Lookonchain APP

App Store

Analysis: Bitcoin has traded below the cost basis of short-term holders for 8 consecutive months, with an average unrealized loss of 14.4%.

2026.06.24 11:23:54

According to a post by analyst Darkfost, the realized price of Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders (STH) is currently around $74,800, and BTC has traded below this cost level for eight consecutive months, leaving most short-term holders under unrealized loss pressure. The average unrealized loss for STHs is now roughly 14.4%, a notable improvement from the over 34% unrealized loss level seen in February this year. Notably, the STH cost basis has dropped from $95,700 to $74,800, indicating that some short-term holders continued accumulating BTC during the downturn, pulling down the overall average holding cost. During this cycle, STH unrealized profits hit a peak of 47% in March 2024, but stood at just 11% when BTC set its all-time high in October 2025, reflecting that the market’s profit-taking level is significantly weaker than in prior phases. The $74,800 STH cost level remains a key resistance point for BTC. If Bitcoin can reclaim this level, it could signal a positive shift in market structure; until then, this zone is likely to act as a sell-pressure area for short-term holders looking to break even.

Relevant content

Bitget launches Phase 2 of its US stock bottom-fishing interest-earning FCN, offering 20% off on US stock purchases and up to 25% APR.

Bitget launches Phase 2 US stock bottom-fishing interest-earning product FCN (Fixed Coupon Note). This phase features an 80% discount, with underlying assets and reference APR ranges as follows: MicroStrategy (MSTR) 19%–25%, SK Hynix (SKHY) 14%–17%, and SpaceX (SPCX) 13%–16%. Additionally, Bitget’s limited-time cashback promotion is ongoing: users who reach specified cumulative subscription tiers will receive corresponding cashback rewards, with a maximum of 10,000 USDT per user. The promotion runs until September 18; more details are available on Bitget’s official platform. It is understood that Bitget FCN (Fixed Coupon Note) is a structured financial product linked to a single US stock rToken. Users can subscribe with USDT and select their target US stock underlying asset. The product’s entry execution price is determined by multiplying the US stock’s closing price on the product’s subscription end date by the discount rate. At maturity, if the observation price is at or above the execution price, users will receive their USDT principal plus fixed interest. If the observation price is below the execution price, the principal will be converted to the corresponding rToken at the execution price, while users still retain the fixed interest.

1 seconds ago

The U.S. does not expect a full-scale resumption of conflict with Iran, and diplomatic officials who were previously evacuated are set to return to their posts in the Middle East.

According to a New York Times report, an internal document shows that U.S. diplomatic officials who were previously evacuated could return to their respective posts in the Middle East as early as this week, a sign that Washington does not expect a full-scale resumption of conflict with Iran. Per Bitget market data, international oil prices continue their short-term decline: WTI crude has fallen below $82 per barrel, down 3.02% intraday, while Brent crude is down 2.6% at $88.04 per barrel.

1 seconds ago

Joseph Tsai puts his confidence behind Alibaba’s AI strategy, spending an additional HK$82 million to acquire 720,000 shares today.

According to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) filings, Alibaba Group chairman Joseph Tsai purchased an additional 720,000 Alibaba shares on Tuesday, spending HK$82 million, following his initial purchase of the same number of shares. After Alibaba announced its HK$80 billion new share placement plan, Tsai and CEO Eddie Wu made combined share purchases totaling approximately HK$120 million yesterday, signaling confidence in the company’s AI strategy. Wu bought 350,000 Alibaba Hong Kong-listed shares at an average price of around HK$111.6, costing roughly HK$40 million. Together, the two acquired 1.07 million shares for a total of about HK$120 million. All proceeds from Alibaba’s HK$80 billion new share placement will be fully invested in full-stack AI capabilities and AI infrastructure construction. The offering was actively subscribed by long-term investors including global sovereign wealth funds, ultimately achieving nearly 3 times oversubscription.

1 seconds ago

Arthur Hayes reiterates his bullish call on ENA: Massive upside potential, the return of basis trade is a bullish signal.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes is once again bullish on ENA: Over-the-counter brokers have started reaching out to us to inquire about borrowing U.S. dollars. Interest rates are still too low, but this is a good sign that basis trading is making a comeback, and ENA will benefit significantly with massive upside potential. Earlier reports noted that Hayes accumulated 22.64 million ENA tokens at the start of the month, totaling approximately $2 million. He also stated earlier this month that if increased U.S. dollar liquidity drives Bitcoin higher, a rebound in Bitcoin basis returns could draw funds back into USDe, adding that ENA has the potential to rally fivefold in the coming months. According to HTX market data, ENA is down 7.1% in the past 24 hours, trading at $0.15.

1 seconds ago

Buy Tokens Once, Use Anywhere: Alibaba Cloud’s Token Plan Officially Integrates with Qianwen

Beating AI Express News: Alibaba Cloud’s Token Plan is now officially integrated with Qianwen App and its PC version. After users bind the Token Plan’s dedicated API Key in the "Work Assistant", they can directly use their subscription quota for complex tasks, including operating computers and browsers, calling Skills, and creating Office documents, applications, and websites. This effectively extends the same model quota from development tools to Qianwen. The Token Plan was already compatible with AI programming and Agent tools such as Codex, Claude Code, Cursor, Qoder, and OpenClaw; now, it is also accessible for use with Qianwen’s Work Assistant. Supported models include Qwen3.8-Max, among others, with all models and tools charged uniformly via Credits.

1 seconds ago

A BTC whale with a cost basis of roughly $45,000 per BTC has started offloading, selling Bitcoin worth $111.61 million.

Per Lookonchain’s monitoring, a crypto whale who had remained dormant for four years has sold 1,400 Bitcoin, valued at $111.61 million. The whale purchased 2,200 Bitcoin four years ago at an average price of $45,024, totaling $99.05 million. Notably, the whale did not sell even when their unrealized profits peaked at $178 million, but has recently begun offloading Bitcoin, and has now realized a profit of $76.5 million.

1 seconds ago

Popular tokens

BitcoinEthereumHyperliquidSolanaTRONBNBTetherAaveXRPPepeFartcoinOndoJupiterUniswapBonkPendleEthenaArbitrumAvalancheLidoChainlinkPolygonDogecoinCardano