This Week's Macro Outlook: US-Iran Talks Enter New Phase, Economic Data to Potentially Reinforce Dovish Stance

May 4 US-Iran talks saw positive de-escalation over the weekend, though the US, Israel, and Iran remain prepared for potential conflict. With Trump launching “Operation Liberty,” the Strait of Hormuz control power struggle is set for a major turning point this week. Markets will stay on edge as peace talks and war risks hang in the balance. On the macro front, traders will focus on key US labor data next week, led by Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Key releases (ET): - Wednesday 8:15 PM: US April ADP Employment Change - Thursday 7:30 PM: US April Challenger Job Cuts - Thursday 11:00 PM: US April New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations - Friday 8:30 PM: US April Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings (YoY/MoM) - Friday 10:00 PM: US May 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Preliminary), US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary), US March Wholesale Sales (MoM) Forecasters project Friday’s April nonfarm payrolls will show solid 60,000 job gains, faster wage growth, stable unemployment, and higher labor force participation. A Bloomberg economist survey points to even stronger private payroll growth.