Reuters survey: Federal Reserve to hold federal funds rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range until the end of 2027

Carlos San Basilio, chair of Spain’s National Securities Market Commission (CNMV), said crypto firms that fail to obtain EU MiCA licenses by the end of June will not be granted any extensions or exemptions by the regulator. Large platforms must exit the EU market in compliance with regulations. The regulator is in close communication with unauthorized firms, focusing on their exit plans and customer asset transfer arrangements to safeguard investor interests. He also warned that investors conducting new transactions on unlicensed platforms will no longer enjoy protection under the MiCA framework.

Prediction market platform Polymarket has disclosed its annualized revenue has crossed the $1 billion mark. The FIFA World Cup has continuously boosted trading volumes across platforms since its kickoff: Polymarket’s U.S. platform daily trading volume surged from around $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million on June 20; the international platform’s total weekly trading volume, after a decline in April and May, also hit an all-time high during the World Cup. Previously, Polymarket was banned from operating in the U.S. in 2022 over incomplete regulatory registration. Last July, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) closed their investigation into the firm without filing charges, and its U.S. platform now operates as a CFTC-regulated trading venue.

SecondFi Update on Incident Fund Recovery Progress: The final balance snapshot was completed on June 26, serving as an accurate record basis for subsequent asset recovery. The engineering and security teams have finished balance verification and recovery mechanism assessment, with asset refunds expected to begin in approximately two weeks—one week will be allocated to implementing solutions, and the other to testing and review. The specific timeline may be adjusted based on progress. SecondFi stated that operations will resume only after confirming platform security and completing all security reviews. Currently, users only need to submit applications via support tickets, with no other actions required.

Goldman Sachs strategist Christian stated that amid AI-related trading segments, as chipmaker stocks continue to fluctuate, the investment appeal of large-cap tech stocks may further rise. Currently, the market is led by chip companies and beneficiaries of AI capital expenditure, rather than hyperscale cloud service providers. These chip stocks rank among the most volatile segments in the AI industrial chain, with massive funds building heavily leveraged positions in them via tools like ETFs and options. "If the upward momentum of the AI sector remains strong, investors should increase their allocation to cloud service providers and reduce holdings in semiconductor stocks. Semiconductors are the most volatile link in the AI capital expenditure chain."

Hyperliquid ecosystem mobile trading platform Dreamcash announced it will shut down its CASH perpetual market deployed under HIP-3. The shutdown will be phased over three days from June 30 to July 2, with each market settling sequentially at oracle prices. All open positions will be automatically closed at the settlement price, requiring no user action. As the platform uses a non-custodial architecture, user funds, balances and rewards remain unaffected, so no withdrawal is needed. Dreamcash stated it will reallocate core resources to developing its mobile trading application, which itself is unaffected and will continue operating as usual.

FTSE Russell’s semi-annual index reconstitution will take effect after U.S. stock market close this Friday. The most notable change in this adjustment is that Nvidia will replace Apple as the top-weighted stock in the Russell 1000 Index, while Apple will drop to third place, and Walmart will make its debut in the index’s top 10 weighted stocks. Additionally, AI concept companies including SpaceX and CoreWeave have been added to the index system, further boosting the index’s exposure to AI-related firms. Preliminary lists show 62 companies are newly added to the Russell 1000 and 237 to the Russell 2000; Alphabet and AMD were removed from the Russell 1000 Value Index and fully reclassified as growth stocks. Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, described the move as “Wall Street’s list-cutting day” — thousands of companies are re-ranked across indices based on their latest market capitalizations, with winners moving up and laggards demoted. Unusually, this year’s FTSE Russell index reconstitution coincides with the U.S. quarter-end pension rebalancing window, exposing the market to dual capital flow shocks. Goldman Sachs estimates U.S. pensions will net sell roughly $30 billion in stocks at the end of this quarter. With passive index rebalancing and pension rebalancing occurring simultaneously, Friday’s closing session could be one of the year’s most capital-dense and volatile trading periods. JPMorgan notes that companies promoted from the Russell 2000 to the Russell 1000 typically have stronger growth attributes, higher volatility, and lower dividend payouts. As these firms exit, the overall dividend yield of remaining Russell 2000 companies is expected to rise by around 16.5% — a structural shift with far-reaching impacts on investors using income or value strategies benchmarked against the Russell 2000.