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OPEC+ June Production Quota to Increase by around 188,000 barrels per day, Market Predicts Significant Oil Price Surge

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**May 2 – Sources report seven OPEC+ members have reached a preliminary agreement to boost June oil production by ~188,000 barrels per day (bpd), even as the UAE exited the group. The increase aligns closely with last month’s 206,000 bpd figure (after excluding the UAE’s share), signaling OPEC+ is sticking to its usual decision-making framework. The seven countries plan an online meeting this Sunday.** Currently, US-Iran tensions have disrupted most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, hitting OPEC producers harder than the group’s agreed output targets. As a result, the latest production hike is largely symbolic. The UAE previously announced an unexpected withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1. Per PolyBeats monitoring, prediction market Polymarket shows: - 75% chance WTI crude closes at $110/bbl on any single day this month; - 45% chance for $120/bbl; - 22% chance for $130/bbl. Markets still anticipate a sharp oil price surge.
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The post-Buffett era's first Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting has begun, with the theme of "Legacy Continuance."

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Iranian Official: Willing to Negotiate with the United States but Strongly Opposes Coercion, Does Not Want Prolonged Conflict

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Fed Minutes: Rate Hike Probabilities Pivot Significantly, Fed Shifts from Signaling Rate Cuts to Neutral Stance

**May 2 –** Nick Timiraos, often dubbed the “Fed’s Mouthpiece,” reported that the Federal Reserve’s internal debate over its interest rate path has hit a critical turning point. Officials are no longer arguing about when to resume rate cuts—instead, they’re now discussing the conditions that could justify a rate hike. In the statement from Wednesday’s policy meeting, three regional Fed presidents (Dallas, Cleveland, Minneapolis) dissented, formally opposing the retention of language suggesting “the next move is more likely to be a rate cut.” Outgoing Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the committee held a “lively discussion,” noting procedural reasons kept the guidance in place for now—but emphasized the panel’s stance is shifting from dovish to neutral. He added the dissenters’ arguments “completely hold water.” The shift is driven by a sustained energy shock tied to major closures in the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike past one-off price swings that faded on their own, this supply di

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