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The UAE Withdrawal from OPEC Shakes Power Dynamics, Putting Saudi Dominance to the Test

1 hours ago

**May 4th Update** The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its withdrawal from OPEC on May 4, removing roughly 12% of the bloc’s output and eliminating the group’s second-largest idle capacity (after Saudi Arabia). The move has sparked two key market concerns: supply stability and OPEC’s organizational cohesion. Global oil supplies were already strained by disruptions in the Hormuz Strait and the Iran conflict. The UAE’s exit further erodes OPEC+’s ability to regulate global oil markets. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman has long led OPEC+ decision-making by leveraging Saudi production capacity and royal backing from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In recent years, however, his more centralized approach has narrowed negotiating room for member nations—fueling dissatisfaction, including from the UAE. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have a long-running quota dispute. While Abu Dhabi secured a quota increase in the past, tensions have not eased fundamentally. UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei previously publicly slammed the quota system as “unfair” and has pushed aggressive production expansion plans. Analysts note the UAE’s exit will have limited near-term supply impact due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts. But once transport and production resume, its unfettered output will become a critical variable. Combined with fraying internal coordination, OPEC+’s future stability and Saudi Arabia’s dominant position face major uncertainty.
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