Bitunix Analyst:The US-Iran Deal and Oil Drop Are Only the Prologue—Risk Assets Enter the Ultimate Test of aTrue"Higher-for-Longer"Era

June 17 – The global market’s core narrative is shifting away from “the Middle East war is drawing to a close” toward “asset repricing in the post-conflict era.” Details of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) are coming into focus, including lifted oil export restrictions, unfrozen assets, and a planned $300 billion private investment fund. Markets are already pricing in Iran’s return to global energy and capital markets, but the actual pace of Strait of Hormuz normalization remains unclear: European allies are wary of demining and escort operations, and shipping firms broadly estimate a full return to unimpeded transit will take weeks or longer. Geopolitical risk has faded, but it’s by no means gone. Energy markets are already reflecting this shift. With the U.S. potentially allowing Iran to immediately resume oil exports, roughly 68 million barrels of stranded Iranian crude are poised to re-enter the market. Add to that the potential expiration of Russia’s oil exemption, and the global energy supply structure is undergoing an overhaul. In the near term, ramped-up Iranian production should help lower oil and transportation costs—but if Russian exports get curbed again, energy markets could face a fresh supply-demand tug-of-war. That’s why gold demand isn’t visibly cooling even amid peace hopes: a World Gold Council survey shows central banks are steadily building gold reserves, reflecting unshaken long-term defensive demand tied to geopolitical and global debt risks. Meanwhile, global central bank policy is showing clear divergence. The Bank of Japan has hiked to a 31-year high of 1% and announced it will halt further reductions to its bond purchases next year. The Reserve Bank of Australia held steady after consecutive rate hikes. Major central banks have entered a new phase: “higher rates for longer, but avoid sharp liquidity crunches.” The market’s real focus, though, is squarely on tonight’s first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Citadel Securities data, academic surveys, and market pricing all point to expectations gradually shifting from rate cuts to renewed hike risk. Put differently: for the past two years, markets traded the timeline of cuts; now they’re starting to trade the possibility of a rising cost of capital. What’s striking, though, is that risk assets continue to draw capital even as hawkish expectations build. SpaceX completed a $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere and briefly vaulted past Microsoft and Amazon to become the world’s fourth-largest company by market capitalization. AI, space technology, and mega-cap tech capital expenditure (capex) continue to accelerate. But this is stoking concerns about an imbalance between valuations and liquidity. Credit markets still have extremely tight spreads, and tech firms can borrow at very low rates—so high rates haven’t truly clamped down on risk-asset valuations yet. For crypto, the biggest variable isn’t the Middle East anymore—it’s whether Warsh will scale back forward guidance and redefine financial conditions moving forward. If the Fed only holds rates high while letting credit keep expanding, market liquidity could continue to prop up risk-asset performance. But if future policy combines balance sheet reduction with credit tightening, tech stocks, AI plays, and crypto could all face renewed valuation resets. On the surface, markets are trading a “peace dividend” — in reality, they’re waiting for the Fed to set the direction of the next round of global liquidity. Bitcoin (BTC) performance will continue to reflect the market’s true take on the future cost of capital and liquidity trajectory.