Strait of Hormuz Reopening Expectations Rise, Shipping Companies Cautiously Await US-Iran Agreement Details

June 15. The New York Times reports that the U.S. and Iran have reached a preliminary framework to resolve their conflict and plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But global shipping firms say they won’t immediately bring back large-scale traffic through the strait—not until clear security guarantees are in place. Multiple shipping companies note that the biggest uncertainty right now is the lack of a clear security system for ships passing through the strait. They still need to confirm two key points: whether Iran has promised to stop attacking commercial vessels, and whether steady, workable navigation rules will exist. Some firms add that fully resuming passage could take weeks—or even months. U.S.-based shipping company Safesea Group says its ships in the Gulf are still either damaged or detained, and the firm needs “a clear guarantee against attacks” before resuming voyages. Norwegian shipping firm Hoegh Autoliners adds that even with positive progress in the framework, it’s not enough to jump back into shipping right away. The Japan Shipowners’ Association has made a similar point: it will hold off until it gets more specific safety and navigation plans, since up to 38 related ships are still detained in the Gulf. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) calls the framework an important step toward restoring safe shipping operations, but stresses two critical needs: setting up a security system and gradually evacuating roughly 11,000 stranded sailors. Industry groups also note that a neutral coordination system will be needed down the line to prevent risks like collisions from too many ships passing through at once. Vessel tracking agency Kpler reports that roughly 500 large commercial ships are still detained in the Persian Gulf. Analysts say whether the Strait of Hormuz will actually return to normal navigation depends on how quickly security enforcement systems are set up, and on rebuilding trust among all involved parties.