Opinion: Draft Details of US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Still Remain Highly Uncertain

On June 15, CNBC reported that the United States and Iran have reached a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to end nearly four months of hostilities. Both sides have agreed to halt hostile actions and move forward with subsequent peace talks. Markets responded swiftly to the development: stocks rallied, while oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields fell simultaneously. The agreement has not yet been formally signed, and its full text has not been made public. Iran’s side stated the draft is finalized, with a signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Geneva. It declared, “War has permanently and immediately ended on all fronts.” U.S. President Trump added that he will lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iran and work to de-escalate related military deployments. Key terms of the deal include a 60-day extension of the ceasefire to facilitate framework negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and regional security. A major sticking point: Iran reportedly demanded the U.S. release billions of dollars in frozen assets as a condition for launching nuclear talks, a demand the U.S. rejected. On the energy and shipping front, Trump announced plans to help facilitate the “free opening” of the Strait of Hormuz and lift U.S. military blockade measures, emphasizing that “oil should flow freely.” Iranian media countered that reopening the strait would still need to follow Iran’s internal arrangements. Countries like Qatar welcomed the agreement, stressing support for freedom of navigation. Notably, Israel is not party to the agreement and continues to maintain a presence in regional military operations. The extent of Israel’s acceptance of the deal remains unclear, making it a major source of uncertainty in the weeks ahead. Analysts point out that the agreement is more of a “tactical cooldown” rather than a final peaceful resolution. Core disagreements—especially over Iran’s nuclear issue and the framework of sanctions—remain unresolved, leaving open the possibility of further escalation in the coming months.