「Fed Whisperer」: US Unemployment Rate Not Rising Due to Shrinking Labor Force

On May 8, Glassnode released a report noting Bitcoin recently broke above a key resistance level to hit the $82k-$83k range — escaping the narrow trading range it’s occupied for weeks and reigniting market volatility. Option data shows short-term implied volatility (IV) has jumped sharply: the 1-week IV is up ~6 volatility points from its lows, while long-term term structure changes remain muted. This signals short-term trading demand is rebounding fast. On the sentiment and positioning front: the 25-delta skew (a metric tracking whether markets fear downside more than they crave upside in options) is moving toward neutrality. The short-end skew even rebounded to ~5% put premium after briefly balancing out, though overall downside hedging demand is fading. Notably, skew shows divergence: short-term bias remains tilted toward downside, but longer-term structure is gradually shifting bullish — a sign markets are starting to reprice upward expectations. Structurally, IV has ri

On May 8, per Bitget market data, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all advanced at the U.S. stock market open: the Dow was up 0.38%, the S&P 500 added 0.44%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.54%. Storage-focused stocks rallied, with Micron Technology (MU.O) jumping 5.5% and SanDisk (SNDK.O) rising 4.5%.

On May 8th, Robinhood launched BLEND spot trading, per its official website.

May 8 — Iran says it is still reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the war, per Iran’s Tasnim News Agency.

Nick Timiraos — the so-called "Fed Oracle" — said on May 8 that a key question the Federal Reserve grappled with four months ago is now irrelevant: whether to keep cutting rates to prop up a seemingly weakening labor market. The labor market has stabilized, and inflation — driven by tariffs and Iran tensions — has shifted from a downward trend to upward momentum. April’s nonfarm payroll report underscored this outlook shift, suggesting that as markets assess the Fed’s next policy step (currently seen as firmly on hold), attention will squarely turn to inflation data. April hiring remained strong, the unemployment rate held steady, and income growth stayed resilient — none of which gives reason for rate cuts. With the labor market keeping the Fed patient, the next policy debate will focus on when and how to move to a "neutral" stance (where the odds of rate hikes and cuts are roughly balanced). That shift will largely hinge on future inflation readings.

On May 8, White House National Economic Council (NEC) Director Hassett said there are no signs of runaway inflation, adding the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not need to hike interest rates. FX168 notes, however, that a rate cut could materialize this year given Fed Chair nominee Powell.