Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin Reaching $100,000 This Year" Drops to 33%

### FLASH: May 31 Bitcoin Market Update Selling pressure on Bitcoin spot ETFs continues to mount. Following a $12.6 billion net outflow last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw another $14.2 billion in net outflows this week, briefly pulling BTC down to $72,500. However, on-chain and market data show some funds are starting to buy the dip around $70,000. Spot market buying has absorbed a portion of the selling pressure and provided price support, though buying volume remains insufficient to reverse the current downtrend. Derivatives market data adds that traders added roughly $300 million in long leveraged positions in the $73,000 to $74,000 range, signaling some investors are betting on a price rebound. Additionally, the order book depth ratio has turned positive, meaning the market views BTC as attractive below $75,000. To push Bitcoin back into an uptrend, the market still needs new catalysts, including progress in the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, a reversal of spot ETF net outflow

May 31: According to CME’s FedWatch data, there’s a 51.8% probability the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through December, while the chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is merely 0.2%. Odds of a Fed rate hike this year have dropped to 48%, broken down as: 37.9% likelihood of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase, 9.2% for a 50-basis-point hike, and 0.9% probability of a 75-basis-point cumulative rise.

On May 31, data from Defillama shows Polymarket generated $999,000 in revenue over the past 24 hours, edging out Pump.fun’s $848,000 to take the 5th spot among all DeFi protocols. The platform’s total revenue has now topped $60 million.

May 31 – Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf stated in his opening address at the first session of the third year of the 12th parliament that diplomatic personnel have absolute distrust for the enemy’s words and promises. Iran’s sole criterion is objective, tangible results that must be achieved, and it will fulfill its commitments based on such results. The country will never approve any agreement until the legitimate rights of the Iranian people are fully protected. (CCTV News)

As of May 31, HyperInsight monitoring shows Loracle has further cut its $16 million HYPE short position, now holding 1.301 million HYPE worth approximately $89 million, with floating losses topping $30 million. On the other hand, Loracle increased long positions in ZEC, TON, and ASTER by a total of around $6.5 million, and these long positions continue to rise.

May 31 – Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance is proposing to expand access to financing for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by allowing them to use digital assets, virtual assets, intellectual property, and other types of assets as collateral for bank loans. The proposal is included in a draft amendment to the *Law on Support for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises*, which is currently open for public comment. Under the new framework, businesses would be able to pledge digital assets, virtual assets, intangible assets, intellectual property, and even future assets (assets not yet formed) as loan security. Vietnam highlighted that SMEs and individual businesses make up more than 98% of the country’s total enterprises, yet their loan balances only account for roughly 20% of national bank credit – a gap the policy aims to narrow. Separately, Vietnam is ramping up regulation of its cryptocurrency sector. In March this year, the country opened an application process for local crypto e