Analysis: Bitcoin's Short-Term Turnover Dives Significantly, Market Now Near Bottom
May 26th. Analyst Murphy noted that Bitcoin’s current market conditions are best observed via the “Short-Term On-Chain Activity Value Weight” — the share of on-chain USD value attributed to short-term chip turnover. This indicator tracks the latest short-term trading behaviors: speculation, arbitrage, profit-taking, or panic selling. Currently, this weight has fallen to a historically low level, a threshold only ever seen during bear market bottoms in the past 15 years. This points to a significant drop in short-term turnover, with economic value shifting toward long-term chip accumulation, signaling the market is in a phase of low volatility, accumulation, or clear bottom characteristics.
Murphy believes that, based on this data, the market could currently be in one of three stages: a bear market bottom, a secondary bottom (possibly involving one final drop), or pre-bull market accumulation. However, rational analysis temporarily rules out the pre-bull accumulation scenario. He advis
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Iranian State Media Denies Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding
May 26 – Iran’s state television is reporting that recent claims from some foreign media outlets about a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Iran and the U.S. are “pure fabrication and completely baseless.” The network noted that some media sources had alleged just hours earlier they’d obtained the final draft of the Iran-U.S. MOU, which was said to include terms for opening the Strait of Hormuz, launching nuclear talks, and unfreezing Iran’s blocked funds. But all these claims are false, per the state TV report.
Tracking data from PolyBeats shows that on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement plummeted in the short term over multiple recent dates. Currently, the odds of such a deal being reached by May 31 stand at 26%, while the likelihood of it happening by June 30 is 56%.
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The OpenAI Pre-IPO valuation on Binance is trading at a premium of approximately 16% compared to trade.xyz, with an estimated $1.6 trillion valuation.
May 26 update from BlockBeats: Following the launch of OpenAI U Perpetual Futures pre-IPO trading on Binance, the platform’s "estimated per-share price" briefly spiked to $1,630, and is currently trading at $1,600—putting OpenAI’s projected post-listing market capitalization at $1.6 trillion.
Separately, on Hyperliquid ecosystem’s trade.xyz trading platform, OpenAI’s current "estimated per-share price" stands at $1,378, translating to a $1.378 trillion post-listing market cap. This means Binance is charging a roughly 16% premium over trade.xyz’s pricing.
Earlier this month, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman noted that even if the company files for an IPO quickly, it may not go public immediately. The firm’s earliest listing target is September, though the timeline remains flexible. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among the investment banks assisting OpenAI with drafting its IPO prospectus.
According to PolyBeats’ monitoring of prediction market Polymarket, the odds of OpenAI going pu
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The Whale Evaded has once again shorted $40.32 million worth of BTC, with a liquidation price of $77,413.63.
May 26: Per LookOnChain monitoring, the whale Evaded has reentered a short position of 525.34 Bitcoin (valued at $40.32 million) with 40x leverage. The liquidation price for this short trade is $77,413.63. Additionally, Evaded maintains a long position of 53,500 ZEC worth $32.92 million, which is currently sitting at a $1.87 million loss.
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Bitcoin Volatility Nears Lowest Level Since 2023 as Crypto Market Enters 'Calm Before the Storm'
On May 26, Bitcoin’s expected volatility plummeted to a nine-month low. The Bitcoin VIX Index—which tracks 30-day expected volatility derived from option prices—dropped to 36.11, hitting its lowest level since September last year and nearing the 2023 low point.
Weak trading activity, paired with speculative capital shifting away from Bitcoin to other assets, has eased demand for options as a protective hedge. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has pulled back to levels close to its September 2023 lows, with the broader crypto market entering a "breather" phase. Market sentiment remains relatively calm, and short-term volatility is expected to stay suppressed at low levels moving forward.
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