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Analysis: Bitcoin has traded below the cost basis of short-term holders for 8 consecutive months, with an average unrealized loss of 14.4%.

3 hours ago

According to a post by analyst Darkfost, the realized price of Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders (STH) is currently around $74,800, and BTC has traded below this cost level for eight consecutive months, leaving most short-term holders under unrealized loss pressure. The average unrealized loss for STHs is now roughly 14.4%, a notable improvement from the over 34% unrealized loss level seen in February this year. Notably, the STH cost basis has dropped from $95,700 to $74,800, indicating that some short-term holders continued accumulating BTC during the downturn, pulling down the overall average holding cost. During this cycle, STH unrealized profits hit a peak of 47% in March 2024, but stood at just 11% when BTC set its all-time high in October 2025, reflecting that the market’s profit-taking level is significantly weaker than in prior phases. The $74,800 STH cost level remains a key resistance point for BTC. If Bitcoin can reclaim this level, it could signal a positive shift in market structure; until then, this zone is likely to act as a sell-pressure area for short-term holders looking to break even.

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