Major Institutions Anticipate Powell Press Conference: Market Cautious of Hawkish Risks, Emphasizing "Wait-and-See Attitude"

On April 30, several institutions released outlooks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming press conference. Most see the Fed maintaining a cautious near-term stance amid improved employment and lingering inflation pressures, with an overall hawkish risk tone. - **Citi & JPMorgan**: Powell may acknowledge labor market gains while stressing PCE inflation resilience. Upside risks from energy prices and Iran’s situation tilt the Fed toward a “wait-and-see” policy. - **BNP Paribas**: With inflation risks unresolved, Powell is unlikely to proactively lay groundwork for rate cuts before his successor takes office. - **MUFG**: If the FOMC statement does not strengthen inflation risk language, Powell may signal a more hawkish tone at the press conference. - **Wells Fargo**: Powell is expected to focus on high uncertainty from the Iran conflict and its impact on the Fed’s dual mandate, noting the current policy framework supports ongoing data monitoring. - **Danske Bank**: Is watching whether Powell will disclose plans to remain a Fed governor after stepping down as chair. - **ING**: Powell will likely stick to his consistent, prudent style, avoiding comments on future policy direction to ensure market stability during the leadership transition.