The current market trading activity is much lower compared to the last bear market, with fears of the market bottom being around $30,000.

May 18: Analyst Yu Jin notes current market trading enthusiasm is far lower than it was at the trough of the last bear market in December 2022. BTC: During the prior cycle’s bottom, Binance’s BTC/USDT pair averaged $20 billion in daily trading volume; today, that figure sits at only around $5 billion. Based on the retracement levels from the last bear market, the estimated bottom of this current cycle for Bitcoin is roughly $31,000. ETH: At the last cycle’s low point, ETH/USDT’s average daily trading volume was about $4 billion, while it’s now closer to $2 billion. BNB: Back at the prior cycle’s bottom, BNB/USDT’s average daily volume reached ~$50 million—nearly identical to its current level. A critical observation: Bitcoin’s current price is far higher than it was at the last bear market’s bottom. When measured in Bitcoin terms, the market’s trading enthusiasm appears even more pessimistic. BlockBeats points out that while crypto bear markets are torturous, two main factors drive this trend: first, the tokenization of high-quality real-world asset (RWA) tokens (including on-chain securitization for assets like US stocks, gold, and crude oil) is diverting significant capital and market attention away from crypto. Second, the rise of AI has demystified crypto technology, and the lack of meaningful innovation in the crypto space has led market participants to vote with their feet.