CNBC: Europe Faces Possible Oil Shortage Within Weeks as Inventory Depletion Far Exceeds Expectations

May 18 — CNBC is reporting that multiple industry watchdogs are issuing urgent alerts over plummeting global crude oil inventories, warning Europe could face an actual physical oil shortage as early as the end of this month, with stockpile recovery not expected until December 2027. Jeff Currie, co-head of Abaxx Commodity Exchange, noted that while the oil market appears steady on the surface right now, the underlying supply system is already stretched razor-thin — leaving Europe primed for a physical shortage “at any minute.” He cautioned that once those inventories run dry, oil prices could spike in a dramatic, non-linear jump. Currie added that the crude oil market is shifting between its typical low-demand season and peak usage period. With U.S. Memorial Day and the UK’s Spring Bank Holiday fast approaching, demand for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel is set to skyrocket, which could put even more strain on already tight supply conditions. A Societe Generale (SocGen) analyst based in France said the oil market is only clinging to a “veneer of stability” — beneath that fragile facade, inventories and logistical networks are incredibly delicate. The report also highlighted that since the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated on Feb. 28, shipments of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz — a key chokepoint carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s total oil and gas supplies — have remained restricted. Even if the strait reopens in early June, it will take at least 52 days for global supply chains to bounce back, due to the time needed for tanker transit, unloading, refining, and distribution. SocGen’s warning further stressed that if the Strait of Hormuz’s reopening is delayed until late June, the market will face deeper, more prolonged supply crunches. Global inventories could shrink even more, sending oil prices climbing to $150 per barrel and keeping them elevated for the rest of the year.