Wintermute: Bitcoin Key Support Level is in the $75,000-$76,000 Range, Market Structure Has Not Completely Deteriorated

**May 26 Market Update** Wintermute noted in a recent post that the macro environment improved significantly last week. Key shifts: Brent crude plunged 9% on easing Iran tensions, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slipped to 4.50%, and U.S. stocks notched their eighth consecutive weekly gain, hitting an all-time high. While energy-driven inflation pressures eased, consumer anxiety remained elevated: the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index hit a record low of 44.8, with 1-year inflation expectations climbing to 4.8%. Separately, May’s manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high, though input costs rose to their highest level since 2022, signaling a resurgence in commodity inflation. The Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes also struck a hawkish tone—warning further policy tightening could be on the table if inflation stays stubborn—a stance not yet fully priced into markets. On the tech front, NVIDIA delivered a blowout quarterly earnings report: Q1 revenue hit $81.6 billion (up 85% year-over-year), with data center segment growth surging 92%. The chip giant announced an $80 billion share buyback and a 25x dividend increase. Critically, its Q2 guidance assumes zero revenue from Chinese data centers, a sign of stronger-than-expected actual AI demand. Yet the market reaction was unusually muted: NVIDIA’s stock barely moved in after-hours trading, reflecting AI-related trades have reached a "perfectly priced" stage where even strong earnings beats can no longer drive meaningful upside. This is a notable warning for risk assets—including crypto: if AI momentum fades, sticky inflation, lackluster consumption, and a potentially hawkish Fed could reassert control over market narratives. Turning to crypto, digital assets have dramatically underperformed U.S. stocks. BTC hovered around $76,000, while ETH slipped to $2,140, failing to track the broader risk asset rally. Over the past two weeks, BTC spot ETFs saw outflows exceeding $2 billion, with institutional funds cooling on crypto as marginal risk appetite shifts toward AI stocks instead. The ETH/BTC ratio continued to weaken, hitting a 10-month low. A small number of assets held up counter to trends—like HYPE, which recorded a single-day ETF inflow of $25.5 million, paired with signs of accumulation by large institutional wallets. The crypto market structure isn’t fully broken: long-term holders keep stacking assets, and exchange reserves remain low. However, short-term price-determining fund flows are turning negative. BTC’s key support sits at $75,000–$76,000. A break below this range would likely see the market quickly retest $70,000–$72,000; if support holds, there’s still room to retest $80,000.