This Week's Top Highlights: Fed Shifts to Hawkish Stance, SpaceX and OpenAI Racing for IPO, NVIDIA's Stellar Performance

May 23. This week’s global markets were marked by wild swings driven by three core themes: escalating tensions in the Middle East, a hawkish pivot from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and a white-hot AI IPO boom. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields surged, while gold, oil, and tech stocks see-sawed violently. AI heavyweights including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic accelerated their IPO plans, sending global risk assets into a period of heightened volatility. On the macro front, Kevin Wash was formally sworn in as the new Fed Chair, pledging to lead a “reform-focused” Federal Reserve. Concurrently, minutes from the Fed’s April meeting revealed that most officials view inflation risks as re-emerging, signaling further interest rate hikes may be on the table. Market expectations for “rates staying higher for longer” jumped sharply, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007. The Middle East remained a top market wildcard. While U.S.-Iran negotiations appeared close to a deal, both sides stayed in a state of “negotiations under pressure”. Persistent navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global energy markets, forcing several commercial vessels to reroute, which triggered sharp swings in oil prices. Investors are now re-evaluating both energy inflation and geopolitical risks. In tech and AI: SpaceX officially filed its IPO prospectus this week, targeting a Nasdaq debut by the end of June with a fundraising range of $500 billion to $750 billion, valuing the company at roughly $1.25 trillion—potentially making it one of the largest IPOs in history. The prospectus disclosed that SpaceX expects to hit $18.7 billion in revenue by 2025, a 33% year-over-year increase. However, due to heavy investments in AI and data centers, the firm is projected to post a net loss of around $4.9 billion this full year. OpenAI was also reported to have secretly submitted its IPO application this week, aiming for a valuation exceeding $1 trillion, while Anthropic plans to go public in the second half of 2026. The capitalization wave across the AI sector is accelerating rapidly. NVIDIA continues to serve as the backbone of the AI bull market. Its latest quarter revenue hit $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, with data center revenue nearly doubling to $75.2 billion. The company also issued next-quarter guidance that handily exceeded analyst expectations. Jensen Huang, NVIDIA’s CEO, stated that mass production of the Rubin AI system will begin in the second half of this year, projecting that Blackwell and Rubin chips will generate roughly $1 trillion in revenue over the coming years. That said, U.S. stock market valuation risks are now coming into focus. The Shiller CAPE ratio, a key measure of long-term equity valuations, has climbed to around 40—matching the level last seen during the dot-com bubble. With leading AI stocks heavily concentrated, investors are worrying the tech sector could repeat the “extreme concentration” trend of the 1999 dot-com era. On the regulatory front, China’s Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) teamed up with eight other government departments to release a “Comprehensive Rectification Implementation Plan for Illegal Cross-Border Securities and Futures Fund Operations”, which aims to fully clean up illegal cross-border business activities conducted by overseas institutions within two years. Platforms including Futu, Tiger Brokers, and Chongyang Investment were hit with heavy fines: Futu alone faces a penalty of 1.85 billion yuan. Following the announcement, related Chinese concept stocks plummeted sharply. In the crypto space, Nasdaq won U.S. SEC approval to launch Bitcoin index options products. Grayscale submitted the third amendment to its Hyperliquid ETF filing under the ticker GHYP. Michael Saylor hinted for the first time that MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy does not rule out selling some of its Bitcoin holdings by 2026, a move that drew significant market attention. Additionally, the latest Q1 13F holdings from Duane Park’s fund management group showed notable increases in positions in Tesla, NVIDIA, and Pinduoduo, alongside new stakes in crypto-related stocks like Circle. This underscores that AI and digital assets remain core targets for global capital.