Celebrity Analysts Sharply Respond to "Optical Module Bearish Report": Outdated Information, Fearmongering

June 10: Yesterday, SemiAnalysis—an independent research firm specializing in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and data centers—published a report flagging significant delays to two key AI data center technologies. The note is widely cited as one of the primary catalysts driving a sharp pullback in U.S. AI sector stocks the day prior. In response, a cohort of prominent analysts have slammed the SemiAnalysis report as outdated and alarmist, per a summary compiled by BlockBeats: "Stock God with White Hair" Serenity took to social media to strongly challenge the research, calling its findings unreliable. Serenity stated they are leaning into the accelerated mass production timelines laid out by industry chain players, noting that Scale-Out CPO will begin ramping up in the second half of this year, while Scale-Up CPO is slated to launch in H2 2027, with a major growth phase kicking off in 2028. Rising U.S. stock star researcher KawzInvests (@KawzInvests) emphasized that photonic communication encompasses far more than just CPO. The pluggable transceiver market is projected to hit $26 billion by 2026 and grow to $45 billion by 2030. KawzInvests added that the report’s claim about large-scale CPO production could accelerate adoption of NPO technology. Meanwhile, segments like LPO/LRO are expected to expand from $12 billion in 2026 to over $50 billion by 2030, while OCS is forecasted to rise from $1 billion to more than $4 billion. Overall, the long-term photonics market remains on a strong growth trajectory, fueled by surging high-speed interconnect demand from AI data centers. Renowned U.S. stock KOL Herman Jin (@ShanghaoJin) shared a similar take. Jin argued that the SemiAnalysis report’s information is severely outdated, but noted that delays to CPO/800V are purely timing issues that won’t derail overall progress. He also reiterated the importance of model-side demand, pointing out that "as long as model intelligence doesn’t regress—other so-called bearish news is irrelevant. The market’s overfocus on 2027 expectations is unnecessary."