SemiAnalysis: Latest U.S. economic data is rife with noise, while AI infrastructure development remains in full swing.

SemiAnalysis noted in a report that multiple recent U.S. economic data releases are rife with noise. The upward revision to first-quarter (Q1) GDP was primarily driven by a decline in imports; one-third of May’s personal income growth came from one-time farm relief payments; the surge in PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation was led by energy prices; and the sharp drop in durable goods orders stemmed from a reversal in aircraft orders. All these idiosyncratic factors are set to mean-revert, and stripping them out would reshape the broader economic landscape. Tariff-driven goods inflation is a one-time level shock that will drop out of year-over-year data in roughly 12 months, but consumers’ real purchasing power has been permanently reduced and will not recover even as inflation cools. Goods inflation has now outpaced services inflation, reflecting the pass-through effect of tariffs. SemiAnalysis argues that despite macro data volatility, AI-related capital expenditure is a real and sustained trend. Equipment and software contributed 1.55 percentage points to Q1 GDP growth, four times the contribution from consumer spending. Core capital goods orders rose 1.6%, and AI data center construction is rapidly expanding its share of the economy, with no mean reversion in sight.