year. However, household stock assets are highly concentrated, with the top 10% of households holding approximately 87% of total household stock holdings. Goldman Sachs also warns the US stock market is facing supply pressure: US public and private companies combined to net issue around $175 billion in equity in the first half of 2026. The bank projects that net supply growth in the US public stock market could hit its highest level since 2000 in 2027, driven by new share offerings and lock-up expirations. With hedge funds reducing positions and corporate equity supply rising, Goldman Sachs argues that whether US households continue buying stocks will be key to the market’s ability to absorb the new supply. Its baseline forecast suggests household stock demand will likely stay robust if the labor market remains stable and bond yields moderate.

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Ritual’s mainnet goes live, with its native token RITUAL launched simultaneously and listed on Coinbase.

Ritual Foundation announced in a post that Ritual’s mainnet has officially launched, with its native token RITUAL launching simultaneously and listing on Coinbase for its first exchange listing. The project is designed to support autonomous operation of on-chain AI Agents: Agents hold their own keys, using earned income to cover computing costs including inference, API calls, and scheduled tasks. Execution nodes provide computing services and earn token rewards, while validators coordinate tasks and settle transactions. On the token front, RITUAL is used to pay network gas fees and related service fees. The token has no total supply cap, operating via continuous minting and transaction base fee burning. The project team stated that tokens held by insiders are locked for at least one year from the mainnet launch and cannot be staked during the lockup period. Additionally, the project will distribute 50 million RITUAL tokens to eligible Infernet operators, Frenrug users, and long-term community members — accounting for 0.5% of the initial supply — all of which are unlocked at launch. For cross-chain functionality, LayerZero powers RITUAL’s cross-chain services: tokens bridged out of the Ritual network are locked on their original chain, with no new token supply generated in the process.

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Microsoft gained over 1% as it will offer buyout packages to 60,000 employees in its latest round of cost-cutting measures.

According to market data from BIT (Bit.com), Microsoft’s intraday share price rose more than 1%, lifting its market capitalization to $3.94 trillion. In related news, Microsoft will offer a buyout package to 60,000 employees as part of its latest round of cost-cutting measures. The voluntary severance program is available to eligible employees at level 70 and below across participating teams in Canada, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

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