QCP Capital：市场关注点从美伊协议签署转向执行风险，美联储释放更长期维持高利率信号

OpenAI and Broadcom have jointly launched an artificial intelligence chip, designed to run models faster and more cost-effectively.

According to Bitget data, spot gold has fallen below the $4,000 per ounce threshold, marking the first such decline since November last year. It has shed roughly $1,600 from its all-time high of $5,596 per ounce set earlier this year.

Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick has initiated coverage on decentralized lending protocol Aave, projecting the AAVE token could surge to $3,500 by the end of 2030—roughly a 50x increase from its current level of around $70. Kendrick noted Aave has moved past market turmoil tied to the April network hack, with assets starting to flow back to the platform. The protocol appears to have recovered from the incident and remains on track to retain its dominance in on-chain lending markets. In April, KelpDAO’s rsETH bridge collapse roiled DeFi, as attackers used roughly $290 million in stolen tokens as collateral on Aave to borrow real assets, exposing the protocol to a potential maximum loss of $230 million and triggering depositor outflows. Kendrick likened Aave to an automated, blockchain-based bank with no staff or discretionary decision-making. He added that at its peak in October 2025, Aave held around $75 billion in deposits—a sum that would rank it among the top 30 largest banks in the U.S. if it were a traditional financial institution. Looking ahead, Kendrick projects the value of tokenized assets actively used in DeFi applications will grow 37x by the end of this decade. Since Aave’s revenue model is closely tied to lending activity and deposits, Standard Chartered expects the protocol’s growth to translate directly to gains for the AAVE token. The report also notes that Aave’s token buyback program could be restarted, acting as an additional catalyst. Aave’s Horizon initiative, which aims to support lending using tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) as collateral in permissioned environments, may help attract traditional financial institutions and accelerate adoption.

Micron Technology (MU.O) is set to release its fiscal third-quarter results after U.S. markets close on Wednesday. Before the earnings release, Micron’s stock has surged more than 7x over the past year, pushing its market capitalization past $1 trillion. The market expects Micron’s stock to swing roughly 14% post-earnings, corresponding to a market cap shift of over $150 billion. This rally is primarily driven by a severe memory chip shortage fueled by AI demand, which has lifted memory stocks including Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix. The fiscal third quarter ended in May; consensus estimates call for Micron’s revenue to jump 279% year-over-year to $35.3 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising from $1.91 to $20.28. Given the company’s rapid growth, investors’ focus may extend beyond the just-completed quarter’s performance to its fiscal fourth-quarter guidance. Analysts currently forecast Micron’s fiscal fourth-quarter revenue at $42.5 billion, with adjusted EPS of $24.80. If the company delivers another set of guidance that significantly beats expectations, its stock could continue rising; however, at current valuation levels, any miss on key metrics could trigger a sharp pullback. Profit margins are also a core variable. Micron’s fiscal second-quarter gross margin hit 74.4%, up from 36.8% in the year-ago period and 56% in the first quarter. The company previously projected a gross margin of 81% for the third quarter. If gross margins continue to rise in the fourth quarter, it would signal that the memory pricing environment remains tight. Additionally, the market will watch whether management maintains its view that "supply tightness for data center and AI-related memory will persist beyond 2026". Micron previously stated that for some key clients, it can only meet 50% to two-thirds of their demand in the medium term.

Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn stated in a report that upcoming U.S. economic data will determine whether the current rally of the U.S. dollar has further upside potential. She explained that if inflation and labor market data continue to support the narrative that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period, the dollar should continue to draw support. If price pressures start easing faster, markets may begin to question whether current interest rate expectations have become overly aggressive. The PCE data (the U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge) and initial jobless claims data are set to be released on Thursday, while the non-farm payrolls report is due on July 2. (Jin10)

On Wednesday, multiple Wall Street institutions issued key rating adjustments covering firms including Nvidia, Tesla, AMD, Reddit, and Arm. Seaport reaffirmed its "Sell" rating on Nvidia, citing growing burdens on and off Nvidia’s balance sheet, plus Broadcom’s entry into the cycle financing trend, as signs of rising financing constraints facing the AI industry. Stifel initiated coverage on BlackBerry for the first time, assigning it a "Buy" rating, noting the market still misdefines BlackBerry; the company is no longer just an automotive supplier, but a critical software layer in the physical AI stack, and partners with chip firms including Nvidia, Qualcomm, and AMD. UBS reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on AMD and raised its target price for the chipmaker from $470 to $670, stating it is more positive on AMD as its standalone CPU racks gain market recognition. TD Cowen reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on Arm and lifted its target price from $265 to $475, noting Arm’s 2031 fiscal year target of $15 billion for AGI CPUs is reasonable, though GPU-CPU pairing rates and per-core pricing remain key variables. RBC reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating on Tesla, forecasting the automaker’s second-quarter deliveries will hit 405,000 units, above the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 401,000. Needham reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on Reddit, saying the platform holds a rare competitive position largely insulated from the generative AI storm. Separately, Citizens initiated coverage on Bitdeer, CleanSpark, Keel Infrastructure, and MARA Holdings, assigning all an "Outperform" rating, noting these bitcoin miners are repurposing their existing power capacity to deliver high-performance computing to hyperscale clients and large enterprises.