Institution Warns: If the Hormuz Crisis Continues, Oil Prices Could Spike to $150

April 28th — Oil prices climbed again as U.S.-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, with WTI crude topping $100 a barrel and both WTI and Brent rising more than 2% intraday. The White House said U.S. President Trump and his national security team reviewed Iran’s latest proposal. Iran is seeking to resume shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting port blockades and ceasing hostilities. However, Trump stated sanctions will only be eased once the agreement is “100% implemented,” and the two sides have yet to reach consensus. PVM Oil Associates senior analyst Tamas Varga warned that if the conflict persists, oil hitting $150 is “not impossible.” He noted the global lack of sufficient alternative energy sources to fill supply gaps; if disruptions prolong, supply losses will outpace demand contraction’s impact. Lipow Oil Associates President Andy Lipow added that even if the conflict ends immediately, clearing mines, resolving tanker congestion, and resuming operations will take several months. The oil market is expected to need at least 4 to 6 months to stabilize. Meanwhile, several Wall Street firms cut their oil market recovery forecasts simultaneously. Goldman Sachs pushed back Gulf energy export restoration to late June, while Citigroup projects Brent crude could hit $150 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz closure continues through June’s end.