Opinion: U.S. Midterm Election Year's 'May Curse' May Return, Analysts Warn of Significant Bitcoin Price Correction

May 18: During the last two cryptocurrency bear markets, May has brought sharp Bitcoin price drops in U.S. midterm election years. In May 2018, Bitcoin slid from nearly $10,000 to around $7,000. Then in May 2022, it plummeted from roughly $40,000 to $28,500 before tumbling even further to $20,000. Now, as 2026 falls in both a crypto bear cycle and a U.S. midterm election year, fears of that historical trend repeating are on the rise. Crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar shared last Sunday: “This is the most brutal pattern Bitcoin has ever had. No one wants to hear it, but this pattern is far too consistent. During midterm election years, Bitcoin always crashes.” He believes even current positive factors—progress on the ‘CLARITY Act,’ the Trump administration’s signals of favorable crypto policies, and a potential U.S.-China trade deal—aren’t enough to break this historical cyclical pattern. If market sentiment worsens further, Enkelaar says Bitcoin could even drop to around $33,000. Meanwhile, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, is also cautious about the market’s outlook. He noted that if Bitcoin continues trading below $78,000, the chance of entering a new “surrender sell-off” phase will jump significantly, and bearish forces are already showing signs. Analysts point out that against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, contracting market leverage, and fading risk appetite, Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory may still face heavy pressure.