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30-Year Treasury Yield Nears Historic High, Global Bond Investors Struggle with 'Yield Surge' and Sell-Off Risks

51 minutes ago

May 19 — The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to roughly 5.14%, near a 16-year high last reached in 2007, leaving the global bond market deeply split. While some institutional investors argue long-term U.S. bonds offer attractive value right now, a growing cohort of market participants is concerned that persistent inflation, widening U.S. fiscal deficits, and unrest in the Middle East will drive yields even higher. Goldman Sachs notes that key metrics for long-term U.S. bonds make them a worthwhile portfolio allocation, though the bank is advising caution. Barclays, however, forecasts the 30-year Treasury yield could rise above 5.5%. BlackRock’s research arm, meanwhile, is recommending trimming holdings of developed-market bonds overall, including U.S. Treasuries. Market analysts attribute rising long-term bond term premiums to surging energy prices, ballooning U.S. fiscal deficits, and stubborn inflation momentum — developments that are eroding confidence in the widely held “peak yield” thesis. Compounding this, the base of foreign buyers for U.S. Treasuries has shifted: hedge funds and funds based in major global financial centers have replaced traditional long-term official buyers, making the market far more sensitive to price swings. Nearly all major firms share a key concern: if tensions in the Middle East escalate further, or if U.S. inflation continues to come in above expectations, the long-term U.S. Treasury yield could enter a new upward range, triggering additional volatility across global bond markets.
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Echo Protocol: Monad Deployment Admin Key Compromised, Around $816,000 in Assets Affected

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