Glassnode Cofounder: Bitcoin Historical Valuation Model Indicates Key Bottom Range of $46,000 to $54,000

June 7: Glassnode co-founder Rafael announced Bitcoin has retraced roughly 50% from its all-time high. On-chain data shows BTC is currently hovering around a critical support zone formed by its median price ($64.1k) and the 200-week moving average (≈$61.7k). Historically, Bitcoin has spent only about 7% of its trading time below this level. Looking at long-term valuation benchmarks, below the 200-week moving average lie the realized price (≈$54k), CVDD (≈$46.2k), fair value price (≈$40k), and Delta price (≈$35k). Past bear market bottoms have consistently tested these cost ranges before reversing, with CVDD widely considered the most reliable historical bottom indicator. Current model calculations place the $46k–$54k range as a high-probability bottom zone, while the $35k–$40k bracket is an extreme deep surrender zone—seen on less than 3% of trading days historically. However, as the Bitcoin market matures, each cycle’s retracement magnitude is narrowing. Prior bear markets saw peak declines of 85%, 84%, and 77% respectively; this cycle has only retraced ~50% from its all-time high so far. This means there’s still potential for further downside, but the more likely bottom falls in the $46k–$54k range. If a rebound follows, the first key resistance zone is at $75k–$79k, with heavier pressure around the 50-week moving average (~$93k) and the previous all-time high.